Bitcoin rose 6.7% on Monday to close at $86,620 on Binance, its highest daily close since January 28, after trading as high as $87,396. On Tuesday morning it eased 1.3% to about $85,500 by 06:37 UTC.
The rally came as a fourth straight fall in oil prices pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield back below 5%, while roughly $648 million of bearish bets were liquidated during the day, according to CoinGlass data cited by 24/7 Wall St. Strategy also disclosed a purchase of 950 BTC.
For my chart, Monday's close matters more than the intraday high. It fired the trigger I set out last week and opened the way toward the $98,000 to $99,500 resistance zone.
The move started from a technical milestone. Bitcoin ended the week on Sunday at $81,159, above its 50-week moving average of about $78,786. It was the first such weekly close since November 9, 2025, according to Galaxy Research.
Once the price cleared $84,000, about $262 million of short positions were liquidated within an hour, CoinGlass data show. Corporate buyers returned at the same time.
Strategy bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million at an average price of $79,670, lifting its holdings to 846,000 BTC, according to a Form 8-K filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Strive separately disclosed a purchase of 1,355 BTC.
What Does My Bitcoin Chart Show Now?
In my September 18 analysis, I treated a daily close above $82,614 as the signal that would activate a move toward $98,068 to $99,486. Monday's close at $86,620 met that condition with room to spare.
The close also took bitcoin out of the consolidation that had held it between roughly $75,300 and $82,600 since late August. That range formed after the August breakout and capped every rally for almost four weeks.
Bitcoin broke out of its late-August consolidation on Monday. Source: TradingView
Why I Expect a Pullback Before the Next Leg
My base case is not a straight line higher. Textbook technical analysis says a broken resistance often gets retested from above, and I expect bitcoin to pull back toward $82,614, about 3.4% below Tuesday's price.
If buyers defend that level, the old ceiling turns into a floor. That change of polarity is what would confirm the breakout, and it would be a healthier base for the next leg than a vertical move without a retest.
The next target is the $98,068 to $99,486 zone, just above the January 14 peak of $97,924. From $82,614, that is an upside of 19% to 20%. It also puts the psychological $100,000 level, about 17% above the current price, back within reach.
Below the breakout level, bitcoin has a thick cushion. The 50-day EMA at $75,426 and the 200-day EMA at $73,643 sit close to the $75,339 support, and the 50-day line has been above the 200-day since September 12.
Scenario
Confirmation
Target
Invalidation
Base case: retest and continuation
Pullback holds above $82,614 on a daily close
$98,068 to $99,486, then $100,000
Daily close below $82,614
Extension without retest
New daily high above $87,396
$98,068 to $99,486
Return below $82,614
Failed breakout
Daily close back below $82,614
$75,339 and the 50/200-day EMA cluster
Recovery above $82,614
What Are Analysts Watching After the Breakout?
Analysts at Bitfinex said the rally has lifted bitcoin about 50% from its July 1 low, which was $57,800 on Binance. In the firm's view, recoveries of that size have historically marked the start of new bull markets rather than bear-market bounces.
They called the $85,000 area "a litmus test" for the whole move, in comments sent to FinanceMagnates.com. They also noted that bitcoin has moved above the corporate treasury cost basis of about $80,500, so public-company holdings are back in profit on aggregate.
Bitfinex said three signals would confirm the breakout: net taker buying, rising open interest measured in coins, and short-term holders sending fewer than 20,000 BTC a day to exchanges.
ETF demand has been uneven. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in a net $6.21 million in the week to September 19, after $746 million of outflows on September 15 and 16, 24/7 Wall St reported.
Bank forecasts are split. As I noted last week, Standard Chartered expects $100,000 by the end of 2026.
Citi has a 12-month target of $82,000, a level bitcoin already trades above.
Bitcoin has also kept rising through the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 and a failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, both of which came last week.
What Would Break the Bullish Case?
The scenario fails only if bitcoin closes back below the current support near $82,000, specifically $82,614 on my chart. That would put the price back inside the late-August range and point toward $75,339 and the moving averages.
The next macro tests come quickly: the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment reading on September 25 and the August PCE inflation report on September 30.
Bitcoin rose 6.7% on Monday to close at $86,620 on Binance, its highest daily close since January 28, after trading as high as $87,396. On Tuesday morning it eased 1.3% to about $85,500 by 06:37 UTC.
The rally came as a fourth straight fall in oil prices pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield back below 5%, while roughly $648 million of bearish bets were liquidated during the day, according to CoinGlass data cited by 24/7 Wall St. Strategy also disclosed a purchase of 950 BTC.
For my chart, Monday's close matters more than the intraday high. It fired the trigger I set out last week and opened the way toward the $98,000 to $99,500 resistance zone.
The move started from a technical milestone. Bitcoin ended the week on Sunday at $81,159, above its 50-week moving average of about $78,786. It was the first such weekly close since November 9, 2025, according to Galaxy Research.
Once the price cleared $84,000, about $262 million of short positions were liquidated within an hour, CoinGlass data show. Corporate buyers returned at the same time.
Strategy bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million at an average price of $79,670, lifting its holdings to 846,000 BTC, according to a Form 8-K filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Strive separately disclosed a purchase of 1,355 BTC.
What Does My Bitcoin Chart Show Now?
In my September 18 analysis, I treated a daily close above $82,614 as the signal that would activate a move toward $98,068 to $99,486. Monday's close at $86,620 met that condition with room to spare.
The close also took bitcoin out of the consolidation that had held it between roughly $75,300 and $82,600 since late August. That range formed after the August breakout and capped every rally for almost four weeks.
Bitcoin broke out of its late-August consolidation on Monday. Source: TradingView
Why I Expect a Pullback Before the Next Leg
My base case is not a straight line higher. Textbook technical analysis says a broken resistance often gets retested from above, and I expect bitcoin to pull back toward $82,614, about 3.4% below Tuesday's price.
If buyers defend that level, the old ceiling turns into a floor. That change of polarity is what would confirm the breakout, and it would be a healthier base for the next leg than a vertical move without a retest.
The next target is the $98,068 to $99,486 zone, just above the January 14 peak of $97,924. From $82,614, that is an upside of 19% to 20%. It also puts the psychological $100,000 level, about 17% above the current price, back within reach.
Below the breakout level, bitcoin has a thick cushion. The 50-day EMA at $75,426 and the 200-day EMA at $73,643 sit close to the $75,339 support, and the 50-day line has been above the 200-day since September 12.
Scenario
Confirmation
Target
Invalidation
Base case: retest and continuation
Pullback holds above $82,614 on a daily close
$98,068 to $99,486, then $100,000
Daily close below $82,614
Extension without retest
New daily high above $87,396
$98,068 to $99,486
Return below $82,614
Failed breakout
Daily close back below $82,614
$75,339 and the 50/200-day EMA cluster
Recovery above $82,614
What Are Analysts Watching After the Breakout?
Analysts at Bitfinex said the rally has lifted bitcoin about 50% from its July 1 low, which was $57,800 on Binance. In the firm's view, recoveries of that size have historically marked the start of new bull markets rather than bear-market bounces.
They called the $85,000 area "a litmus test" for the whole move, in comments sent to FinanceMagnates.com. They also noted that bitcoin has moved above the corporate treasury cost basis of about $80,500, so public-company holdings are back in profit on aggregate.
Bitfinex said three signals would confirm the breakout: net taker buying, rising open interest measured in coins, and short-term holders sending fewer than 20,000 BTC a day to exchanges.
ETF demand has been uneven. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in a net $6.21 million in the week to September 19, after $746 million of outflows on September 15 and 16, 24/7 Wall St reported.
Bank forecasts are split. As I noted last week, Standard Chartered expects $100,000 by the end of 2026.
Citi has a 12-month target of $82,000, a level bitcoin already trades above.
Bitcoin has also kept rising through the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 and a failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, both of which came last week.
What Would Break the Bullish Case?
The scenario fails only if bitcoin closes back below the current support near $82,000, specifically $82,614 on my chart. That would put the price back inside the late-August range and point toward $75,339 and the moving averages.
The next macro tests come quickly: the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment reading on September 25 and the August PCE inflation report on September 30.
Damian Chmiel is a Senior Analyst & Editor at Finance Magnates with more than 15 years of experience in the CFD and online trading industry. Active as both a trader and journalist since 2010, he focuses on broker coverage, fintech innovation, and regulatory developments across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
His work includes interviews with C-level leaders at major brokerages and fintech platforms, as well as co-authoring Finance Magnates’ quarterly industry benchmarking reports. Damian’s reporting is data-driven, market-aware, and grounded in direct industry engagement. His analysis and commentary have also been cited by external media outlets, including Investing.com, Binance, The Asset, Stockhead, and Dispatch.
Education:
MA in Finance and Accounting, Cracow University of Economics
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Golden Cross Nears as $84K Blocks $100K per BTC
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Can you memorise the textbook? That’s not necessarily the point.
Can you memorise the textbook? That’s not necessarily the point.
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Take brokerage models. Knowing what a brokerage model is only gets you so far. What companies really need is an understanding of how to build one and how it can be applied.
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What matters is whether you can retain the information, understand it and actually apply it.
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That kind of practical understanding goes beyond simply reading a textbook.
#FinanceMagnates #FMAcademy #Fintech #FinanceCareers #ProfessionalDevelopment
What matters is whether you can retain the information, understand it and actually apply it.
Take brokerage models. Knowing what a brokerage model is only gets you so far. What companies really need is an understanding of how to build one and how it can be applied.
That kind of practical understanding goes beyond simply reading a textbook.
#FinanceMagnates #FMAcademy #Fintech #FinanceCareers #ProfessionalDevelopment
What matters is whether you can retain the information, understand it and actually apply it.
Take brokerage models. Knowing what a brokerage model is only gets you so far. What companies really need is an understanding of how to build one and how it can be applied.
That kind of practical understanding goes beyond simply reading a textbook.
#FinanceMagnates #FMAcademy #Fintech #FinanceCareers #ProfessionalDevelopment
What matters is whether you can retain the information, understand it and actually apply it.
Take brokerage models. Knowing what a brokerage model is only gets you so far. What companies really need is an understanding of how to build one and how it can be applied.
That kind of practical understanding goes beyond simply reading a textbook.
#FinanceMagnates #FMAcademy #Fintech #FinanceCareers #ProfessionalDevelopment
What matters is whether you can retain the information, understand it and actually apply it.
Take brokerage models. Knowing what a brokerage model is only gets you so far. What companies really need is an understanding of how to build one and how it can be applied.
That kind of practical understanding goes beyond simply reading a textbook.
#FinanceMagnates #FMAcademy #Fintech #FinanceCareers #ProfessionalDevelopment