IG Group Holdings expects total revenue of about £240 million for the three months ended 30 September 2026, down roughly 14% from £280.1 million a year earlier, according to a trading update issued today (Friday).
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Net trading revenue is expected to be about £210 million, compared with £249.5 million in Q3 2025. The Board now expects 2026 total revenue growth in a mid-single-digit per cent range year-on-year.
“Lower Q3 revenue reflected reduced OTC revenue retention in less supportive market conditions,” said Breon Corcoran, IG's CEO, adding: “I remain confident in meeting our medium-term guidance.”
OTC retention below the recent average
Within OTC derivatives, revenue retention in Q3 was approximately 70%. The group has averaged about 80% since introducing market-making optimisation measures in H2 2025.
Read more: Five Things to Know About IG's New All-in-One App
IG said the Board remains confident these measures will structurally increase OTC revenue retention over the medium to long term, with greater expected short-term variability.
OTC net trading revenue was about £155 million, around 18% lower year-on-year, while OTC customer income in creased by about 8%. Organic first trades rose more than 25% and organic active customers about 17%.
Non-recurring costs tied to the redomicile to Jersey and the restructuring from the organisational model announced on 8 July 2026 are expected to total about £30 million for 2026. Of that, £16.4 million was reported in H1. Excluding those costs and Underdog acquisition expenses contingent on closing, IG expects its 2026 EBITDA margin in the low-40s per cent range.
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Underdog posts Q3 gain ahead of key quarter
Q3 Net revenue of IG’s prediction markets subsidiary, Underdog, rose over 100% year-on-year to approximately $105 million. The seasonally important Q4 accounted for more than a third of Underdog's revenue in 2025.
IG agreed to acquire Underdog for up to about $1.3 billion on 30 July, with closing expected in late 2026 or early 2027, pending regulatory and antitrust approvals.
Finance Magnates reported that IG has 1.4 million customers globally, while Underdog has more than 11 million registered accounts, with over 5 million depositing customers. The broker said it wants to "create a coherent customer funnel" from prediction markets to mainstream financial markets.
The deal was announced alongside IG's first-half results, in which total revenue increased 18% to £642.8 million. It followed IG's US entry in 2021, when it acquired tastytrade for $1 billion.
Corcoran addressed the strategy that day. He told analysts in July that "the biggest unlock this year is our unified proposition."
