Interactive Brokers is reframing prediction markets as a source of actionable intelligence rather than a speculative product, as the firm expands access to multiple venues and targets sophisticated investors seeking signals.
Speaking to CNBC, founder and chairman Thomas Peterffy rejected the idea that the broker’s recent expansion in this space reflects pressure from platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Instead, he argued that the industry often misreads the purpose of these markets.
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“The primary importance of prediction markets for IBKR is that they are a source of vital information for our customers. Our customers must know how the economy is evolving in different regions and consumer demographics and industries around the globe.”
From Trading to Information
Peterffy said clients rely on prediction markets to understand how economic conditions evolve across regions and sectors. He described the data as a way to anticipate demand shifts and align investment decisions accordingly.
Related: Interactive Brokers UK Profit Jumps 150% to £34 Million as Client Count Tops 86,000
He added that prediction markets convert expectations into measurable probabilities. This structure allows investors to interpret future scenarios with more clarity than traditional indicators.
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Interactive Brokers is integrating prediction markets into its existing infrastructure by aggregating liquidity from multiple venues. The firm already combines pricing data across equities and options markets. The approach suggests that brokers may compete on access and pricing rather than operating standalone prediction markets.
Building a Market Aggregator
“We aggregate currently information from all the stock and options exchanges and make it available to the consolidated quote to our customers. We are doing the same for prediction markets and other platforms are likely to try to do the same.”
However, IBKR is taking a selective approach to the types of contracts it offers. The platform excludes sports-related markets and focuses on events with economic relevance.
Instead, the broker prioritizes instruments tied to economic indicators, elections, and climate developments. This positioning aligns with its focus on professional and institutional clients.
Indeed, last week, Interactive Brokers rolled out a unified event trading feature that bundles access to Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx into a single interface. The system aggregates contracts across venues and routes orders to the best available price, removing the need for multiple accounts and positioning the broker as an access layer rather than a standalone prediction market operator.
Turning Prediction Markets Into Unified Data
The rollout supports Peterffy’s broader argument that prediction markets function as an information tool. By consolidating contracts tied to elections, economic indicators, and climate events, the platform allows clients to interpret probability signals across markets in one place.
“Prediction markets are reshaping how investors think about risk and uncertainty,” said Milan Galik, Chief Executive Officer of Interactive Brokers. He said the company wants to give clients access to several venues through one platform, much like how they trade traditional assets today.
Meanwhile, Tradeweb took an institutional approach to prediction markets by partnering with Kalshi and acquiring a minority stake. FOREX.com, through parent company StoneX, opted for a narrower model by partnering with Kalshi to offer clients access to US election event contracts.