Novig’s opening week outpaced Kalshi and Polymarket’s own sports-market debuts, but the more interesting question is how many states let it keep operating.
Novig launched nationwide as a federally regulated sports prediction market on 4 August, after the CFTC granted its Ludlow Exchange LLC subsidiary a Designated Contract Market status on 16 June.
The platform processed more than $125 million in notional trading volume in its first week, exceeding the opening-week sports volumes reported by Kalshi, Polymarket, Underdog and DraftKings’ DKeX, according to data the company shared with CNBC.
“Our highest-volume day since launching nationwide… was $26.3 million in trading volume,” co-founder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky said.
Parlays accounted for roughly a third of the volume, and baseball was the most active sport.
A Fast Pivot through Three Regulatory Models
Novig started licensed as a sportsbook in Colorado, then withdrew from the state in 2024 and switched to a sweepstakes-based format. This is a common workaround that lets platforms offer contest-style betting without a gambling licence in every state.
That model still left Novig operating state by state. Filing for CFTC approval in January offered a different route. Instead of seeking permission from each state’s gambling regulator, the company sought a single federal designation that would let it list sports contracts nationwide under commodities law.
The CFTC granted that status on 16 June, and Novig used it to relaunch as a sports-only prediction market on 4 August, requiring users to be 21 or older, which is three years above the 18-plus minimum most prediction market rivals use.
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The DCM Status is Being Tested in Five Courts
Novig’s federal status is central to its legal position: as a CFTC-registered exchange, it argues its contracts fall under federal jurisdiction and are exempt from state gambling law.
Five states - New York, Massachusetts, Washington, New Mexico and Wisconsin - disagree, and Novig has sued all five since 4 August seeking to block them from enforcing gambling rules against it.
The CFTC itself tried the same argument against Wisconsin and lost: a federal judge denied the agency’s request for a preliminary injunction on 28 July, finding it hadn’t shown a likelihood of success on the preemption claim.
In New York, a court declined to block the state through a temporary restraining order immediately; a hearing on a preliminary injunction is reportedly scheduled for 11 September.
A separate risk comes with the regulator Novig depends on. The CFTC’s own June proposal would bar certain sports contract types, including those tied to player injuries, officiating decisions and discrete in-game actions such as individual pitches.
Novig’s business heavily relies on this category, with the rule still in public comment.
Novig’s next courtroom date, and whether other states follow Wisconsin’s and New York’s lead, will determine whether its opening-week volume is the start of a national sports market or a 90-day head start before enforcement catches up.
