Polymarket has hired a dedicated representative in Japan to seek government authorization for the platform, setting up a prolonged push against some of the world's most restrictive gambling laws.
The company is targeting official approval by 2030. The effort is being led by Mike Eidlin, a crypto industry veteran who previously ran Japan operations for decentralized exchange Jupiter, Bloomberg reports.
From Defiance to Dialogue
The move reflects a meaningful change in how Polymarket approaches new markets. The default posture has been to operate first and negotiate later.
In India, both Polymarket and Kalshi continue onboarding users despite a federal ban under PROGA and explicit warnings from the technology ministry. In the U.S. and Brazil, platforms have leaned on litigation to defend their classification as financial derivatives after facing blocks and regulatory pressure.
Japan is different. Polymarket is building a regulatory foothold before attempting a commercial launch — a bet that working through official channels will ultimately prove faster than fighting in court after the fact.
The Legal Terrain
Japan's Penal Code carries prison terms of up to five years for gambling operators, and the government's tolerance for new wagering products has been narrowing.
In 2025, Japan passed legislation against online casinos that gave authorities broad powers to block foreign sites and made placing bets on offshore platforms a criminal offence.
The 2026 national budget follows that trend, raising the Casino Management Commission's funding by 5.4% and earmarking new money for the Digital Agency to build surveillance infrastructure for online gambling.
The pachinko industry, worth roughly $100 billion, operates through a well-worn legal workaround, and the government permits specific exceptions like horse racing. But those carve-outs reflect decades of embedded political relationships. Polymarket would be building from scratch.
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The 2030 Calculation
The target date is not arbitrary. Japan's first integrated casino resort, MGM Osaka, is scheduled to open in 2030. Polymarket appears to be positioning itself as part of the broader opening of Japan's regulated gambling sector rather than as a foreign operator trying to punch through the door.
"We're always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways," a company spokesperson said, pointing to "meaningful organic interest" already coming from Asia.
Prediction markets platforms used to launch first and negotiate later. Polymarket is doing the opposite in Japan. If the approach works, it may become the template for every restricted market.
