Bitcoin’s historically bullish October, dubbed
“Uptober” by traders, has seen its momentum stall. Data from CoinGlass shows
BTC is currently 2.77% below its monthly opening price, with only a 4% decline
needed to cement its worst performance in more than a decade. By comparison,
September saw a more than 5.16% increase.
In the past five years, 2021 recorded the strongest monthly
returns for October at 39% amid a booming market when prices surged to nearly
$70K. However, in 2022, the returns increased by 5%. In 2023 and 2024, the
returns were 28% and 10%, respectively. This year, May had the strongest
monthly return at 11%.
“The bulk of October’s upside tends to occur in the
second half of the month,” said network economist Timothy Peterson. He added
that a potential end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening at its
Oct. 29 meeting could provide a “huge signal” for markets.
Several factors have muted the usual October rally. Tensions over U.S.–China tariffs, low liquidity, and a series of
leveraged liquidations have capped gains.
Crypto traders remain cautiously optimistic. Markets
such as Myriad show a swing back toward bullish predictions, with odds favoring
Bitcoin reaching $120,000 before dropping to $100,000. Ethereum is also
expected to rebound toward $4,700. Despite the downturn, the possibility of a
late-month recovery keeps traders attentive.
“Uptober may not live up to its name this year, but
history shows the month can still surprise,” Peterson noted. With two weeks
remaining, the final outcome for Bitcoin in October remains open, balancing
between seasonal expectations and macroeconomic headwinds.
From another fundamental perspective: historically,
Bitcoin’s price rallies followed halving events, which cut block rewards in
half and created sharp supply shocks that fueled bull markets, according to Bitcoin Magazine.
5% of capital rotation from Gold to Bitcoin can send the BTC price to $242,391
However, the current cycle has unfolded differently: after
the most recent halving, Bitcoin spent five months in sideways consolidation
rather than seeing an immediate post-halving surge. While prices have since gained momentum, questions have been raised about whether the halving still drives market cycles as it once did.
The current cycle has also already exceeded the
duration from cycle low to cycle high, as seen in prior bull markets. The 2018–2022
cycle peaked 1,059 days after its bear market low, and Bitcoin has now
surpassed that timeframe, approaching the length of the 2017 cycle.
Bitcoin’s historically bullish October, dubbed
“Uptober” by traders, has seen its momentum stall. Data from CoinGlass shows
BTC is currently 2.77% below its monthly opening price, with only a 4% decline
needed to cement its worst performance in more than a decade. By comparison,
September saw a more than 5.16% increase.
In the past five years, 2021 recorded the strongest monthly
returns for October at 39% amid a booming market when prices surged to nearly
$70K. However, in 2022, the returns increased by 5%. In 2023 and 2024, the
returns were 28% and 10%, respectively. This year, May had the strongest
monthly return at 11%.
“The bulk of October’s upside tends to occur in the
second half of the month,” said network economist Timothy Peterson. He added
that a potential end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening at its
Oct. 29 meeting could provide a “huge signal” for markets.
Several factors have muted the usual October rally. Tensions over U.S.–China tariffs, low liquidity, and a series of
leveraged liquidations have capped gains.
Crypto traders remain cautiously optimistic. Markets
such as Myriad show a swing back toward bullish predictions, with odds favoring
Bitcoin reaching $120,000 before dropping to $100,000. Ethereum is also
expected to rebound toward $4,700. Despite the downturn, the possibility of a
late-month recovery keeps traders attentive.
“Uptober may not live up to its name this year, but
history shows the month can still surprise,” Peterson noted. With two weeks
remaining, the final outcome for Bitcoin in October remains open, balancing
between seasonal expectations and macroeconomic headwinds.
From another fundamental perspective: historically,
Bitcoin’s price rallies followed halving events, which cut block rewards in
half and created sharp supply shocks that fueled bull markets, according to Bitcoin Magazine.
5% of capital rotation from Gold to Bitcoin can send the BTC price to $242,391
However, the current cycle has unfolded differently: after
the most recent halving, Bitcoin spent five months in sideways consolidation
rather than seeing an immediate post-halving surge. While prices have since gained momentum, questions have been raised about whether the halving still drives market cycles as it once did.
The current cycle has also already exceeded the
duration from cycle low to cycle high, as seen in prior bull markets. The 2018–2022
cycle peaked 1,059 days after its bear market low, and Bitcoin has now
surpassed that timeframe, approaching the length of the 2017 cycle.
Jared Kirui is an Editor at Finance Magnates with more than five years of experience in financial journalism. He covers online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto industries with a focus on companies, regulation and compliance, executive moves, trading technology, and market analysis.
His work has been featured in other media outlets, including Benzinga, ZyCrypto, The Distributed, and The Daily Hodl.
Education:
Bachelor of Commerce degree (Finance option), University of Nairobi
Will Bitcoin Price Fall Below $50K? BTC Drops to 4-Month Low Near $61,300 in a 13% Three-Day Slide
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The trades that taught me the most aren't the ones that worked. They're the ones that didn't — or the ones I almost caught and didn't have the nerve to ride. In this session, I'll tell you about the Brexit miss, the SNB shocker that nearly handed me a 5400% return, the BoJ surprise that punched me in the gut, and a few wins along the way. Each story carries a lesson, but the lessons aren't the point. Everyone who trades long enough collects a portfolio of moments like these; what separates the people who stay in the game is what they do with them.
The trades that taught me the most aren't the ones that worked. They're the ones that didn't — or the ones I almost caught and didn't have the nerve to ride. In this session, I'll tell you about the Brexit miss, the SNB shocker that nearly handed me a 5400% return, the BoJ surprise that punched me in the gut, and a few wins along the way. Each story carries a lesson, but the lessons aren't the point. Everyone who trades long enough collects a portfolio of moments like these; what separates the people who stay in the game is what they do with them.
The trades that taught me the most aren't the ones that worked. They're the ones that didn't — or the ones I almost caught and didn't have the nerve to ride. In this session, I'll tell you about the Brexit miss, the SNB shocker that nearly handed me a 5400% return, the BoJ surprise that punched me in the gut, and a few wins along the way. Each story carries a lesson, but the lessons aren't the point. Everyone who trades long enough collects a portfolio of moments like these; what separates the people who stay in the game is what they do with them.
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The trades that taught me the most aren't the ones that worked. They're the ones that didn't — or the ones I almost caught and didn't have the nerve to ride. In this session, I'll tell you about the Brexit miss, the SNB shocker that nearly handed me a 5400% return, the BoJ surprise that punched me in the gut, and a few wins along the way. Each story carries a lesson, but the lessons aren't the point. Everyone who trades long enough collects a portfolio of moments like these; what separates the people who stay in the game is what they do with them.
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If AI is the engine, data is the fuel. Without quality, accessible data, AI cannot work well; and without the right mindset, data remains just numbers instead of insight. In this session, leading experts will explore how AI and data are democratizing opportunities for businesses and personal growth. Discover practical ways to make AI accessible today, anticipate its transformative impact on African markets, and learn actionable steps to prepare for what's next. Let's talk about:
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-AI tools to elevate trading or business strategies
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-Emerging AI and data trends in Africa and their economic ripple effects
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-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
-AI tools to elevate trading or business strategies
-How to access and maximise the power of data and AI
-Emerging AI and data trends in Africa and their economic ripple effects
If AI is the engine, data is the fuel. Without quality, accessible data, AI cannot work well; and without the right mindset, data remains just numbers instead of insight. In this session, leading experts will explore how AI and data are democratizing opportunities for businesses and personal growth. Discover practical ways to make AI accessible today, anticipate its transformative impact on African markets, and learn actionable steps to prepare for what's next. Let's talk about:
-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
-AI tools to elevate trading or business strategies
-How to access and maximise the power of data and AI
-Emerging AI and data trends in Africa and their economic ripple effects
If AI is the engine, data is the fuel. Without quality, accessible data, AI cannot work well; and without the right mindset, data remains just numbers instead of insight. In this session, leading experts will explore how AI and data are democratizing opportunities for businesses and personal growth. Discover practical ways to make AI accessible today, anticipate its transformative impact on African markets, and learn actionable steps to prepare for what's next. Let's talk about:
-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
-AI tools to elevate trading or business strategies
-How to access and maximise the power of data and AI
-Emerging AI and data trends in Africa and their economic ripple effects
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-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
-AI tools to elevate trading or business strategies
-How to access and maximise the power of data and AI
-Emerging AI and data trends in Africa and their economic ripple effects
If AI is the engine, data is the fuel. Without quality, accessible data, AI cannot work well; and without the right mindset, data remains just numbers instead of insight. In this session, leading experts will explore how AI and data are democratizing opportunities for businesses and personal growth. Discover practical ways to make AI accessible today, anticipate its transformative impact on African markets, and learn actionable steps to prepare for what's next. Let's talk about:
-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
-AI tools to elevate trading or business strategies
-How to access and maximise the power of data and AI
-Emerging AI and data trends in Africa and their economic ripple effects
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Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
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-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
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Agentic Inequality: Democratizing Financial Access Through AI & Blockchain
Agentic Inequality: Democratizing Financial Access Through AI & Blockchain
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Agentic Inequality: Democratizing Financial Access Through AI & Blockchain
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
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-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
