prediction markets
Kalish vs. Kalshi: The Fight Over Who Really Wins in Prediction Markets
- DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish accused Kalshi of routing retail order flow toward professional market makers through an exchange structure that favors institutional liquidity providers.
- The dispute has intensified broader questions around slippage, market-maker concentration, and whether prediction markets function more like financial exchanges or sportsbooks.
Tuesday, 19/05/2026 | 17:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Sporttrade Exits Sports Betting to Rebuild Around Prediction Markets Under CFTC Oversight
- Sporttrade is replacing its state sportsbook model with a federally regulated event-trading structure tied to the CFTC.
- DraftKings and FanDuel are also expanding into event contracts, but Sporttrade is one of the few firms leaving the sportsbook model behind entirely.
Tuesday, 19/05/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket’s Arbitration Model Faces Conflict-of-Interest Questions
- A Wall Street Journal analysis found that some UMA token holders resolving Polymarket disputes also held positions in the same markets.
- As prediction markets scale institutionally, arbitration and settlement integrity are becoming a growing operational concern.
Monday, 18/05/2026 | 22:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Market Giants Defy India Ban in High-Stakes Global Expansion Play
- Kalshi and Polymarket continue operating in India despite a federal ban and explicit warnings from the country’s technology ministry.
- The situation highlights a growing gap between U.S. regulatory legitimacy and legal acceptance in overseas markets such as India and Brazil.
Monday, 18/05/2026 | 14:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Interactive Brokers Starts “Trading the Future” as SEC Stalls ETF Plans
- Polymarket’s trading activity declined for the first time in eight months as the platform rolled out a major infrastructure overhaul.
- Regulators are still divided on whether prediction markets should be treated as financial derivatives or gambling products, even as institutional adoption accelerates.
Friday, 15/05/2026 | 14:12 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
"Who Am I to Say You Shouldn't Trade That?": Vlad Tenev Defends Speculators and Prediction Markets
- Robinhood's chief executive pushed back on gambling critics in the same week Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation.
- Event contract volume across the industry has crossed $50 billion as insider trading cases test the sector's defenses.
Monday, 11/05/2026 | 16:00 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Coinbase Head of Prediction Markets: It's Becoming a Way to “Invest in Information”
- Toni Gemayel told Finance magnates that prediction markets are becoming part of a broader “Everything Exchange” model.
- He revealed that the exchange plans to expand beyond Kalshi and support contracts from additional prediction market platforms in the coming months.
Monday, 11/05/2026 | 10:07 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFD Broker Born2trade to Enter Prediction Markets After Acquiring Predictory.com Domain
- The move reflects a broader trend of CFD brokers adding event-based trading to attract new users.
- Technology providers such as Match-Trade now offer plug-in prediction market modules for brokers.
Friday, 08/05/2026 | 16:31 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Raises $1B as Regulatory Tensions Escalate
- Flutter confirmed it is already generating revenue from prediction markets through market-making and liquidity provision rather than retail exchange operations.
- The CFTC’s latest review process exposed a growing divide between firms treating event contracts as financial derivatives and critics who see them as gambling products.
Friday, 08/05/2026 | 11:41 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
FanDuel Owner Flutter Is Making Money From Prediction Markets as a Market Maker
- Flutter is using sportsbook-style pricing models to quote prediction market contracts and manage inventory risk.
- Rather than operating a retail exchange, the company is focusing on liquidity provision and market-making infrastructure.
Thursday, 07/05/2026 | 14:03 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Are Emerging as a Gen Z Entry Point to Trading
- Gen Z users are entering prediction markets at significantly higher rates than older investors.
- Prediction markets align closely with social-media-driven behaviour, turning news, culture, and online attention into perceived market insight.
Wednesday, 06/05/2026 | 15:17 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Are Turning Into an Acquisition Engine for Brokers
- According to Leverate, prediction markets are attracting users that traditional CFD products often fail to reach.
- For brokers, the commercial value may lie less in trading revenue and more in user acquisition and cross-selling.
Wednesday, 06/05/2026 | 11:17 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Are Becoming Algorithmic Trading Venues as AI Moves In
- AI tools and automated strategies are shifting prediction markets from crowd forecasting toward execution-driven trading.
- As bots and arbitrage strategies grow, platforms increasingly require the same infrastructure as electronic derivatives markets.
Tuesday, 05/05/2026 | 18:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi’s Legal Argument Tested as Courts Probe ‘Swap’ Classification
- Massachusetts justices questioned whether federal derivatives law can override state gambling rules in Kalshi’s case.
- The outcome could determine whether prediction markets operate under federal oversight or face state-by-state regulation.
Tuesday, 05/05/2026 | 10:06 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Gambling or Derivatives: CFTC Rulemaking Exposes a Structural Divide Over Prediction Markets
- Industry players argue these markets provide price discovery and hedging, while critics say they lack economic purpose and resemble betting.
- The outcome will define whether the sector integrates into Wall Street or is regulated like Las Vegas.
Monday, 04/05/2026 | 14:08 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Bitget Wallet: Prediction Markets Will Consolidate in Liquidity but Spread in Access
- Liquidity in prediction markets may concentrate in a few core venues, while access shifts toward wallets and exchanges.
- The competitive edge is moving from building markets to controlling how users access and interpret them.
Monday, 04/05/2026 | 10:18 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Reviews Reporting Rules as Prediction Markets Enter Commodities
- Kalshi limits trading hours on agricultural contracts as the CFTC reviews reporting requirements.
- Prediction platforms entering commodities face the same transparency rules as traditional exchanges.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 22:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Insider Case Triggers Push to Ban Core Trading
- Lawmakers are targeting sports contracts as this segment drives most of the market’s volume.
- As Congress tightens its stance, platforms face pressure on both core products and enforcement credibility.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 12:14 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The US Prediction-Markets Fight Just Split Into Two Opposite Lawsuits. Plus500 Sits In The Middle
- U.S. regulators are split on prediction markets, treating the same product as either derivatives or gambling, and pushing the issue into courts.
- Plus500 has positioned itself as a broker and infrastructure provider across both models, gaining exposure to the sector’s growth.
Thursday, 30/04/2026 | 15:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Hyperliquid Challenges Kalshi and Polymarket for a Multi-Billion-Dollar Prediction Market
- Hyperliquid is testing prediction markets on its platform, combining them with its existing derivatives infrastructure.
- While retail competition with Kalshi and Polymarket is uncertain, demand may come from experienced traders using event contracts alongside perps.
Wednesday, 29/04/2026 | 22:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
100,000 Polymarket Wallets Lost at Least $1,000, Bloomberg Analysis Shows
- Bloomberg and on-chain data show most users lose money, while a small group captures the majority of profits.
- The structure mirrors leveraged trading markets, raising questions about suitability and regulatory response.
Wednesday, 29/04/2026 | 15:25 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Are We All Pigeons? The Hidden Psychology Behind Prediction Markets
- Gambling and prediction markets rely on simple, repetitive interactions that trigger dopamine responses.
- When the probability of an outcome is uncertain, the brain releases significantly more dopamine.
Wednesday, 29/04/2026 | 08:44 GMT by
Sylwester Majewski
How Polymarket Users Move From Crypto to Sports And Why It Matters
- Most users enter through crypto markets, which offer low entry barriers and familiar trading patterns.
- Sports drives engagement, accounting for roughly 64% of total market volume and sustaining repeat activity.
Tuesday, 28/04/2026 | 13:08 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Candidates Bet on Themselves as Platforms Push Into Perpetual Futures
- A senator presses the CFTC on how disputed bets are defined and resolved, highlighting gaps in current oversight.
- Platforms tighten rules while moving into crypto derivatives, expanding beyond event contracts.
Friday, 24/04/2026 | 17:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Trump Weighs In on Prediction Markets, Comparing Insider Trading to Pete Rose Scandal
- Trump compared insider trading on prediction markets to sports betting, reinforcing gambling-style framing.
- His remarks may influence how lawmakers and regulators view the sector, despite offering no clear policy direction.
Friday, 24/04/2026 | 12:09 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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