CFTC
CFTC Puts Prediction-Market Rewards Under the Microscope
- Material changes to rebates, eligibility or products require a fresh submission and restart the 10-business-day review.
- The agency flagged wash-trading risks, guaranteed-profit structures and chance-based rewards.
Thursday, 13/08/2026 | 07:26 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Stay Open as New York Seeks $36 Billion
- The regulator declared New York's lawsuit a market emergency, warning that a shutdown could force liquidations and distort event-contract prices.
- The order is the CFTC's second use of emergency powers involving Kalshi and a state court dispute in less than a month.
Wednesday, 12/08/2026 | 06:58 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
US Retail Forex Deposits Fall to $462 Million, the Lowest Since at Least 2023
- A third consecutive monthly decline wiped out the first-quarter recovery and undercut January's trough.
- The regulator's figure moves with trading profit and loss as well as with client withdrawals.
Tuesday, 11/08/2026 | 11:45 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
CFTC Tells Prediction Markets: If It's a Derivative, Don't Make It Look Like a Bet
- The CFTC told regulated event-contract firms not to use American-style bookmaker odds when listing, soliciting or advertising derivatives.
- The warning shows that the legal fight over prediction markets is now shaping how firms display prices and market contracts to customers.
Friday, 07/08/2026 | 20:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CME's 24/7 Gold Futures Draw $60 Million in Debut Weekend While Crude Oil Stays Blocked
- Nearly 15,000 one-ounce gold contracts traded during the first weekend of continuous dealing, CME Group said.
- The CFTC has pushed its comment deadline on 24/7 energy trading and crude perpetuals back to August 26.
Tuesday, 28/07/2026 | 10:48 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Kalshi Moves Ahead with First Expansion Beyond Crypto Perpetual Futures
- Kalshi has filed its first CFTC application to launch perpetual futures tied to gold, silver and platinum, extending its US-regulated perpetuals strategy beyond cryptocurrencies.
- The filing follows Reuters’ earlier report of broader expansion plans and comes as CME continues challenging crypto perpetuals while extending trading hours for traditional futures.
Tuesday, 21/07/2026 | 20:46 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Fines Netrios and Red Acre $2.5 Million Over Off-Exchange Trades for US Clients
- The two offshore firms ran the tech behind platforms that took on US retail traders off-exchange, the regulator said.
- Both belong to the fintech group behind TradeLocker and FunderPro, per company statements and prior FinanceMagnates.com reporting.
Tuesday, 30/06/2026 | 06:40 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Inside Prediction Markets: Lawsuits Mount as New Products and Partnerships Keep Coming
- Kalshi is reportedly seeking a $40 billion valuation, underscoring how quickly investor appetite for prediction markets continues to grow.
- Official sports data, securities-market distribution, and federal rulemaking all emerged as competitive battlegrounds this week.
Friday, 26/06/2026 | 11:18 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Opens Public Comment on Energy Perps One Month After Opening the Door for Bitcoin
- The CFTC is asking whether perpetual futures can work for crude oil, where reference prices, funding rates and weekend margin calls are harder to manage than in bitcoin.
- The consultation highlights a broader infrastructure issue for 24/7 derivatives: brokers may need new collateral and settlement models when traditional payment rails are closed.
Tuesday, 23/06/2026 | 08:07 GMT by
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Hits $100B as Questions Keep Piling Up
- A $345 million Iran market has become the latest example of how difficult prediction markets can be to settle when outcomes depend on interpretation rather than clearly verifiable events.
- A coalition of 56 organisations is urging Congress to curb event contracts, even as Canada prepares to bring prediction markets into regulated financial infrastructure.
Friday, 19/06/2026 | 16:21 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
"Always Up for a Good Battle": CME Takes Aim at CFTC in High-Stakes Lawsuit Over Perps
- CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy has told CNBC that the derivatives giant will file a federal lawsuit against the CFTC over its approval of bitcoin perpetual futures for Kalshi and Coinbase, arguing perps are legally swaps under Dodd-Frank, not futures.
- The legal fight could redefine how US regulators classify crypto derivatives, with CME warning that high-leverage perps with auto-liquidation mechanisms risk a systemic crisis echoing the 2008 financial meltdown.
Thursday, 18/06/2026 | 07:17 GMT by
Arnab Shome
Sports Betting Moves Further Into Prediction Markets as Novig Wins CFTC Approval
- Novig can now operate as a federally regulated prediction market giving it a national route for sports event contracts outside sportsbook licensing.
- The exchange model changes the economics of sports betting: operators compete on liquidity, pricing and market design.
Wednesday, 17/06/2026 | 16:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kraken Taps Bitnomial Deal to Unlock CFTC-Regulated Crypto Perpetual Futures in US
- Perpetual futures generated more than $60 trillion in annual trading volume in 2025, according to the firm.
- The company integrates perpetual futures with spot, margin, and CME-listed crypto products.
Monday, 15/06/2026 | 17:02 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
The CFTC’s New Rulebook Doesn’t Reach a $34 Billion Offshore Prediction Market
- The CFTC’s new prediction market framework sets rules for regulated platforms such as Kalshi, but does not address offshore venues.
- A new study estimates that up to $34 billion in annual prediction market volume comes from U.S. users trading on offshore platforms.
Friday, 12/06/2026 | 11:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Crypto Perps in the US Will Fill the “Offshore” Workaround. Does That Make Europe Over-Cautious?
- The CFTC recently allowed the local circulation of crypto perps, with three American platforms already ready to offer them. One of them is prediction markets giant Kalshi.
- Trading volume in these instruments reached $61.7 trillion in 2025, with the majority of activity occurring offshore.
Monday, 01/06/2026 | 08:00 GMT by
Arnab Shome
CFTC Pushes Prediction Markets Into Formal Federal Rulemaking
- After years of lawsuits, insider trading probes, and state bans, the prediction market sector is entering a formal federal rulemaking process.
- The outcome could determine whether event contracts operate under a unified federal derivatives framework or continue facing state-level gambling restrictions.
Thursday, 28/05/2026 | 08:31 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Polymarket Pushes Abroad as Sporttrade Drops Sportsbooks
- Polymarket hired a Japan representative targeting 2030 approval while continuing to operate in India despite a federal ban.
- The SEC delayed prediction market ETFs from Roundhill, GraniteShares, and Bitwise.
Friday, 22/05/2026 | 10:56 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
SEC Delays Prediction Market ETFs, Signaling Turf Battle with CFTC
- The SEC has delayed a wave of ETFs tied to prediction markets while it reviews the regulatory implications.
- The decision could determine how quickly event-based trading enters mainstream brokerage platforms.
Thursday, 21/05/2026 | 17:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Casino Lobby Calls CFTC a “Rogue Agency” Over Prediction Markets
- The American Gaming Association is challenging the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets.
- For brokers and exchanges, the core issue is whether federal CFTC oversight can override state gambling licenses.
Thursday, 21/05/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
US Prop Firms Are Now Moving Inside the CFTC Perimeter. An Opportunity or a Survival Strategy?
- Tradeify recently launched a CFTC-regulated IB platform, while Topstep registered as a Swap Firm. MyFundedFutures is also looking to become an IB there.
- Although the CFTC dropped the My Forex Funds lawsuit, a licensed presence secures the future of these prop firms in the country.
Thursday, 21/05/2026 | 13:00 GMT by
Arnab Shome
Sporttrade Exits Sports Betting to Rebuild Around Prediction Markets Under CFTC Oversight
- Sporttrade is replacing its state sportsbook model with a federally regulated event-trading structure tied to the CFTC.
- DraftKings and FanDuel are also expanding into event contracts, but Sporttrade is one of the few firms leaving the sportsbook model behind entirely.
Tuesday, 19/05/2026 | 15:00 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Raises $1B as Regulatory Tensions Escalate
- Flutter confirmed it is already generating revenue from prediction markets through market-making and liquidity provision rather than retail exchange operations.
- The CFTC’s latest review process exposed a growing divide between firms treating event contracts as financial derivatives and critics who see them as gambling products.
Friday, 08/05/2026 | 11:41 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi’s Legal Argument Tested as Courts Probe ‘Swap’ Classification
- Massachusetts justices questioned whether federal derivatives law can override state gambling rules in Kalshi’s case.
- The outcome could determine whether prediction markets operate under federal oversight or face state-by-state regulation.
Tuesday, 05/05/2026 | 10:06 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Gambling or Derivatives: CFTC Rulemaking Exposes a Structural Divide Over Prediction Markets
- Industry players argue these markets provide price discovery and hedging, while critics say they lack economic purpose and resemble betting.
- The outcome will define whether the sector integrates into Wall Street or is regulated like Las Vegas.
Monday, 04/05/2026 | 14:08 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Reviews Reporting Rules as Prediction Markets Enter Commodities
- Kalshi limits trading hours on agricultural contracts as the CFTC reviews reporting requirements.
- Prediction platforms entering commodities face the same transparency rules as traditional exchanges.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 22:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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