prediction markets
Inside the Prediction Markets: Brokers Double Down as States Challenge the CFTC
- Novig became the first prediction market platform to sponsor an individual MLB franchise this week, extending team-level deals beyond the hockey and combat-sports partnerships.
- The announcement landed alongside IG Group's $1.3 billion acquisition of Underdog and a letter from 44 state attorneys general asking the CFTC to withdraw its sports-contract rule.
Friday, 31/07/2026 | 19:29 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
New York Mets Sign Novig as Prediction Market Partner. Deal Follows Federal Nod for Sports Event Contracts
- Novig's CFTC registration lets it offer sports event contracts nationwide from a single federal licence, bypassing state-by-state sportsbook approval
- The Mets deal makes Novig the first Major League Baseball team-level prediction market partner, ahead of the platform's planned August launch.
Friday, 31/07/2026 | 16:59 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Rothera Adds $17 Million as Robinhood Event Revenue Reaches $156 Million
- Event-contract activity exceeded 13.6 billion contracts in Q2, more than ten times the year-earlier level.
- Rothera contributed $17 million after its June launch, adding exchange and clearing infrastructure through Robinhood’s Susquehanna joint venture.
Thursday, 30/07/2026 | 19:27 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Are Beginning to Mirror the Retail Economics Long Seen in CFDs
- Kalshi combos carried an average implied probability of 9%, while fewer than 3% of World Cup final combinations settled “Yes”, Bloomberg found.
- Prediction markets match customers with market makers rather than warehouse risk like CFD providers, but both show a pricing advantage for professional participants.
Tuesday, 28/07/2026 | 18:50 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Rothera Joins Peers in Expanding Trade Surveillance for Prediction Markets
- The prediction markets platform plans to use Validus across fully collateralised and margined products.
- Novig and Kalshi have also added external surveillance tools to identify abusive patterns and suspicious user activity.
Tuesday, 28/07/2026 | 17:11 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Fanatics Brings Prediction Markets Infrastructure In-House With BGC Deal
- The platform will acquire a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC, bringing the listing and clearing of prediction markets under its own control.
- Fanatics Markets is a prediction markets platform that allows users to trade event-based contracts via Crypto.com’s CFTC-registered derivatives exchange.
Monday, 27/07/2026 | 14:31 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
tastytrade Follows Robinhood, moomoo into CFTC Regulated Prediction Markets
- New contracts cover Fed decisions, inflation, jobs data, crypto, commodities and major market indicators.
- The firm becomes the first brokerage to launch on Apex Fintech Solutions' turnkey FCM infrastructure.
Monday, 27/07/2026 | 13:55 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
MiCA Is Not Only for Crypto. It Will Also Decide Prediction Markets’ European Future
- Alexandru Badea, Senior Regional Director at NAGA, says the European Commission's MiCA consultation is a rare chance for the prediction market industry to influence future regulation
- While the European regulator is actively signalling its direction through prediction markets, the industry remains silent, which will be read as consent.
Friday, 24/07/2026 | 04:45 GMT by
Badea Alexandru Gabriel
Market Makers Can Access Kalshi Through Existing Talos Trading Workflows
- Market makers and hedge funds using Talos can now trade Kalshi's prediction markets and US-regulated crypto perpetuals without building a separate connection.
- The rollout also gives firms access to algorithmic execution, RFQ block trading and multi-leg strategies, with broker distribution planned for later this year.
Wednesday, 22/07/2026 | 14:05 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Event Contracts Gain Another Sign of Maturity as Webull Adds them to Paper Trading
- Webull has added event contracts to its paper trading platform alongside stocks, options, crypto, futures and bonds.
- Simulated event-contract environments are increasingly supporting investor education, product testing and developer workflows across the trading industry.
Tuesday, 21/07/2026 | 19:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Market Tournaments Reach Prop Trading as Tradeify Attracts 30,000 Participants on Plaee’s Platform
- Tradeify’s tournament used simulated prediction markets, allowing traders to compete with virtual capital for funded accounts and cash prizes.
- Plaee is applying the same prediction-market infrastructure to both regulated event markets and simulated trading competitions, broadening its use cases.
Tuesday, 21/07/2026 | 15:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Independent Prediction Markets Converged on Nearly Identical World Cup Probabilities as Trading Hit Record Highs
- Polymarket and Kalshi independently priced Spain at almost identical probabilities ahead of the World Cup final.
- The World Cup proved that independent prediction markets can arrive at similar prices even without shared liquidity or participants.
Monday, 20/07/2026 | 20:21 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the prediction markets: Malta Drafts Rules as Blockchain.com and Jump Trading Expand Their Reach
- Malta is developing the EU’s first dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, proposing a licensing regime outside both financial services and gambling law.
- Blockchain.com and Jump Trading expanded their commitment to prediction markets this week through distribution and trading infrastructure.
Friday, 17/07/2026 | 19:45 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Jump Trading Expands Prediction Markets Team as “Cultural Alpha” Becomes Part of the Quant Stack
- Jump is recruiting beyond its traditional quant pipeline, seeking traders with expertise in sports, politics and other event-driven markets where historical data is limited.
- The hiring push reflects growing institutional investment in prediction markets, as market makers expand liquidity operations on platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.
Friday, 17/07/2026 | 14:24 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Extends Its Exchange Model to GPU Pricing
- Kalshi has introduced GPU forward curves for Nvidia B200, H200 and A100 chips, expanding its exchange infrastructure into AI compute.
- The benchmarks are intended to support OTC pricing and risk management, showing how exchange infrastructure can be applied beyond traditional prediction markets.
Tuesday, 14/07/2026 | 18:38 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Blockchain.com Taps Polymarket to Capture Event-Trading Demand Inside Its Brokerage App
- Blockchain.com users can now access Polymarket event contracts without moving funds to a separate platform.
- The deal gives Polymarket access to Blockchain.com’s 43 million verified users and keeps prediction-market activity inside the brokerage app.
Tuesday, 14/07/2026 | 13:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Malta Tried This with Crypto. Now It’s Trying Again with Prediction Markets
- Alexandru Badea, Senior Regional Director at NAGA, argues Malta's prediction-market plan mirrors its 2018 crypto playbook.
- Malta may win first-mover status again, but history suggests Brussels will ultimately define prediction markets.
Tuesday, 14/07/2026 | 12:00 GMT by
Badea Alexandru Gabriel
Kalshi Launches Pro Terminal as It Moves Deeper Into Professional Derivatives Trading
- Kalshi Pro adds advanced charting, deeper order-book data and multi-leg order management for active and institutional traders.
- The terminal expands Kalshi’s professional offering alongside regulated crypto perpetuals and Clear Street’s clearing access for hedge funds.
Monday, 13/07/2026 | 13:17 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Expands Perpetuals as World Cup Trading Hits New Highs
- Kalshi is exploring perpetual futures on metals, foreign exchange, and energy after processing $16.1 billion in volume since May.
- A single World Cup match generated about $460 million in prediction market trading, highlighting the growing role of live sports in platform activity.
Friday, 10/07/2026 | 19:05 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Plus500 Placed Its Sports Bet Just in Time as World Cup Shatters Prediction Market Records
- Polymarket's "World Cup Winner" market has attracted $4 billion, the largest single market in the platform's history.
- Plus500 added Kalshi's sports contracts to its US platform weeks before the tournament.
Monday, 06/07/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Europe Closes Ranks as Wall Street Builds New Products
- European regulators stepped up scrutiny of prediction markets.
- DraftKings completed its in-house exchange, while Cboe proposed bringing prediction-style contracts into the U.S. securities market.
Friday, 03/07/2026 | 16:40 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Europe Has No Licensed Prediction Markets. ESMA Just Raised the Entry Bar
- ESMA did not ban prediction markets in Europe, but it made legal classification the starting point for any future launch.
- Whether a platform needs MiFID II, MiCA or a national gambling licence now depends on how each event contract is classified under EU law.
Friday, 03/07/2026 | 12:41 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
What's In a Name? ESMA Says Prediction Markets Are Still Binary Options
- ESMA has reminded firms that "event contracts" qualifying as financial instruments fall under existing binary options bans, regardless of what they are branded as commercially.
- The regulator says distributing such contracts to any client, including non-retail, requires MiFID II authorisation, and warns that circumventing the rules is prohibited.
Friday, 03/07/2026 | 07:36 GMT by
Arnab Shome
Prediction Markets Top $50B Monthly Volume. Will It Last Beyond the World Cup?
- Prediction markets topped $50 billion in monthly volume for the first time, with June activity up 75% from May.
- The World Cup drove much of the surge, so the real test is whether trading activity stays elevated after the tournament ends.
Thursday, 02/07/2026 | 16:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Cboe Wants to Turn Company KPIs Into Tradable Yes-or-No Options
- Cboe is seeking SEC approval for binary options tied to company KPIs, including revenue, shipments and other business metrics.
- If approved, brokers could offer prediction-style exposure through existing securities accounts instead of standalone prediction market platforms.
Thursday, 02/07/2026 | 09:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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