prediction markets
ASIC Is Not Betting on Prediction Markets for Retail Clients
- The regulator says it is not convinced retail access to prediction markets is in the public interest.
- Offshore prediction markets carry no Australian legal protections, and licensees that facilitate access to them keep all their licence obligations, it added.
Friday, 30/10/2026 | 07:45 GMT by
Arnab Shome
No Prediction Market Has Applied to Operate in Australia, Its Financial Regulator Says
- ASIC Chairwoman Sarah Court told senators any bid would face a high bar under financial services law.
- Polymarket is already blocked as a prohibited gambling service, while IG seeks a betting license in Britain.
Thursday, 29/10/2026 | 08:34 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
S&P to Turn Kalshi Probabilities into Indices under Benchmark Deal
- S&P DJI could build indices from Kalshi market data, while Kalshi could settle new contracts against official S&P DJI index values.
- Similar products exist separately at ICE and Cboe, but the partners have not named their first products or set launch dates.
Monday, 26/10/2026 | 18:57 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Brazil’s Election Upset Tests Prediction Markets’ Pitch to Brokers
- Polymarket priced Bolsonaro’s victory at 80.2% and Kalshi at 77.5% before Lula won Brazil’s runoff.
- The miss comes as prediction market operators accelerates distribution to third-party brokerage apps.
Monday, 26/10/2026 | 15:20 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
IG Wants to Be Your Broker and Your Bookie
- The company applied for a UK gambling license to run sports and politics prediction markets from early 2027.
- Moreover, Freetrade, bought for £160 million, saw quarterly trading revenue fall to £2.2 million from £6.7 million.
Thursday, 22/10/2026 | 07:50 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
River Markets Targets Institutional Distribution Role for OG.com and Crypto.com
- River would provide the trading interface and risk tools, while OG.com supplies event contracts and Crypto.com Exchange supplies spot liquidity.
- Institutional adoption is still early: a survey found that 9% of derivatives firms trade prediction markets.
Tuesday, 20/10/2026 | 19:11 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
“You Want to Go to the Place That’s Got All the Liquidity”: Kalshi’s Andy Ross on Its Pitch to Brokers
- Finance Magnates spoke with Kalshi’s Head of Institutional about broker distribution, institutional demand and the exchange’s expansion beyond event contracts.
- “We’re looking to launch FX perpetuals,” he said, as Kalshi adds conventional derivatives alongside its prediction markets.
Tuesday, 20/10/2026 | 11:08 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Canada Tightens Prediction Market Rules, Banning Brokers from Displaying Sports Contracts
- Canadian brokers must keep ineligible event contracts out of search results, recommendations and marketing, even when trading is blocked.
- Wealthsimple’s promotional page still shows hypothetical OpenAI IPO and Apple product questions.
Friday, 16/10/2026 | 18:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Turns Local Ballot Data into a Market Discovery Tool
- Kalshi says more than 80% of its Midterms Hub visitors do not trade, making election information valuable to the platform in its own right.
- Politics generated $169 million in July trading volume versus $31.4 billion for sports. Kalshi has not shown whether personalised ballot lookups lead to trades.
Friday, 16/10/2026 | 14:06 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
IG Chief Questions What Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Records Are Worth
- Breon Corcoran said notional figures are hard to tie to economic value, since a $1 parlay can show thousands.
- Underdog, which IG is buying for up to $1.3 billion, booked $105 million of net revenue last quarter.
Monday, 12/10/2026 | 06:34 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Why the CFTC Is Rewriting Swap Rules for Prediction Markets and How It Shifts the Balance of Power
- A new two-pronged CFTC package seeks exclusive federal oversight for booming event-contract exchanges.
- With billions in gaming revenue at stake, state attorneys general and Tribal groups are unlikely to yield.
Saturday, 10/10/2026 | 13:40 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Would You Bet on the COVID Lab-Leak Theory? Prediction Markets Now Trade the Past
- Each contract pays $1 or nothing, and the company's own evidence-scoring system decides which side wins.
- It is open only outside the US for now, as the startup called Verifact Markets looks for a regulatory route to American users.
Wednesday, 07/10/2026 | 06:30 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Polymarket Adds Self-Exclusion and Deposit Limits for Prediction Traders
- The safeguards mirror responsible-gambling controls used by sportsbooks.
- US users can cap deposits, while traders can block access for 30 days, one year or permanently and seek support through Birches Health.
Wednesday, 30/09/2026 | 20:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
$220 Million across 31,000 Markets: Polymarket Turns Stock Moves into Yes-or-No Trades
- Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple and Tesla drew the most activity, with payouts determined by each market’s price threshold, deadline and settlement source.
- Single-stock event contracts offer binary price exposure without shareholder rights and may fall within the SEC’s security-based swap framework.
Monday, 28/09/2026 | 21:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
After Coinbase, Gemini and Kalshi, New York Takes Its Prediction Market Fight to Polymarket
- New York wants Polymarket US to stop offering contracts across sports, elections, culture and other events without state gaming licences.
- The case enters a wider legal split over whether federal CFTC oversight prevents states from applying their gambling laws.
Thursday, 24/09/2026 | 20:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Underdog Adds External Trade Surveillance to Its Prediction Markets Platform
- Validus will analyse orders, executions and participant behaviour, generating alerts for Underdog’s compliance team to investigate.
- Rothera, Novig and Kalshi have also added third-party surveillance tools as regulated event exchanges expand their markets.
Thursday, 24/09/2026 | 18:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Public Links Kalshi Prediction Markets to AI Trading Agents
- Agents can respond to FDA approval, rate expectations, and earnings-risk probabilities.
- Recently, Tradeweb integrated Kalshi data into institutional workflows, while ProCap used it with AI agents for research and ideas.
Thursday, 24/09/2026 | 15:15 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Financial Contracts Could Capture 49% of Prediction Market Volume by 2035
- Bernstein raised its 2026 volume forecast by 71% to $410 billion after strong activity during the first eight months.
- The long-term estimate assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of trading across broader financial markets.
Tuesday, 22/09/2026 | 21:50 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Targets Institutional Traders with Margin for Prediction Markets
- The proposed model would calculate collateral from estimated market risk, with requirements rising as a contract approaches settlement.
- Access would remain restricted and subject to CFTC review, while sports contracts would continue to require full collateral.
Tuesday, 22/09/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket Trader Won 41 of 42 Earnings Bets on Companies KPMG Audits
- The trades returned about $22,000 and began in November 2025, according to blockchain data firm Bubblemaps.
- No one has been charged, and prosecutors have not decided whether to bring a case, the Journal reported.
Monday, 14/09/2026 | 10:37 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Event Contract Marketing in Europe May Require EU Authorisation, ESMA Says
- The largest prediction-market platforms do not currently hold the EU permissions that may be required to market or sell event contracts.
- Event contracts may fall under MiFID II, MiCA or national gambling rules, depending on the product structure and underlying event.
Friday, 11/09/2026 | 17:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The CFTC Says 'Gaming' Is Undefined: What Actually Separates a Prediction Market from a Sportsbook
- A bookmaker prices the bet and takes the other side of it; an event-contract exchange matches buyers against sellers and settles every contract at one dollar or zero.
- For firms weighing event contracts, mechanics drive the regulatory fight: CFTC rules are pending while states test federal designation under gambling law.
Thursday, 10/09/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Federal Courts Now Disagree on Kalshi’s Sports Contracts. New Jersey Wants the Supreme Court to Settle the Fight
- Two federal appeals courts have reached opposite conclusions on whether states can regulate Kalshi's sports-related event contracts, and three more have yet to rule.
- New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to resolve the disagreement, arguing the conflict it warned would come has now arrived.
Friday, 04/09/2026 | 19:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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