Polymarket has added more detail to its market-integrity programme as the 2026 US midterm elections approach. The new Global Head of Investigations and Intelligence, Shana Bautista, told Reuters the platform has systems in place to detect anomalous trading activity.
Bautista, a former FBI investigator and Coinbase analyst, joined Polymarket in June, as prediction markets faced scrutiny over insider-information risks, election-related contracts and access to offshore platforms by US users.
Polymarket Outlines Its Monitoring System
Polymarket plans to publish a web page explaining how its market-integrity programme operates. According to Bautista, the system includes machine learning, blockchain analytics, trade surveillance, open-source research and third-party tools.
“The market integrity program itself is not new, but what we’re putting on the record now is considerably more detail about how it operates,” she told Reuters.
The company says it has referred more than 100 cases to law enforcement. Those referrals include a wallet used by a US soldier who reportedly used classified information to bet on the potential capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, and possible insider bets linked to US military actions in Iran.
US Access Remains a Regulatory Issue
The surveillance discussion is also related to Polymarket’s US access problem. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined the platform in 2022 for failing to register with the agency and required the company to block US users from its international platform.
Polymarket continues to operate a large international, blockchain-based marketplace, where trades are visible on-chain but wallet holders are pseudonymous.
Bautista told Reuters she believes the company’s systems block the “vast majority” of US users from accessing that platform. That claim remains important because analysts and regulators have continued to question whether US users can reach offshore prediction-market venues despite geoblocking.
Under the Trump administration, federal regulators dropped a probe into whether Polymarket had breached its 2022 settlement, and Chief Executive Shayne Coplan said the company had been cleared of wrongdoing.
Polymarket has also re-entered the US by acquiring a US-registered exchange, creating a split between its domestic regulated route and its international marketplace.
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Midterms Raise the Stakes for Prediction Markets
The midterms are expected to test prediction market controls because election contracts can attract both high retail attention and concerns over non-public information, manipulation and coordinated activity.
Polymarket is not alone in facing those questions. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, has also expanded its surveillance arrangements this year, including through external technology providers and referrals to regulators.
The Polymarket disclosure gives a clearer view of the controls now being described around prediction-market trading. The company is presenting blockchain analytics as one part of a broader surveillance process that also includes identity work, trade monitoring, open-source research and law-enforcement referrals.
The midterms will therefore test more than trading demand. They will also test how Polymarket applies those controls across election-related markets while keeping its international platform separate from its US-regulated access route.
