prediction markets
Inside the Prediction Markets: Regulators Write the Rules for a Market They Don’t Fully Control
- The CFTC opened formal rulemaking for prediction markets, even as an estimated $34 billion in annual U.S. trading volume remains offshore.
- Prediction markets expanded into the prop trading industry through Match-Trader, while Kalshi introduced new screening measures designed to identify potential insiders.
Friday, 12/06/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The CFTC’s New Rulebook Doesn’t Reach a $34 Billion Offshore Prediction Market
- The CFTC’s new prediction market framework sets rules for regulated platforms such as Kalshi, but does not address offshore venues.
- A new study estimates that up to $34 billion in annual prediction market volume comes from U.S. users trading on offshore platforms.
Friday, 12/06/2026 | 11:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Moves to Screen Potential Insiders Before Trades Are Placed
- Kalshi will require employment disclosures for traders participating in certain high-risk prediction markets.
- The move comes as prediction markets face growing scrutiny over insider trading and market surveillance practices.
Wednesday, 10/06/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
BitMart US Enters Prediction Markets Through Plaee in CFTC-Regulated Push
- Partnership enables trading on real-world events including crypto, finance, sports, economics.
- Plaee offers white-label Prediction Trader interface and regulated event contract access.
Wednesday, 10/06/2026 | 14:14 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Perpetuals Defends UpsideOnly's No-Loss Model as Prediction-Market Prop Play Tops $4.5 Billion
- The company reported billions in two-week volume on virtual capital as Perpetuals also signed a tokenized commodities deal with Datavault AI.
- The Nasdaq-listed firm run by a former FTX Europe boss declares it absorbs all trading losses, while declining to say how its book is funded.
Tuesday, 09/06/2026 | 18:00 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
MEXC Launches Institutionally Priced Multi-Event Prediction Contracts
- The cryptocurrency exchange launched Combo, allowing users to combine up to 20 prediction market outcomes into a single position.
- Unlike traditional prediction market contracts, Combo uses RFQ-based pricing from third-party liquidity providers rather than direct user matching.
Tuesday, 09/06/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
How Traders Are Using Prediction Markets to Track Market Risk in Real Time
- Prediction markets are pricing further downside for Bitcoin and equities, but not a systemic market collapse.
- Record trading volumes suggest traders are increasingly using prediction markets to gauge macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
Monday, 08/06/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Trading Volume Hits $28.4B as Brokers and Market Makers Move In
- Wintermute and Galaxy Digital expanded their prediction market operations, highlighting growing demand for institutional liquidity and larger trade sizes.
- World Cup contracts have already generated roughly $1.5 billion in trading volume, prompting sportsbooks to adjust products and promotions ahead of the tournament.
Friday, 05/06/2026 | 13:26 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
George Santos Probe Adds to Growing Insider-Trading Pressure on Prediction Markets
- Federal investigators are examining trades linked to former Congressman George Santos, adding to a growing list of insider-trading cases on prediction markets.
- Regulators, exchanges, and financial institutions increasingly apply traditional market-integrity and compliance standards to event-based contracts.
Thursday, 04/06/2026 | 16:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Force Sportsbooks to Rethink Their World Cup Strategy
- Sportsbooks are rolling out new betting formats, promotions, and prediction-style products as Polymarket and Kalshi gain traction ahead of the World Cup.
- Operators including DraftKings and FanDuel are now competing through both traditional sportsbooks and federally regulated event-contract platforms.
Thursday, 04/06/2026 | 13:37 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Go Institutional as Galaxy Digital Moves Event Trading to the OTC Swap Market
- Galaxy Digital executed a $10 million OTC event swap with Arca, giving institutional investors exposure to prediction market outcomes outside public trading venues.
- The transaction highlights why larger investors are turning to OTC dealers: deeper execution capacity, greater privacy, and ISDA-based derivatives infrastructure.
Tuesday, 02/06/2026 | 13:05 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Wintermute Becomes Latest Market Maker to Enter Prediction Markets
- The company processes more than $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume across over 70 trading venues.
- The firm joins a growing group of market makers and trading firms building liquidity infrastructure around event contracts.
Monday, 01/06/2026 | 09:03 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: DraftKings Bets on the CFTC Model
- A Google employee was charged with using confidential company data to earn $1.2 million on Polymarket.
- The gambling industry says states have already lost more than $1 billion in tax revenue as event contracts continue to gain market share.
Friday, 29/05/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Pushes Prediction Markets Into Formal Federal Rulemaking
- After years of lawsuits, insider trading probes, and state bans, the prediction market sector is entering a formal federal rulemaking process.
- The outcome could determine whether event contracts operate under a unified federal derivatives framework or continue facing state-level gambling restrictions.
Thursday, 28/05/2026 | 08:31 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Build Wall Street-Style Infrastructure to Attract Hedge Funds
- Macro hedge funds, prime brokers, and market makers are increasingly treating prediction markets as a new institutional trading and hedging venue.
- Firms including Clear Street, Marex, and Tradeweb are building the infrastructure needed to connect professional investors to event-based markets at scale.
Wednesday, 27/05/2026 | 16:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Trump Backs CFTC Authority Over Prediction Markets Amid State Pushback
- The comments strengthen the federal preemption argument that prediction markets should operate under CFTC oversight.
- Trump’s broader political and business orbit becomes increasingly tied to prediction markets through Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com partnerships.
Wednesday, 27/05/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
DraftKings Moves Deeper Into Prediction Markets With DKeX CFTC Filings
- DraftKings has filed its first federally regulated event contract templates through its DKeX exchange entity under the CFTC framework.
- The filings reflect growing interest among sportsbook operators in event contracts that can operate under a single federal structure.
Wednesday, 27/05/2026 | 10:48 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Hyperliquid Launches Prediction Markets With Validator-Based Settlement
- Hyperliquid has launched validator-settled prediction markets, moving event resolution directly into its own protocol infrastructure.
- The model allows traders to hold event contracts, perpetuals, and other positions against shared collateral within a single trading environment.
Tuesday, 26/05/2026 | 16:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Binance Embeds Event Trading into Its Wallet as Prediction Markets Grow into Core Infrastructure
- Binance has integrated event trading directly into its wallet, allowing users to trade outcome-based contracts alongside existing crypto products.
- As exchanges and wallets compete for distribution, regulators are increasingly challenging whether prediction markets should be treated as financial products or gambling services.
Tuesday, 26/05/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket Targets Japan with Formal Lobbying Effort, Signaling Industry Shift
- Polymarket is pursuing formal government approval in Japan despite some of the strictest gambling laws among major economies.
- The company’s approach in Japan contrasts with its strategy in markets like India, where prediction platforms have continued operating amid regulatory pressure.
Friday, 22/05/2026 | 17:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
US Congress Opens Formal Probe into Kalshi and Polymarket, Targeting KYC and Trade Surveillance
- Congress is demanding detailed records on identity verification, anomaly detection, and insider trading controls from Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The probe increases pressure on prediction market platforms to build compliance infrastructure closer to what regulated brokers and exchanges already use.
Friday, 22/05/2026 | 13:39 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Polymarket Pushes Abroad as Sporttrade Drops Sportsbooks
- Polymarket hired a Japan representative targeting 2030 approval while continuing to operate in India despite a federal ban.
- The SEC delayed prediction market ETFs from Roundhill, GraniteShares, and Bitwise.
Friday, 22/05/2026 | 10:56 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
SEC Delays Prediction Market ETFs, Signaling Turf Battle with CFTC
- The SEC has delayed a wave of ETFs tied to prediction markets while it reviews the regulatory implications.
- The decision could determine how quickly event-based trading enters mainstream brokerage platforms.
Thursday, 21/05/2026 | 17:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Casino Lobby Calls CFTC a “Rogue Agency” Over Prediction Markets
- The American Gaming Association is challenging the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets.
- For brokers and exchanges, the core issue is whether federal CFTC oversight can override state gambling licenses.
Thursday, 21/05/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
"Prediction Market Platforms May Need to Operate Under Gambling Licenses": Devexperts' Jon Light
- The tech provider's Senior Director of Product Management told Finance Magnates that brokers entering prediction markets are weighing regulatory constraints as heavily as technology and infrastructure decisions.
- "Liquidity management also becomes more important, as trading activity can surge rapidly around key events and then disappear just as quickly."
Thursday, 21/05/2026 | 10:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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