prediction markets
IG Chief Questions What Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Records Are Worth
- Breon Corcoran said notional figures are hard to tie to economic value, since a $1 parlay can show thousands.
- Underdog, which IG is buying for up to $1.3 billion, booked $105 million of net revenue last quarter.
Monday, 12/10/2026 | 06:34 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Why the CFTC Is Rewriting Swap Rules for Prediction Markets and How It Shifts the Balance of Power
- A new two-pronged CFTC package seeks exclusive federal oversight for booming event-contract exchanges.
- With billions in gaming revenue at stake, state attorneys general and Tribal groups are unlikely to yield.
Saturday, 10/10/2026 | 13:40 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Would You Bet on the COVID Lab-Leak Theory? Prediction Markets Now Trade the Past
- Each contract pays $1 or nothing, and the company's own evidence-scoring system decides which side wins.
- It is open only outside the US for now, as the startup called Verifact Markets looks for a regulatory route to American users.
Wednesday, 07/10/2026 | 06:30 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Polymarket Adds Self-Exclusion and Deposit Limits for Prediction Traders
- The safeguards mirror responsible-gambling controls used by sportsbooks.
- US users can cap deposits, while traders can block access for 30 days, one year or permanently and seek support through Birches Health.
Wednesday, 30/09/2026 | 20:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
$220 Million across 31,000 Markets: Polymarket Turns Stock Moves into Yes-or-No Trades
- Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple and Tesla drew the most activity, with payouts determined by each market’s price threshold, deadline and settlement source.
- Single-stock event contracts offer binary price exposure without shareholder rights and may fall within the SEC’s security-based swap framework.
Monday, 28/09/2026 | 21:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
After Coinbase, Gemini and Kalshi, New York Takes Its Prediction Market Fight to Polymarket
- New York wants Polymarket US to stop offering contracts across sports, elections, culture and other events without state gaming licences.
- The case enters a wider legal split over whether federal CFTC oversight prevents states from applying their gambling laws.
Thursday, 24/09/2026 | 20:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Underdog Adds External Trade Surveillance to Its Prediction Markets Platform
- Validus will analyse orders, executions and participant behaviour, generating alerts for Underdog’s compliance team to investigate.
- Rothera, Novig and Kalshi have also added third-party surveillance tools as regulated event exchanges expand their markets.
Thursday, 24/09/2026 | 18:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Public Links Kalshi Prediction Markets to AI Trading Agents
- Agents can respond to FDA approval, rate expectations, and earnings-risk probabilities.
- Recently, Tradeweb integrated Kalshi data into institutional workflows, while ProCap used it with AI agents for research and ideas.
Thursday, 24/09/2026 | 15:15 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Financial Contracts Could Capture 49% of Prediction Market Volume by 2035
- Bernstein raised its 2026 volume forecast by 71% to $410 billion after strong activity during the first eight months.
- The long-term estimate assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of trading across broader financial markets.
Tuesday, 22/09/2026 | 21:50 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Targets Institutional Traders with Margin for Prediction Markets
- The proposed model would calculate collateral from estimated market risk, with requirements rising as a contract approaches settlement.
- Access would remain restricted and subject to CFTC review, while sports contracts would continue to require full collateral.
Tuesday, 22/09/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket Trader Won 41 of 42 Earnings Bets on Companies KPMG Audits
- The trades returned about $22,000 and began in November 2025, according to blockchain data firm Bubblemaps.
- No one has been charged, and prosecutors have not decided whether to bring a case, the Journal reported.
Monday, 14/09/2026 | 10:37 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Event Contract Marketing in Europe May Require EU Authorisation, ESMA Says
- The largest prediction-market platforms do not currently hold the EU permissions that may be required to market or sell event contracts.
- Event contracts may fall under MiFID II, MiCA or national gambling rules, depending on the product structure and underlying event.
Friday, 11/09/2026 | 17:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The CFTC Says 'Gaming' Is Undefined: What Actually Separates a Prediction Market from a Sportsbook
- A bookmaker prices the bet and takes the other side of it; an event-contract exchange matches buyers against sellers and settles every contract at one dollar or zero.
- For firms weighing event contracts, mechanics drive the regulatory fight: CFTC rules are pending while states test federal designation under gambling law.
Thursday, 10/09/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Federal Courts Now Disagree on Kalshi’s Sports Contracts. New Jersey Wants the Supreme Court to Settle the Fight
- Two federal appeals courts have reached opposite conclusions on whether states can regulate Kalshi's sports-related event contracts, and three more have yet to rule.
- New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to resolve the disagreement, arguing the conflict it warned would come has now arrived.
Friday, 04/09/2026 | 19:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
On Polymarket, Being Right About Dota 2 Paid Less Than Trading the Odds
- Predictbook found that just 5,004 Polymarket accounts made money trading Dota 2's The International 2026 by buying and selling contracts.
- The top 10% of accounts supplied 97.8% of the $181.93 million wagered on the tournament.
Thursday, 03/09/2026 | 15:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Are Prediction Markets Becoming Too Good at Taking Money?
- Tony Cross argues prediction markets risk losing retail traders if well-capitalised participants gain too much of an edge, with horse racing offering a warning from the past.
- Nearly 2,000 Polymarket accounts captured almost $500 million. Is that a coincidence?
Tuesday, 01/09/2026 | 19:00 GMT by
Tony Cross
Polymarket Puts Surveillance Controls on Display before US Midterms
- The platform says its market-integrity programme uses machine learning, blockchain analytics, trade surveillance, open-source research and third-party tools.
- More than 100 cases have been referred to law enforcement as election-related markets draw closer scrutiny.
Monday, 31/08/2026 | 16:10 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi's Youngest Traders Moved $5.4 Billion. Some Rivals Won't Take Their Money
- Prediction markets are federally regulated as financial products under the CFTC, which sets no minimum above 18.
- Such platforms as Novig and Fanatics have voluntarily set their own minimum at 21, even though they aren't required to.
Friday, 28/08/2026 | 14:12 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Follow Prop Firms Into the US Introducing Broker Model
- Prospect Markets, a sports prediction-market company, split its business into retail and institutional units.
- Crypto.com companies will provide the exchange, clearing and customer-account services behind both routes.
Thursday, 27/08/2026 | 11:46 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Polymarket Military Trades May Be Broadcasting Insider Signals to Bots and Whales
- ACDC found 152 Polymarket wallets that made $8 million on military and defence markets.
- Kalshi has moved some controls upstream, including employment checks for selected markets.
Thursday, 20/08/2026 | 16:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi's Event Contracts to Roughly 3,000 Institutional Clients
- The investment bank is among the first to give institutional clients access to event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange.
- The business belongs to Cantor's Global Markets division, and the firm said it expects to add trading venues beyond Kalshi over time.
Wednesday, 19/08/2026 | 14:16 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Novig's Prediction Market Launch Beat Kalshi's. Its Legal Fight Is Just Starting
- The sports-focused prediction market platform processed more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week after launch.
- The company has sued five states, arguing federal derivatives law preempts their gambling regulations, with mixed results so far in court.
Tuesday, 18/08/2026 | 20:11 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
TT Connects to Crypto.com’s OG.com to Provide Institutional Traders with Another Route Into Event Contracts
- Trading Technologies will connect its platform to OG.com with the integration going live in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- The move follows TT's earlier connection to Kalshi and comes as rivals build similar links to regulated event contract markets.
Tuesday, 18/08/2026 | 17:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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