prediction markets
Oil Traders Turn to Prediction Markets for Signals, Raising Integrity Concerns
- Prediction market data is entering trading models as an additional signal alongside traditional inputs.
- Its use raises concerns about insider information, liquidity and how such signals are formed.
Thursday, 02/04/2026 | 10:40 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Match-Trader Enters Prediction Markets With White-Label Offering for Brokers
- Match-Trade Technologies says the product runs on the same engine that has powered its FX and CFD infrastructure for more than 13 years.
- Global prediction market trading volume crossed $44 billion in 2025, drawing a growing number of infrastructure vendors and retail brokers.
Thursday, 02/04/2026 | 10:31 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
CFTC Says Prediction Markets Are Derivatives, Not Gambling - and Insider Trading Laws Apply
- The regulator is pushing back on the idea that prediction markets operate outside existing trading rules.
- For firms, the focus shifts to monitoring how non-public information is used in event-based trading.
Wednesday, 01/04/2026 | 10:55 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Launches Ad Campaign in Washington D.C. but Not Everyone Is Buying It
- The campaign targets policymakers and regulators, aiming to separate Kalshi from offshore platforms.
- While the message stresses compliance, doubts remain over how insider trading rules can be enforced in practice.
Tuesday, 31/03/2026 | 12:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Senator Warren Leads Push to Tighten Insider Trading Enforcement in Prediction Markets
- Lawmakers are asking regulators to clarify how insider trading rules apply to event-based contracts.
- For brokers and platforms, the focus is shifting toward monitoring, detection and internal controls.
Tuesday, 31/03/2026 | 09:32 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Pushes Prediction Markets Into Derivatives Territory With Margin Plans
- Margin would let institutions trade event contracts with less upfront capital, improving capital efficiency.
- The feature is not yet live and will initially be limited, with approval and liquidity remaining key constraints.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 13:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Analysts Say $200 Oil Is Possible - Prediction Markets Show It’s Not Probable
- Analysts model how prices could react under disruption, while markets assign probabilities to those scenarios.
- Event contracts imply that even severe supply shocks are not currently seen as the central outcome.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 10:57 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
ICE Expands $1.6B Stake in Polymarket Despite Ongoing Regulatory Scrutiny
- ICE is expanding its Polymarket stake while also packaging prediction market data into signals for institutional use.
- The move highlights growing interest from infrastructure providers, even as regulatory uncertainty remains unresolved.
Friday, 27/03/2026 | 17:42 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
ARK and Kalshi Test Prediction Markets as a Research Tool
- ARK will create custom event contracts to track macro trends, company metrics and scientific milestones.
- Early data suggests predictive value, but signal quality depends on liquidity and market structure.
Friday, 27/03/2026 | 11:04 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Go Nuclear, but Trust Push Continues
- Prediction market punters reportedly placed significant bets on a nuclear strike, while Polymarket partners with Palantir for analytics and monitoring of sports markets. Paul Golden explores the impact of the controversial AI giant.
- He also delved into Boris Johnson's mind following his recent comments on crypto and the institutional adoption of stablecoins.
Wednesday, 25/03/2026 | 15:49 GMT by
Paul Golden
Only $500K+ Traders Make Money on Prediction Markets, Report Finds
- Retail traders post deeper losses on prediction markets than on sportsbooks, according to the report.
- Performance is concentrated at the top, with most users consistently losing money.
Wednesday, 25/03/2026 | 10:39 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
FIS Adds Clearing for Prediction Market Contracts, Building on OTC Trading
- Institutions can now execute, custody and clear prediction contracts without relying on retail platforms.
- The setup links OTC trading with clearing infrastructure, but liquidity and regulation remain uneven.
Tuesday, 24/03/2026 | 17:33 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
BitGo and Susquehanna Launch OTC Trading for Prediction Market Contracts
- The OTC setup lets institutions trade prediction contracts directly from custody accounts without using retail platforms.
- The model improves access but still relies on bilateral pricing and operates within an evolving regulatory framework.
Tuesday, 24/03/2026 | 16:12 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Pressure Builds on Sports Prediction Contracts as Indian Gaming Association Backs Senate Bill
- Sports contracts drive a large share of prediction market volume and are now directly targeted by lawmakers and gaming groups.
- For brokers, the key issue is whether these products remain available — and under which regulatory framework.
Tuesday, 24/03/2026 | 14:06 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Rival CEOs Back New Fund Focused on Prediction Market Infrastructure
- The fund will back market makers, data providers and trading tools needed for institutional participation.
- Rising funding, bank interest and regulatory alignment point to a growing ecosystem around prediction markets.
Tuesday, 24/03/2026 | 11:28 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
U.S. Bill Targets Sports Prediction Contracts, Creating Uncertainty for Brokers
- The bill could force platforms to drop sports contracts or shift them to state-level regulation.
- For brokers, the key question is whether existing product plans and integrations will remain viable under changing rules.
Monday, 23/03/2026 | 10:49 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Starting to Play by the Rules
- Zero-fee trading, new rules, and state actions show prediction markets are starting to operate like real markets.
- As regulators tighten oversight and liquidity concentrates, institutions are still watching — but not trading.
Friday, 20/03/2026 | 14:32 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket’s MLB Deal Turns Prediction Markets Into Something Brokers Can Use
- Licensed data and clearer rules make event contracts easier to package as broker-ready products.
- Turnkey infrastructure means firms can add prediction markets without building from scratch.
Friday, 20/03/2026 | 09:35 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Moves into Sports-Linked Prediction Markets With “First-Ever” MLB Agreement
- The regulator partners with MLB ahead of 2026 season on market integrity issues.
- The MOU allows information sharing under law to support incident response and identification of emerging risks.
Thursday, 19/03/2026 | 15:04 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Funds Are Watching Prediction Markets But Not Using Them Yet, Report Finds
- Funds are testing prediction market data in arbitrage and macro signals, not as a core trading input.
- Fragmented data and integration challenges are slowing institutional use despite growing attention.
Thursday, 19/03/2026 | 09:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Banks Begin Applying Insider Trading Rules to Prediction Markets
- Internal policy reviews mark one of the first signs that prediction markets are entering formal corporate oversight.
- Banks are beginning to treat event-based trading as a potential compliance risk rather than a fringe product.
Tuesday, 17/03/2026 | 10:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket Grabs Nearly 55% of Prediction Markets as Iran Bets Test CFTC Crackdown
- According to Token Terminal, Iran-linked event contracts have driven record trading volumes in the industry.
- Some traders reportedly made about $1 million betting on a U.S. strike on Iran.
- Amid the boom, reports emerged of gamblers issuing threats to sway prediction markets bets.
Monday, 16/03/2026 | 15:27 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Prediction Markets Are Turning Into a Bot Playground
- A review of Polymarket’s leaderboard suggests many of the most profitable wallets are automated trading systems.
- Arbitrage traders extracted about $40 million from Polymarket in a year by exploiting structural pricing inefficiencies.
Monday, 16/03/2026 | 14:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
MEXC Brings Zero-Fee Trading to Prediction Markets
- Event-based trading is spreading from niche platforms to major exchanges as competition shifts toward pricing and infrastructure.
- Coinbase and Crypto.com have already launched regulated prediction markets, with Kraken and Robinhood preparing similar products.
Monday, 16/03/2026 | 11:44 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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