prediction markets
Are Prediction Markets Becoming Too Good at Taking Money?
- Tony Cross argues prediction markets risk losing retail traders if well-capitalised participants gain too much of an edge, with horse racing offering a warning from the past.
- Nearly 2,000 Polymarket accounts captured almost $500 million. Is that a coincidence?
Tuesday, 01/09/2026 | 19:00 GMT by
Tony Cross
Polymarket Puts Surveillance Controls on Display before US Midterms
- The platform says its market-integrity programme uses machine learning, blockchain analytics, trade surveillance, open-source research and third-party tools.
- More than 100 cases have been referred to law enforcement as election-related markets draw closer scrutiny.
Monday, 31/08/2026 | 16:10 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi's Youngest Traders Moved $5.4 Billion. Some Rivals Won't Take Their Money
- Prediction markets are federally regulated as financial products under the CFTC, which sets no minimum above 18.
- Such platforms as Novig and Fanatics have voluntarily set their own minimum at 21, even though they aren't required to.
Friday, 28/08/2026 | 14:12 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Follow Prop Firms Into the US Introducing Broker Model
- Prospect Markets, a sports prediction-market company, split its business into retail and institutional units.
- Crypto.com companies will provide the exchange, clearing and customer-account services behind both routes.
Thursday, 27/08/2026 | 11:46 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Polymarket Military Trades May Be Broadcasting Insider Signals to Bots and Whales
- ACDC found 152 Polymarket wallets that made $8 million on military and defence markets.
- Kalshi has moved some controls upstream, including employment checks for selected markets.
Thursday, 20/08/2026 | 16:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi's Event Contracts to Roughly 3,000 Institutional Clients
- The investment bank is among the first to give institutional clients access to event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange.
- The business belongs to Cantor's Global Markets division, and the firm said it expects to add trading venues beyond Kalshi over time.
Wednesday, 19/08/2026 | 14:16 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Novig's Prediction Market Launch Beat Kalshi's. Its Legal Fight Is Just Starting
- The sports-focused prediction market platform processed more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week after launch.
- The company has sued five states, arguing federal derivatives law preempts their gambling regulations, with mixed results so far in court.
Tuesday, 18/08/2026 | 20:11 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
TT Connects to Crypto.com’s OG.com to Provide Institutional Traders with Another Route Into Event Contracts
- Trading Technologies will connect its platform to OG.com with the integration going live in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- The move follows TT's earlier connection to Kalshi and comes as rivals build similar links to regulated event contract markets.
Tuesday, 18/08/2026 | 17:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Alpaca Joins the Race to Bring Prediction Markets Into Broker Platforms
- Alpaca Derivatives has registered as an FCM with the CFTC and became an NFA member.
- The company plans to add event contracts to the infrastructure its brokerage partners already use.
Monday, 17/08/2026 | 14:56 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Apex Turns Kalshi Into an Add-On for Broker Platforms
- Apex Fintech Solutions has launched an API-based service that lets brokers and fintechs offer Kalshi event contracts inside their own platforms.
- The solution allows brokers to add CFTC-regulated event contracts without building their own FCM technology or direct exchange connectivity.
Thursday, 13/08/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Puts Prediction-Market Rewards Under the Microscope
- Material changes to rebates, eligibility or products require a fresh submission and restart the 10-business-day review.
- The agency flagged wash-trading risks, guaranteed-profit structures and chance-based rewards.
Thursday, 13/08/2026 | 07:26 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
River Markets Raises $8.5M to Build the First Prime Broker for Prediction Markets
- The startup aims to build a cross-venue execution platform combining smart order routing, consolidated positions and risk management across prediction-market venues.
- The company is says the platform will connect professional traders to liquidity across platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig through a single interface.
Wednesday, 12/08/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Why Retail Brokers Are Moving Into Prediction Markets
- Event contracts generated $156 million in Q2 revenue for Robinhood, proving massive retail demand and accelerating a wider broker pivot into event-based trading.
- Traditional CFD firms may need to reconsider product strategies quickly as sports outcomes, macroeconomic decisions, and political results become a mainstream retail asset class.
Wednesday, 12/08/2026 | 13:31 GMT by
Sylwester Majewski
Are Sportsbooks Fighting Prediction Markets or Cannibalising Themselves?
- DraftKings and FanDuel are entering prediction markets to expand their reach, but doing so brings them closer to the exchange model challenging sportsbook economics.
- Private investors have sharply raised valuations for Kalshi and Polymarket, increasing pressure on listed sportsbook operators.
Monday, 10/08/2026 | 21:10 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Gate.io Launches $3M Grant Program for Event Contracts Infrastructure
- Gate.io is moving beyond its own exchange with Event Contracts Builder, a toolkit for brokers, fintechs and developers to launch branded prediction market products.
- The $3 million grant program is designed to bring more third-party applications onto Gate.io’s event contract infrastructure.
Monday, 10/08/2026 | 14:41 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Tells Prediction Markets: If It's a Derivative, Don't Make It Look Like a Bet
- The CFTC told regulated event-contract firms not to use American-style bookmaker odds when listing, soliciting or advertising derivatives.
- The warning shows that the legal fight over prediction markets is now shaping how firms display prices and market contracts to customers.
Friday, 07/08/2026 | 20:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
75% of Kalshi Users Never Trade, but Platform Still Intends to Capitalise on That
- Kalshi launched a Public Companies Hub this week, bundling earnings-related prediction markets with company data across its web, mobile and API products.
- Intercontinental Exchange and Tradeweb have separately started distributing Polymarket and Kalshi data to institutional clients.
Wednesday, 05/08/2026 | 18:58 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Adds Second Compliance Platform for Employee Trade Monitoring
- Kalshi has added Comply as its second major enterprise compliance integration, bringing prediction-market trade data into employee monitoring workflows.
- Comply’s platform will cover Kalshi contracts alongside securities and digital assets, the integration also extends to perpetual futures.
Tuesday, 04/08/2026 | 18:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Brokers Double Down as States Challenge the CFTC
- Novig became the first prediction market platform to sponsor an individual MLB franchise this week, extending team-level deals beyond the hockey and combat-sports partnerships.
- The announcement landed alongside IG Group's $1.3 billion acquisition of Underdog and a letter from 44 state attorneys general asking the CFTC to withdraw its sports-contract rule.
Friday, 31/07/2026 | 19:29 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
New York Mets Sign Novig as Prediction Market Partner. Deal Follows Federal Nod for Sports Event Contracts
- Novig's CFTC registration lets it offer sports event contracts nationwide from a single federal licence, bypassing state-by-state sportsbook approval
- The Mets deal makes Novig the first Major League Baseball team-level prediction market partner, ahead of the platform's planned August launch.
Friday, 31/07/2026 | 16:59 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Rothera Adds $17 Million as Robinhood Event Revenue Reaches $156 Million
- Event-contract activity exceeded 13.6 billion contracts in Q2, more than ten times the year-earlier level.
- Rothera contributed $17 million after its June launch, adding exchange and clearing infrastructure through Robinhood’s Susquehanna joint venture.
Thursday, 30/07/2026 | 19:27 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Are Beginning to Mirror the Retail Economics Long Seen in CFDs
- Kalshi combos carried an average implied probability of 9%, while fewer than 3% of World Cup final combinations settled “Yes”, Bloomberg found.
- Prediction markets match customers with market makers rather than warehouse risk like CFD providers, but both show a pricing advantage for professional participants.
Tuesday, 28/07/2026 | 18:50 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Rothera Joins Peers in Expanding Trade Surveillance for Prediction Markets
- The prediction markets platform plans to use Validus across fully collateralised and margined products.
- Novig and Kalshi have also added external surveillance tools to identify abusive patterns and suspicious user activity.
Tuesday, 28/07/2026 | 17:11 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Fanatics Brings Prediction Markets Infrastructure In-House With BGC Deal
- The platform will acquire a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC, bringing the listing and clearing of prediction markets under its own control.
- Fanatics Markets is a prediction markets platform that allows users to trade event-based contracts via Crypto.com’s CFTC-registered derivatives exchange.
Monday, 27/07/2026 | 14:31 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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