Kalshi and Polymarket are continuing to onboard users in India despite an explicit federal ban and a direct warning from the country's technology ministry that both platforms are operating illegally.
The situation reflects a pattern increasingly visible among leading prediction market platforms: push into high-growth emerging markets, take the regulatory heat, and keep running until someone actually makes you stop.
The prize in India is significant. Wagers on Indian Premier League cricket matches have already reached nearly half the volume of U.S. Major League Baseball games in some weeks. A single match on May 7 drew over $27 million in trading.
The Regulatory Context
India's position shifted from grey to unambiguous on May 1, 2026, when the new "Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules" (PROGA) took effect, imposing a blanket ban on "online money games."
Local platforms including Probo have already shut down, citing financial liability. The US-based operators are not following suit. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, continues to accept Indian clients. Its legal counsel has stated the firm has not been told to shut down and will comply only when directly requested.
Polymarket, meanwhile, continues to operate without identity verification, allowing Indian users to bypass local internet blocks through VPNs or DNS changes, Bloomberg reports.
Why the Platforms Are Not Backing Down
After raising significant capital last year, Kalshi announced plans to expand into 140 countries. India is a priority market for that expansion, particularly given cricket's digitally native following. The logic is clear: user demand is large, enforcement capacity is limited, and the cost of staying is lower than the cost of leaving.
Brazil has already moved further in that direction. Authorities have explicitly described the platforms as gambling services disguised as financial products.
However, Kalshi's Brazil launch was blocked by the government almost immediately last month. Regulators imposed a nationwide ban on non-financial prediction markets, ordering telecom providers to block platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi. India may follow a similar trajectory, but whether it does so remains to be seen.
There is a clear enforcement gap as the law is clear, but the ability of national regulators to stop a CFTC-registered exchange or a permissionless crypto-native platform from accepting local capital remains constrained.
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What It Means for the Broader Industry
The India situation highlights a growing problem for prediction market platforms operating internationally. US regulatory status does not necessarily translate into legal acceptance in other jurisdictions. The CFTC has backed Kalshi in domestic court battles but has not commented on its international operations.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket rely on dollar-pegged stablecoins for settlement. India's technology ministry has flagged this explicitly as a threat to "economic integrity," making stablecoin infrastructure a liability in any future enforcement or negotiation.
The "regulatory first" approach that worked in Washington does not translate automatically to other jurisdictions. The platforms spent years building legitimacy with US regulators, but in India, and Brazil that credential carries little weight.
It is unclear whether regulators can effectively enforce these restrictions against international platforms. For now, the major prediction market operators continue expanding in these markets.
