prediction markets
Europe Has No Licensed Prediction Markets. ESMA Just Raised the Entry Bar
- ESMA did not ban prediction markets in Europe, but it made legal classification the starting point for any future launch.
- Whether a platform needs MiFID II, MiCA or a national gambling licence now depends on how each event contract is classified under EU law.
Friday, 03/07/2026 | 12:41 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
What's In a Name? ESMA Says Prediction Markets Are Still Binary Options
- ESMA has reminded firms that "event contracts" qualifying as financial instruments fall under existing binary options bans, regardless of what they are branded as commercially.
- The regulator says distributing such contracts to any client, including non-retail, requires MiFID II authorisation, and warns that circumventing the rules is prohibited.
Friday, 03/07/2026 | 07:36 GMT by
Arnab Shome
Prediction Markets Top $50B Monthly Volume. Will It Last Beyond the World Cup?
- Prediction markets topped $50 billion in monthly volume for the first time, with June activity up 75% from May.
- The World Cup drove much of the surge, so the real test is whether trading activity stays elevated after the tournament ends.
Thursday, 02/07/2026 | 16:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Cboe Wants to Turn Company KPIs Into Tradable Yes-or-No Options
- Cboe is seeking SEC approval for binary options tied to company KPIs, including revenue, shipments and other business metrics.
- If approved, brokers could offer prediction-style exposure through existing securities accounts instead of standalone prediction market platforms.
Thursday, 02/07/2026 | 09:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Owning the Exchange Is Becoming the New Competitive Advantage in Prediction Markets
- DraftKings, Robinhood and Coinbase are moving prediction-market infrastructure in-house.
- According to Bernstein, platforms are treating exchange infrastructure as a strategic asset.
Tuesday, 30/06/2026 | 17:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
ASIC Warns Crypto Perps Now Mimic CFDs While Dodging Its Rulebook
- The regulator says the contracts now rival CFDs while sitting largely outside its perimeter, often offered to Australians through offshore venues.
- A new report it commissioned puts perps, copy trading and round-the-clock exchanges at the center of a fast-moving competitive threat.
Tuesday, 30/06/2026 | 07:30 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Japan’s Prediction Markets Are Following the Pachinko Playbook
- The products look and feel like Polymarket, but users earn points instead of cash and redeem them through separate rewards programmes.
- The products look and feel like Polymarket, but use a pachinko-style points model: users wager points instead of cash and redeem rewards through separate retail programmes.
Monday, 29/06/2026 | 12:29 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside Prediction Markets: Lawsuits Mount as New Products and Partnerships Keep Coming
- Kalshi is reportedly seeking a $40 billion valuation, underscoring how quickly investor appetite for prediction markets continues to grow.
- Official sports data, securities-market distribution, and federal rulemaking all emerged as competitive battlegrounds this week.
Friday, 26/06/2026 | 11:18 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi in Talks to Raise at $40 Billion, Nearly Double Its May Valuation
- The prediction market operator could close a new round as soon as the third quarter, according to the Financial Times.
- Investor appetite is climbing even as state lawsuits and a CME Group challenge weigh on the company's regulatory standing.
Thursday, 25/06/2026 | 06:17 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Cboe Brings Binary Options to the Prediction Markets Space
- Cboe’s new contracts use the same yes-or-no payoff structure popularised by prediction markets
- The exchange says the launch is only the first step, with additional products and retail education initiatives planned through Cboe Predicts.
Wednesday, 24/06/2026 | 08:44 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Google Trends Shows How FIFA World Cup 2026 Sponsorship Turbocharges Prediction Markets
- Prediction markets sponsoring the event, ADI Predictstreet and Fanatics Markets, have gained massive search interest.
- ADI Predictstreet’s interest, measured as relative search popularity, peaked at 100 on June 14.
Tuesday, 23/06/2026 | 15:04 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Charles Schwab Brings Prediction-Market Style Options to Retail Investors
- Charles Schwab is launching binary options tied to the S&P 500, giving retail investors a simpler yes-or-no trading product through Cboe’s options infrastructure.
- The move comes despite Schwab’s earlier criticism of prediction markets and reflects growing demand for outcome-based trading products among retail investors.
Friday, 19/06/2026 | 19:09 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Hits $100B as Questions Keep Piling Up
- A $345 million Iran market has become the latest example of how difficult prediction markets can be to settle when outcomes depend on interpretation rather than clearly verifiable events.
- A coalition of 56 organisations is urging Congress to curb event contracts, even as Canada prepares to bring prediction markets into regulated financial infrastructure.
Friday, 19/06/2026 | 16:21 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Are About to Go Mainstream, and Prop Firms Know It
- A new Acuiti survey found 9% of institutional derivatives firms already trade prediction markets, with another 35% weighing entry.
- Proprietary trading firms are leading the move, even as broad industry confidence hit a five-quarter high on record volumes.
Thursday, 18/06/2026 | 19:00 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Kalshi Integrates with StarCompliance to Bring Institutional Traders Inside the Compliance Perimeter
- Kalshi’s StarCompliance integration lets financial firms monitor employee trading in prediction markets through existing compliance systems.
- The deal addresses a key institutional barrier for event contracts: visibility into employee accounts, audit trails, and potential MNPI risks.
Thursday, 18/06/2026 | 16:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Hits $5.5B in Crypto Perps, Expanding Beyond Prediction Markets
- Kalshi’s new crypto perpetual futures generated more than $5.5 billion in trading volume in their first two weeks.
- The launch gives Kalshi a way to expand beyond event contracts and compete for volume in a much larger derivatives market.
Thursday, 18/06/2026 | 15:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Sports Betting Moves Further Into Prediction Markets as Novig Wins CFTC Approval
- Novig can now operate as a federally regulated prediction market giving it a national route for sports event contracts outside sportsbook licensing.
- The exchange model changes the economics of sports betting: operators compete on liquidity, pricing and market design.
Wednesday, 17/06/2026 | 16:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket’s $354M Iran Dispute Exposes Prediction Markets’ Settlement Problem
- Polymarket’s Iran peace-deal markets drew nearly $354 million in volume but remain disputed over the meaning of a “permanent peace deal.”
- The case shows a growing settlement problem for prediction markets: complex events can be hard to resolve as a simple yes-or-no outcome.
Tuesday, 16/06/2026 | 18:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
World Cup Pushes Kalshi Past $100 Billion as Daily Volumes Cross $1 Billion
- Kalshi’s record weekend highlights how quickly sports-led trading can scale, even as US legal uncertainty remains unresolved.
- Sports contracts drove the latest volume surge on both Kalshi and Polymarket, adding a major new source of liquidity beyond the political events.
Tuesday, 16/06/2026 | 16:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Regulators Write the Rules for a Market They Don’t Fully Control
- The CFTC opened formal rulemaking for prediction markets, even as an estimated $34 billion in annual U.S. trading volume remains offshore.
- Prediction markets expanded into the prop trading industry through Match-Trader, while Kalshi introduced new screening measures designed to identify potential insiders.
Friday, 12/06/2026 | 17:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The CFTC’s New Rulebook Doesn’t Reach a $34 Billion Offshore Prediction Market
- The CFTC’s new prediction market framework sets rules for regulated platforms such as Kalshi, but does not address offshore venues.
- A new study estimates that up to $34 billion in annual prediction market volume comes from U.S. users trading on offshore platforms.
Friday, 12/06/2026 | 11:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Moves to Screen Potential Insiders Before Trades Are Placed
- Kalshi will require employment disclosures for traders participating in certain high-risk prediction markets.
- The move comes as prediction markets face growing scrutiny over insider trading and market surveillance practices.
Wednesday, 10/06/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
BitMart US Enters Prediction Markets Through Plaee in CFTC-Regulated Push
- Partnership enables trading on real-world events including crypto, finance, sports, economics.
- Plaee offers white-label Prediction Trader interface and regulated event contract access.
Wednesday, 10/06/2026 | 14:14 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Perpetuals Defends UpsideOnly's No-Loss Model as Prediction-Market Prop Play Tops $4.5 Billion
- The company reported billions in two-week volume on virtual capital as Perpetuals also signed a tokenized commodities deal with Datavault AI.
- The Nasdaq-listed firm run by a former FTX Europe boss declares it absorbs all trading losses, while declining to say how its book is funded.
Tuesday, 09/06/2026 | 18:00 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|} !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}