CFTC
Kalshi’s Legal Argument Tested as Courts Probe ‘Swap’ Classification
- Massachusetts justices questioned whether federal derivatives law can override state gambling rules in Kalshi’s case.
- The outcome could determine whether prediction markets operate under federal oversight or face state-by-state regulation.
Tuesday, 05/05/2026 | 10:06 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Gambling or Derivatives: CFTC Rulemaking Exposes a Structural Divide Over Prediction Markets
- Industry players argue these markets provide price discovery and hedging, while critics say they lack economic purpose and resemble betting.
- The outcome will define whether the sector integrates into Wall Street or is regulated like Las Vegas.
Monday, 04/05/2026 | 14:08 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Reviews Reporting Rules as Prediction Markets Enter Commodities
- Kalshi limits trading hours on agricultural contracts as the CFTC reviews reporting requirements.
- Prediction platforms entering commodities face the same transparency rules as traditional exchanges.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 22:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Insider Case Triggers Push to Ban Core Trading
- Lawmakers are targeting sports contracts as this segment drives most of the market’s volume.
- As Congress tightens its stance, platforms face pressure on both core products and enforcement credibility.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 12:14 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The US Prediction-Markets Fight Just Split Into Two Opposite Lawsuits. Plus500 Sits In The Middle
- U.S. regulators are split on prediction markets, treating the same product as either derivatives or gambling, and pushing the issue into courts.
- Plus500 has positioned itself as a broker and infrastructure provider across both models, gaining exposure to the sector’s growth.
Thursday, 30/04/2026 | 15:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Candidates Bet on Themselves as Platforms Push Into Perpetual Futures
- A senator presses the CFTC on how disputed bets are defined and resolved, highlighting gaps in current oversight.
- Platforms tighten rules while moving into crypto derivatives, expanding beyond event contracts.
Friday, 24/04/2026 | 17:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Courts Weigh State Crackdown as Trading Hits $6.5B
- Courts weigh whether states can block prediction markets as the CFTC asserts federal authority.
- Trading hits $6.5B while platforms narrow offerings and expand infrastructure.
Friday, 17/04/2026 | 09:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
A Turf War Over Prediction Markets: Washington and the States Clash Again
- CFTC has asked an Arizona court to block the state from applying its gambling laws to prediction markets.
- The regulator sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois early this month for overreach on prediction markets.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 16:24 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Polymarket Replaces Bridged USDC Aiming for a U.S. Relaunch
- The platform is replacing bridged USDC with a native token backed 1:1 by reserve-held USDC.
- The overhaul reduces bridge risk and adds features institutional traders typically require, including multisig support.
Tuesday, 07/04/2026 | 13:42 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: $1.6B Institutional Inflow Meets a Federal Crackdown
- The CFTC names insider trading a priority as ICE closes its Polymarket investment and Kalshi wins margin approval.
- Enforcement tightens while capital and activity continue to grow across prediction markets.
Friday, 03/04/2026 | 12:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for Overreach on Prediction Markets
- Chair Michael Selig earlier said that the regulator will defend its exclusive jurisdiction on the prediction markets.
- CFTC maintains that prediction market contracts are derivatives, and that insider trading laws apply.
Thursday, 02/04/2026 | 19:09 GMT by
Jared Kirui
CFTC Says Prediction Markets Are Derivatives, Not Gambling - and Insider Trading Laws Apply
- The regulator is pushing back on the idea that prediction markets operate outside existing trading rules.
- For firms, the focus shifts to monitoring how non-public information is used in event-based trading.
Wednesday, 01/04/2026 | 10:55 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Senator Warren Leads Push to Tighten Insider Trading Enforcement in Prediction Markets
- Lawmakers are asking regulators to clarify how insider trading rules apply to event-based contracts.
- For brokers and platforms, the focus is shifting toward monitoring, detection and internal controls.
Tuesday, 31/03/2026 | 09:32 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
U.S. Bill Targets Sports Prediction Contracts, Creating Uncertainty for Brokers
- The bill could force platforms to drop sports contracts or shift them to state-level regulation.
- For brokers, the key question is whether existing product plans and integrations will remain viable under changing rules.
Monday, 23/03/2026 | 10:49 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Starting to Play by the Rules
- Zero-fee trading, new rules, and state actions show prediction markets are starting to operate like real markets.
- As regulators tighten oversight and liquidity concentrates, institutions are still watching — but not trading.
Friday, 20/03/2026 | 14:32 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Moves into Sports-Linked Prediction Markets With “First-Ever” MLB Agreement
- The regulator partners with MLB ahead of 2026 season on market integrity issues.
- The MOU allows information sharing under law to support incident response and identification of emerging risks.
Thursday, 19/03/2026 | 15:04 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
SEC and CFTC Finally Align on Crypto: “Most Assets Aren’t Securities”
- CFTC previously treated Bitcoin and Ether as commodities under the Commodity Exchange Act.
- SEC, meanwhile, classified many tokens sold through ICOs as securities under the Howey Test.
Tuesday, 17/03/2026 | 22:00 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Banks Begin Applying Insider Trading Rules to Prediction Markets
- Internal policy reviews mark one of the first signs that prediction markets are entering formal corporate oversight.
- Banks are beginning to treat event-based trading as a potential compliance risk rather than a fringe product.
Tuesday, 17/03/2026 | 10:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Can Your Platform Launch Prediction Markets? A CFTC Compliance Checklist
- The CFTC has released new guidance for prediction markets — and it reads almost like a compliance test for platforms.
- Before launching event contracts, platforms may need to prove their markets can withstand manipulation and insider trading.
Friday, 13/03/2026 | 11:10 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Opens Consultation on Prediction Markets, Weighs New Rules for Event Contracts
- The regulator withdrew 2024 ban proposal on political and sports-related contracts ahead of consultation.
- Division of Market Oversight reminds exchanges of obligations amid growing prediction market activity.
Thursday, 12/03/2026 | 15:36 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
CFTC Chief Just Said "We Do Not Decide What You Should Trade"
- Chairman Michael Selig says the agency will move away from rule-by-enforcement and focus on fraud and market manipulation.
- Remarks outline a broader shift in derivatives oversight, including prediction markets and regulatory rollbacks.
Tuesday, 10/03/2026 | 08:11 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Inside the Prediction Markets: When the Real World Hits the Markets
- War bets, insider-trading concerns, and lawsuits put prediction markets under real-world stress.
- As geopolitical events hit the order book, regulators, courts, and exchanges test the rules of event trading.
Friday, 06/03/2026 | 12:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
US Crypto Perps Are Coming Within a Few Weeks, Says CFTC Chair
- The goal for the US regulator is to recapture the liquidity that has bled to offshore platforms while preserving investor protection.
- Meanwhile, ESMA is moving in the other direction, saying that crypto perps may be akin to CFDs.
Wednesday, 04/03/2026 | 12:52 GMT by
Adonis Adoni
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