Annual prediction-market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035 as contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities take a larger share of trading, according to Bernstein.
London's trading industry is coming home!
The research firm now expects about $410 billion in volume during 2026, raising its April forecast by approximately 71% after activity reached an estimated $300 billion in the first eight months of the year.
Bernstein projects roughly 70% compound annual growth from 2025, although that rate is lifted by the market’s relatively low starting point. From the 2026 estimate, reaching $10 trillion by 2035 would still require annual growth of approximately 43%.
THE BLOCK: Bernstein expects annual prediction market trading volumes to reach $10 trillion by 2035.
— The Block (@TheBlockCo) September 22, 2026
The firm forecasts $410 billion in 2026, with crypto, equities, and commodities projected to overtake sports and account for 49% of volumes by 2035. pic.twitter.com/aXFZjw72Me
Financial Contracts Could Become the Largest Category
Bernstein expects financial-asset contracts to increase their share of prediction-market volume from 12% in 2025 to 49% by 2035. Sports would fall from 61% to 38%, although the category could continue growing in absolute terms.
Contracts tied to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities could account for about $4.7 trillion of the projected $10 trillion annual market.
That estimate assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of activity across the much larger markets for financial contracts, rather than extrapolating solely from current event-contract volumes. Trading data from 2026 provide some support for the shift.
Crypto’s share of Kalshi volume rose from below 5% in January to about 20% in August, helped by short-duration Bitcoin contracts. Sports nevertheless remained Polymarket’s largest category, accounting for approximately 52% of its global volume through August.
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Cboe Tests Trading on Corporate Outcomes
Bernstein expects financial contracts to expand beyond products that track asset prices to markets based on corporate metrics such as production, deliveries or subscriber growth.
Cboe has already sought SEC approval for binary options tied to key performance indicators across 23 companies, as Finance Magnates reported.
The proposed contracts would cover measures such as revenue, product deliveries, segment sales and provisions for credit losses. Each contract would pay $1 if the reported KPI met a specified condition at expiry and zero if it did not.
Unlike Kalshi’s event contracts, the products would trade as securities options through Cboe’s exchange and clearing infrastructure. Current pre-launch materials identify Cboe Clear US as the intended central counterparty, subject to regulatory approval.
Bernstein’s forecast still depends partly on a category facing unresolved legal questions. The firm does not expect definitive clarity for US sports contracts before 2027 or 2028 because courts have reached conflicting conclusions over the boundary between federal derivatives oversight and state gambling regulation.
