XTB is heading into its preliminary fourth-quarter earnings report with expectations of a financial rebound, driven by favorable market volatility and a massive influx of new traders. Analysts at Noble Securities expect the Warsaw-listed broker (WSE: XTB) to report a net profit of 205 million zlotys ($56.8 million) for the final three months of 2025, bringing the estimated full-year total to 673 million zlotys ($186.4 million).

The firm is hoping to leave behind the sluggishness of the previous quarter, when low market volatility sent revenues down 20% year-on-year.

XTB Revenue Streams Diversify As CFD Competition Mounts

The brokerage is grappling with a fundamental shift in the European trading landscape. The arrival of international platforms like Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Trade Republic has made the continent a primary battleground for retail capital.

This competition is starting to impact XTB’s numbers, as the company saw a record client outflow in the third quarter of 2025, with 21.5 thousand users leaving the platform.

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Mateusz Chrzanowski, an analyst at Noble Securities, noted that the drop in profitability per lot over recent months isn't just about market conditions. He suggested that “we cannot rule out that part of the reduction is also due to growing competition and that this effect will deepen in the future.”

The firm’s decision to scrap its planned expansion into Brazil has also limited the potential growth ceiling for its traditional CFD business.

Despite these hurdles, the fourth quarter provided a more helpful backdrop for the broker's core trading desk. Gains in gold and volatile moves in natural gas helped offset a quieter period for the DAX.

“This environment should allow for a return to the average level of profitability per lot seen in recent years, which, with the continued growth of the customer base, will in our opinion generate a net profit of 205 million zlotys ($56.8 million) in the fourth quarter...” Chrzanowski wrote in the report.

XTB Financial Performance and Forecasts

Noble Securities Seeks To Rebound From Previous Forecasting Miss

This latest forecast represents a cautious reset for Noble Securities. The firm’s previous projection for the third quarter proved overly optimistic. Chrzanowski had predicted a profit of 190 million zlotys ($52.6 million) that ultimately missed the mark as market conditions soured.

To maintain its lead, XTB is doubling down on a high-spending growth model. The company’s marketing Marketing Marketing is defined as the business process of identifying, anticipating and satisfying customers' needs and wants.This is a crucial element of any operation or brokerage in the financial services space. Well-funded marketing campaigns are instrumental to the survival and longevity of these companies in an increasingly competitive industry.Within the forex space, marketers perform a wide range of functions to help procure, secure, or retain clients.In particular, newer forex brokers also have t Marketing is defined as the business process of identifying, anticipating and satisfying customers' needs and wants.This is a crucial element of any operation or brokerage in the financial services space. Well-funded marketing campaigns are instrumental to the survival and longevity of these companies in an increasingly competitive industry.Within the forex space, marketers perform a wide range of functions to help procure, secure, or retain clients.In particular, newer forex brokers also have t Read this Term budget jumped by roughly 75% in 2025, a move that helped it sign up an estimated 865,000 new clients over the year. This aggressive acquisition strategy has been particularly successful in its home market, where XTB added over 442,000 Polish accounts in 2025 as a year-end rush pushed the total market past a significant milestone.

The optimistic outlook follows a difficult period for the brokerage, which recently saw its shares upgraded despite posting some of its weakest financial results since 2022.

Marketing Blitz Targets 1.3 Million New Users

The pace of acquisition Acquisition Acquisition means acquiring or taking possession or the securing of property, services, or abilities. To put it simply, it is the act or process of acquiring or gaining. You can acquire a work of art, you can acquire an ability such as speaking another language, you can acquire a business or shares in a company and you can acquire an accountant's service. For example, you can acquire a new car. In a broad sense, Acquisition can mean the act of taking ownership or possession of something. There Acquisition means acquiring or taking possession or the securing of property, services, or abilities. To put it simply, it is the act or process of acquiring or gaining. You can acquire a work of art, you can acquire an ability such as speaking another language, you can acquire a business or shares in a company and you can acquire an accountant's service. For example, you can acquire a new car. In a broad sense, Acquisition can mean the act of taking ownership or possession of something. There Read this Term is expected to accelerate, with Noble Securities forecasting that XTB will onboard 1.3 million new users in 2026 as marketing spend grows by another 50%. The cost of acquiring these customers has stabilized at around 700 zlotys ($194) per head.

This scaling is aimed at building a massive user base before the firm rolls out its next wave of products, including crypto spot trading and options. The push for volume is already showing results in the data. Trading volumes recently jumped 76% as the Polish market experienced a significant surge in activity.

If the current trajectory holds, the brokerage is on track to hit a net profit of 1 billion zlotys ($277.2 million) in 2026. This milestone depends on successfully diversifying its revenue, which already saw income from stocks and ETFs nearly double in the first nine months of 2025.

Market reaction to the projections was positive during Wednesday's session, with XTB shares rising to 76.80 zlotys ($21.28). Noble Securities maintained its “buy” rating, raising its price target to 95.70 zlotys ($26.51).