Polymarket is outperforming most decentralized finance (DeFi) projects in keeping users active, with the data explaining this trend highlighting on an important challenge facing the broader industry.

A recent analysis by Dune and Keyrock examined user retention across 275 crypto platforms, including wallets, DeFi protocols, and exchanges. The results show that Polymarket maintained stronger month-to-month user activity than 85% of them. In a sector where trading activity often evaporates once volatility Volatility In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, or stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Trad In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, or stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Trad Read this Term fades, this level of consistency stands out.

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For prediction markets like Polymarket, retention grows organically through a structure tied to real-world events—political elections, sports outcomes, or economic indicators, that constantly reset the trading narrative.

Real-World Triggers Keep Users Coming Back

Unlike standard crypto platforms, prediction markets thrive on the news cycle itself. Each headline, from an election poll shift to an inflation report, creates new opportunities for participation.

Additionally, the report observed that exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini, wallet provider Phantom, and clearing firm Bitnomial have each announced moves into the prediction market space over the last quarter.

Coinbase plans to integrate tokenized equities Equities Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa Read this Term and event markets, while Gemini recently launched a nationwide prediction market product aimed at becoming an all-in-one app for digital finance.

Read more: The Winklevoss Twins Just Launched Gemini Predictions in the US

Meanwhile, Bitnomial secured regulatory clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate and clear prediction markets, an approval that could signal broader institutional recognition for the sector.

The numbers reveal the scale of this momentum. Since early 2024, monthly notional volume across prediction markets has leapt from under $100 million to more than $13 billion—a 130-fold increase. Active users grew from just 4,000 to over 600,000, with transactions surging to 43 million.

Polymarket’s mix of trading categories also shows a clear evolution. In 2025, the platform’s volume was split across sports (39%), politics (34%), and crypto (18%), contrasting sharply with Kalshi’s sports-heavy profile, where 85% of volume remains tied to athletic events.

Accuracy Adds to the Appeal

Prediction markets are not only expanding, they are also proving accurate. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reportedly achieve Brier scores near 0.09, outperforming expert polls and even sophisticated economic models.

Polymarket’s event outcomes align correctly about 90–95% of the time, and accuracy continues improving with deeper liquidity. Such precision has turned them into informal measure of macroeconomic and political sentiment.

Key data suggests these markets anticipate shifts faster than traditional forecasts, Kalshi’s inflation contracts, for instance, react 4.3 times less erratically than the Cleveland FedNow model.