XRP price is falling a modest 0.5% during Tuesday's session on January 27, 2026, trading at $1.89.
According to technical analysis, there are currently three distinct downside targets now active: a short-term test of the $1.80 consolidation lower boundary, a medium-term drop to $1.26 representing a 33% decline, and an extreme bearish scenario pointing to $0.53, which would mark a catastrophic 70% correction from current levels.
In this article, I examine how low will XRP price go and what are the most up to date XRP price predictions for 2026.
Why XRP Is Falling Today?
Why XRP is falling today boils down to a combination of technical breakdown risk, macro liquidity drain, and the continuation of a structural bear trend that has been in place since the July 2025 downtrend line was established.
One senior market analyst notes that "liquidity is shrinking across channels," with spot ETFs seeing "less than $7 million" in inflows yesterday after "$1.3 billion of outflows last week", while total crypto futures open interest slid to $128 billion, the weakest levels since early January according to CoinGlass. This liquidity drought is hitting altcoins like XRP particularly hard, as institutional capital rotates away from speculative crypto positions.
Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, notes that "liquidity is shrinking across channels," with spot ETFs seeing "less than $7 million" in inflows yesterday after "$1.3 billion of outflows last week", while total crypto futures open interest slid to $128 billion, the weakest levels since early January according to CoinGlass. This liquidity drought is hitting altcoins like XRP particularly hard, as institutional capital rotates away from speculative crypto positions.
As I documented in my previous analysis, XRP had just logged 7 consecutive down sessions amid tariff fears and a broader crypto selloff. Earlier, on January 19, I warned that XRP had declined in 13 of 14 sessions.
XRP Technical Analysis: Below Moving Averages
XRP is currently trading below both the 50-day moving average at $1.98 and far below the 200-day moving average at $2.55. This confirms that on my chart, XRP remains in a clear downtrend with bears firmly in control. The cryptocurrency is down 48.4% from its year high of $3.67 reached in early January, while sitting only 17.6% above the year low of $1.61 established earlier this month.
From the perspective of my conducted technical analysis, the price has remained in the same consolidation for 2.5 months, with the upper boundary around $2.35, last tested on January 5 when it climbed to medium-term local highs.
At that time, XRP also tested the downtrend line drawn from July 2025, connecting progressively lower highs, which triggered a stronger supply reaction, broke the round $2.00 level, and sent price back down to the lower consolidation boundary around $1.80, tested multiple times including at the start of this year.
- Current XRP price: $1.89 (Tuesday, January 27, 2026)
- Consolidation upper boundary: $2.35 (last tested January 5)
- Consolidation lower boundary: $1.80 (tested multiple times, under threat)
- Downtrend line: From July 2025 highs, connecting lower highs
- 200 EMA: $2.55 (price 25.9% below)
- 50 EMA: $1.98 (price 4.5% below)
Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, observes that "in the perpetuals market, aggressive taker selling over the weekend drove prices lower" and that "momentum suggests further downside risk" with "fast-money flows appear to have rotated into commodities, particularly long silver and copper, while BTC and ETH have been left behind".
If Bitcoin and Ethereum, the market's blue chips, are being abandoned by fast money, XRP faces an even tougher environment as a higher-beta, litigation-scarred altcoin.
What Would Change My Bear View
If XRP is to lift supply pressure from its shoulders, we would need to see price return at least above the downtrend line from July 2025 and also above the 200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA) which currently sits at $2.55. Of course, it will also be necessary to break the upper consolidation boundary around $2.35, which would remove a significant portion of the pressure from buyers' shoulders.
However, I remain a structural bear on XRP. The moving average alignment (price below 50 EMA below 200 EMA), the downtrend line resistance, and the failure to reclaim $2.00 all confirm the bearish bias on my chart.
For real-time XRP technical analysis, follow me on X (Twitter) @ChmielDk. I provide moving average updates, Fibonacci projections, and liquidity flow insights on why XRP is falling and how low it can go.
How Low Can XRP Go? My Three Downside Targets
The critical question, how low will XRP go, has three distinct answers depending on the depth and duration of the correction according to my technical analysis.
Short-Term Target: $1.80 (-7%)
As you can see on my chart, XRP is currently trading at $1.89, just 7% above the $1.80 lower consolidation boundary that has been tested multiple times over the past 2.5 months. This is the immediate level under attack, and given the weakening momentum, compressed volatility, and position below both moving averages, a test of this support appears imminent.
In the short term, I am targeting a return to the $1.80 level, which means a potential decline of about 7% from current prices. This level has held on multiple occasions, but the proximity to the year low of $1.61 (only 17.6% below current price) suggests limited cushion if $1.80 breaks.
Medium-Term Target: $1.26 (-33%)
In the medium term, if the lower consolidation boundary at $1.80 is broken cleanly, according to my technical analysis I am targeting a level around just $1.26, the flash-crash low from October 10 on the Binance exchange . This represents a potential decline of 33% from current levels and would mark a complete breakdown of the 2.5-month consolidation structure.
On my chart, this $1.26 level represents the next major historical support zone once the $1.80 floor gives way. It also aligns closely with the $1.25 target I identified in the past.
You can also check my previous XRP price prediction articles:
- How Low Can XRP Go? Death Cross XRP Price Prediction Signals 50% Drop Risk
- How High Will XRP Price Go In 2026? XRP Just Crushed Bitcoin and Ethereum Returns, Gains 25%
- XRP Price Prediction 2026: Can XRP Hit $8?
Long-Term Ultra-Bearish Target: $0.53 (-70%)
My long-term, ultra-bearish scenario based on Fibonacci extensions paints an even grimmer picture. Measuring the downtrend from July to December 2025 and then the correction we interrupted at the turn of December and January this year, the 100% Fibonacci extension falls at a level of just under $0.53.
This would represent the lowest XRP price since November 2024 and a potential decline of approximately 70% from current levels. While this is an extreme scenario, it remains technically valid on my chart if macro conditions worsen significantly, liquidity continues draining from altcoins, and the broader crypto market enters a full risk-off cascade.
XRP Price Prediction Roadmap
Target | Level | Decline from Current | Scenario | Chart Basis |
Short-term | $1.80 | -6% to -7% | Consolidation lower boundary, immediate test | Tested multiple times, weakening |
Medium-term | $1.26 | -33% | Flash-crash low (Oct 10, Binance) | Next major support if $1.80 breaks |
Extreme bearish | $0.53 | -70% | 100% Fibonacci extension, Nov 2024 lows | July-Dec downtrend + correction measure |
Liquidity Drain Supports Bear Case
Hasn’s observation that "liquidity is shrinking across channels" with spot ETFs seeing minimal inflows and crypto futures open interest dropping to $128 billion (weakest since early January) aligns perfectly with the weakness visible on the XRP chart. When institutional liquidity evaporates, high-beta altcoins like XRP suffer disproportionately.
Maxime Seiler, CEO at STS Digital, adds that "the broader picture is one of heavy volatility supply, realized volatility has been subdued, and implied volatility is likely to remain under pressure until a meaningful catalyst forces a repricing".
This fits the grinding, low-volatility breakdown pattern. Price slowly compressing toward the $1.80 support before an eventual break and acceleration lowerWhy is XRP falling today?
XRP is falling today due to technical breakdown risk at $1.80 consolidation support, continued downtrend from July 2025 line, and shrinking liquidity. Price at $1.89, down 0.46%, trades 25.9% below 200 EMA at $2.55 and 4.5% below 50 EMA at $1.98. One senior analyst notes "liquidity is shrinking across channels" with spot ETFs seeing less than $7 million inflows after $1.3 billion outflows last week. As I documented in my January 21 Finance Magnates analysis, XRP logged 7 straight down sessions amid $1.7B market-wide liquidations.
XRP Price Analysis, FAQ
How low can XRP go?
According to my technical analysis, XRP has three downside targets: short-term $1.80 (consolidation lower boundary, -5% to -6%), medium-term $1.26 (October 10 flash-crash low, -33%), and extreme $0.53 (100% Fibonacci extension, -70% from current $1.89).
What is XRP price prediction for 2026?
My XRP price prediction: near-term test of $1.80 support likely within days, followed by breakdown to $1.26 medium-term target (-33%) on my chart. If macro worsens and liquidity drain accelerates, extreme $0.53 Fibonacci target (-70%) remains valid.
Why is XRP falling after reaching $3.67?
XRP falling from year high $3.67 due to downtrend line from July 2025 resistance, failure to hold above $2.00, and structural bear market. Now at $1.89, down 48.4% from highs, only 17.6% above year low $1.61.
How low will XRP go if $1.80 breaks?
If $1.80 consolidation floor breaks cleanly, XRP will target $1.26 (October 10 flash-crash low, -33% from current $1.89).
