Polymarket
Polymarket Lands Bundesliga Deal, the Data Agreement Is Still Missing
- Polymarket secured Bundesliga branding rights for US prediction markets, but official league data still requires a separate agreement with Sportradar.
- The deal expands Polymarket’s sports league portfolio, but the missing data layer may determine how deep its Bundesliga markets can be at launch.
Tuesday, 23/06/2026 | 16:34 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Hits $100B as Questions Keep Piling Up
- A $345 million Iran market has become the latest example of how difficult prediction markets can be to settle when outcomes depend on interpretation rather than clearly verifiable events.
- A coalition of 56 organisations is urging Congress to curb event contracts, even as Canada prepares to bring prediction markets into regulated financial infrastructure.
Friday, 19/06/2026 | 16:21 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket’s $354M Iran Dispute Exposes Prediction Markets’ Settlement Problem
- Polymarket’s Iran peace-deal markets drew nearly $354 million in volume but remain disputed over the meaning of a “permanent peace deal.”
- The case shows a growing settlement problem for prediction markets: complex events can be hard to resolve as a simple yes-or-no outcome.
Tuesday, 16/06/2026 | 18:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
World Cup Pushes Kalshi Past $100 Billion as Daily Volumes Cross $1 Billion
- Kalshi’s record weekend highlights how quickly sports-led trading can scale, even as US legal uncertainty remains unresolved.
- Sports contracts drove the latest volume surge on both Kalshi and Polymarket, adding a major new source of liquidity beyond the political events.
Tuesday, 16/06/2026 | 16:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The CFTC’s New Rulebook Doesn’t Reach a $34 Billion Offshore Prediction Market
- The CFTC’s new prediction market framework sets rules for regulated platforms such as Kalshi, but does not address offshore venues.
- A new study estimates that up to $34 billion in annual prediction market volume comes from U.S. users trading on offshore platforms.
Friday, 12/06/2026 | 11:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Trading Volume Hits $28.4B as Brokers and Market Makers Move In
- Wintermute and Galaxy Digital expanded their prediction market operations, highlighting growing demand for institutional liquidity and larger trade sizes.
- World Cup contracts have already generated roughly $1.5 billion in trading volume, prompting sportsbooks to adjust products and promotions ahead of the tournament.
Friday, 05/06/2026 | 13:26 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Google Employee’s Near-Perfect Polymarket Bets End in Insider Trading Charges
- The Swiss resident made about $1.2 million from his Google-search-related Polymarket bets.
- He purchased “Yes” or “No” shares on at least twenty-three contracts related to the 2025 Year in Search List.
Thursday, 28/05/2026 | 06:45 GMT by
Arnab Shome
Polymarket Targets Japan with Formal Lobbying Effort, Signaling Industry Shift
- Polymarket is pursuing formal government approval in Japan despite some of the strictest gambling laws among major economies.
- The company’s approach in Japan contrasts with its strategy in markets like India, where prediction platforms have continued operating amid regulatory pressure.
Friday, 22/05/2026 | 17:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
US Congress Opens Formal Probe into Kalshi and Polymarket, Targeting KYC and Trade Surveillance
- Congress is demanding detailed records on identity verification, anomaly detection, and insider trading controls from Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The probe increases pressure on prediction market platforms to build compliance infrastructure closer to what regulated brokers and exchanges already use.
Friday, 22/05/2026 | 13:39 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Polymarket Pushes Abroad as Sporttrade Drops Sportsbooks
- Polymarket hired a Japan representative targeting 2030 approval while continuing to operate in India despite a federal ban.
- The SEC delayed prediction market ETFs from Roundhill, GraniteShares, and Bitwise.
Friday, 22/05/2026 | 10:56 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Nasdaq Private Market Becomes Data Provider for Polymarket’s Private Company Markets
- Nasdaq Private Market will provide the data used to resolve Polymarket contracts tied to private companies and unicorn valuations.
- The deal adds another institutional infrastructure layer to prediction markets, alongside recent moves by ICE, Nasdaq, Cboe, and Dow Jones.
Wednesday, 20/05/2026 | 14:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket’s Arbitration Model Faces Conflict-of-Interest Questions
- A Wall Street Journal analysis found that some UMA token holders resolving Polymarket disputes also held positions in the same markets.
- As prediction markets scale institutionally, arbitration and settlement integrity are becoming a growing operational concern.
Monday, 18/05/2026 | 22:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Interactive Brokers Starts “Trading the Future” as SEC Stalls ETF Plans
- Polymarket’s trading activity declined for the first time in eight months as the platform rolled out a major infrastructure overhaul.
- Regulators are still divided on whether prediction markets should be treated as financial derivatives or gambling products, even as institutional adoption accelerates.
Friday, 15/05/2026 | 14:12 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Bitget Wallet: Prediction Markets Will Consolidate in Liquidity but Spread in Access
- Liquidity in prediction markets may concentrate in a few core venues, while access shifts toward wallets and exchanges.
- The competitive edge is moving from building markets to controlling how users access and interpret them.
Monday, 04/05/2026 | 10:18 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Insider Case Triggers Push to Ban Core Trading
- Lawmakers are targeting sports contracts as this segment drives most of the market’s volume.
- As Congress tightens its stance, platforms face pressure on both core products and enforcement credibility.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 12:14 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
100,000 Polymarket Wallets Lost at Least $1,000, Bloomberg Analysis Shows
- Bloomberg and on-chain data show most users lose money, while a small group captures the majority of profits.
- The structure mirrors leveraged trading markets, raising questions about suitability and regulatory response.
Wednesday, 29/04/2026 | 15:25 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Are We All Pigeons? The Hidden Psychology Behind Prediction Markets
- Gambling and prediction markets rely on simple, repetitive interactions that trigger dopamine responses.
- When the probability of an outcome is uncertain, the brain releases significantly more dopamine.
Wednesday, 29/04/2026 | 08:44 GMT by
Sylwester Majewski
How Polymarket Users Move From Crypto to Sports And Why It Matters
- Most users enter through crypto markets, which offer low entry barriers and familiar trading patterns.
- Sports drives engagement, accounting for roughly 64% of total market volume and sustaining repeat activity.
Tuesday, 28/04/2026 | 13:08 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Candidates Bet on Themselves as Platforms Push Into Perpetual Futures
- A senator presses the CFTC on how disputed bets are defined and resolved, highlighting gaps in current oversight.
- Platforms tighten rules while moving into crypto derivatives, expanding beyond event contracts.
Friday, 24/04/2026 | 17:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
U.S. Charges Soldier in First Insider Trading Case Linked to Prediction Markets
- Prosecutors say the defendant used classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket, earning over $400,000.
- The case signals that insider trading laws are now being actively enforced in prediction markets.
Friday, 24/04/2026 | 09:24 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi and Polymarket Move Into Perpetual Futures, Taking On Offshore Exchanges
- Both platforms are launching perpetual futures, extending beyond event contracts into the core crypto derivatives market.
- The move positions them against offshore exchanges, but raises questions about liquidity, pricing, and execution.
Wednesday, 22/04/2026 | 13:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Market Lobbying Spend Rises Over 60% as Regulatory Pressure Builds in Washington
- Industry lobbying spend hit a record in Q1, driven by both prediction platforms and sports betting incumbents.
- The surge reflects how much depends on regulatory outcomes, including whether these markets remain accessible under derivatives rules.
Tuesday, 21/04/2026 | 11:27 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket Seeks $15B Valuation as It Raises Capital Ahead of U.S. Regulatory Outcome
- The new funding would support legal costs, user growth, and infrastructure as Polymarket prepares to re-enter the U.S.
- Major investors are backing the company before regulatory clarity, pricing legal risk into the valuation.
Monday, 20/04/2026 | 12:07 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Courts Weigh State Crackdown as Trading Hits $6.5B
- Courts weigh whether states can block prediction markets as the CFTC asserts federal authority.
- Trading hits $6.5B while platforms narrow offerings and expand infrastructure.
Friday, 17/04/2026 | 09:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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