Prediction Markets Still Count as Binary Options

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said on 3 July that products marketed as “event contracts” may still fall under the EU’s ban on binary options for retail clients, regardless of how they are branded. The statement was directed at both firms and national competent authorities and comes amid growing global interest in prediction markets and increased retail participation.

ESMA describes event contracts as agreements with a binary outcome, offering either a fixed payout or nothing depending on the result of a future yes-or-no event. However, the regulator noted that not all event contracts qualify as financial instruments. Their classification depends on whether the underlying question relates to areas covered under MiFID II MiFID II MiFID II stands for the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, and is the second iteration of a sweeping directive. As such it is known as MiFID II. The original Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) became effective in November 2007. It was intended as the foundation of the EU’s Financial Services Action Plan, a comprehensive project to create a single European market in financial services. MiFID is intended to create a level playing field for firms to compete in the EU’s fina MiFID II stands for the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, and is the second iteration of a sweeping directive. As such it is known as MiFID II. The original Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) became effective in November 2007. It was intended as the foundation of the EU’s Financial Services Action Plan, a comprehensive project to create a single European market in financial services. MiFID is intended to create a level playing field for firms to compete in the EU’s fina Read this Term.

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Meanwhile, prediction markets exceeded $50 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time in June, a 75% jump from May, according to Artemis data, driven in part by event-based demand during the FIFA World Cup. Kalshi led the market with about $33 billion in volume, while Polymarket handled $14 billion across its international platform and newly launched US-regulated exchange. Rothera, backed by Robinhood, contributed approximately $2 billion.

Plus500 targets prediction markets

Still with the prediction markets, Plus500 expanded its US prediction markets offering by adding CFTC-regulated sports event contracts. It marked another step in its broader push into the fast-growing retail trading segment. The London-listed firm has been steadily building its presence in this space, positioning itself as part of the infrastructure supporting the category’s growth.

The broker now offers Kalshi’s sports-based contracts, including markets on the NFL, NBA, and MLB, through its Plus500 Futures platform, its US retail brand. The rollout follows its February launch of prediction market contracts covering economic, financial, and geopolitical events, also powered by Kalshi.

ASIC warns crypto perps evade CFD rules

Australia’s corporate regulator has warned that crypto perpetual futures are expanding faster than the country’s regulatory framework. These leveraged contracts, which have no expiry date, offer exposure similar to contracts for difference (CFDs) but are typically sold to Australian users through offshore platforms beyond the regulator’s direct oversight.

ASIC said perpetual futures and CFDs are increasingly similar in structure, as both provide leveraged exposure to assets without ownership and operate on margin. The key difference lies in how they are structured: CFDs are over-the-counter products where providers set terms such as fees and margin, while perpetual futures use a funding rate mechanism exchanged between long and short positions.

cTrader restricts US prop firm access after review

Several US retail prop trading firms have recently revised their onboarding policies to stop offering cTrader accounts to new clients in the country. The changes have been introduced gradually over the past few months, effectively limiting access to the platform for US-based traders. Firms including The5ers, FundedNext, and Goat Funded Trader have implemented such restrictions.

The5ers updated its guidelines in June to make cTrader available only to non-US clients, while FundedNext has blocked new cTrader accounts for US users since March and now directs them to Match-Trader. Goat Funded Trader made a similar move in April, offering alternatives such as Match-Trader, TradeLocker, and Volumetrica to its US clients.

South Africa’s ODP rules drive out foreign brokers

Elsewhere, South Africa’s Over-the-Counter Derivatives Providers (ODP) license registry shows a notable shift among non-bank firms. Of the 70 entities listed, four have surrendered their licences, while 26 withdrew their applications altogether. IG Group, one of the more prominent entrants, established operations in the country but later exited completely, highlighting a broader trend of foreign brokers pulling back from the market.

Industry participants point to the Financial Sector Conduct Authority’s (FSCA) strict regulatory framework as a key factor. ODP licence holders face high operating costs, tighter supervision, and increased audit and compliance obligations. According to SALVUS Funds Managing Director Nikolas Xenofontos, the cost of maintaining an ODP licence has become significantly elevated. Requirements include maintaining a physical office with staff, dedicated compliance and accounting functions, appointed key individuals, and at least three locally based executive directors.

FCA eases stablecoin rules after backlash

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has revised its proposed stablecoin rules, cutting the capital requirement for issuers from 2% to 1%. The change follows sustained industry criticism, with David Geale, the FCA’s head of payments Payments One of the bases of mediums of exchange in the modern world, a payment constitutes the transfer of a legal currency or equivalent from one party in exchange for goods or services to another entity. The payments industry has become a fixture of modern commerce, though the players involved and means of exchange have dramatically shifted over time.In particular, a party making a payment is referred to as a payer, with the payee reflecting the individual or entity receiving the payment. Most commonl One of the bases of mediums of exchange in the modern world, a payment constitutes the transfer of a legal currency or equivalent from one party in exchange for goods or services to another entity. The payments industry has become a fixture of modern commerce, though the players involved and means of exchange have dramatically shifted over time.In particular, a party making a payment is referred to as a payer, with the payee reflecting the individual or entity receiving the payment. Most commonl Read this Term and digital finance, acknowledging that the original threshold may have been too high for current market conditions.

In addition to lowering the capital buffer, the FCA has eased its approach to redemption timelines and public disclosure requirements. The updated framework is scheduled to come into force in October 2027.

CMC Markets lands Everton shirt sponsorship

CMC Markets has signed a multi-year agreement to become the main partner of Everton Football Club. As part of the deal, the company will serve as the front-of-shirt sponsor for Everton’s senior men’s, women’s, and under-21 teams. Its branding will also be displayed at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Goodison Park, and Finch Farm, as well as across the club’s matchday and digital platforms.

The partnership is part of CMC Markets’ broader strategy to expand awareness of its financial services beyond traditional trading. The company said it aims to reach long-term investors, active traders, and institutional clients through its investing, trading, and wealth offerings.

Shares in CMC Markets surged about 23% to around 570 pence on Wednesday, hitting a record high after the London-listed broker upgraded its annual profit forecast. The rally pushed the stock above its previous peak of 559 pence, set in April 2021 during the pandemic-driven trading boom.

Brokers rethink engagement in post-bonus market

Brokers have long relied on aggressive marketing and bonus-driven incentives to attract new clients, a strategy that delivered strong growth but left them exposed to regulatory and market shifts. That approach is now becoming less viable as stricter regulations, increased scrutiny, and ongoing margin pressure reshape the industry, forcing firms to move away from many of their traditional growth tactics.

At the same time, acquiring new clients has become more difficult and expensive due to tighter rules and advertising restrictions on major online platforms. In response, brokers are shifting their focus from rapid acquisition to long-term client retention. Success in the current environment depends more on building meaningful relationships and delivering consistent value, rather than relying on short-term incentives. This has led firms to rethink their engagement strategies, placing greater emphasis on relevance, trust, and sustainable growth.

Autochartist evolves into oneZero’s engagement layer after acquisition

Lastly, more than a year after oneZero completed its acquisition of Autochartist, the integration is beginning to show clear results. While the two firms initially appeared to operate in different parts of the capital markets technology stack, their combined offering is proving complementary, strengthening the overall product suite as integration progresses.

Autochartist brings over 15 years of experience in automated analytics and signal generation, transforming real-time market data into actionable insights for financial institutions. oneZero, in contrast, has built its position as an enterprise-grade trading infrastructure provider, offering pricing, connectivity, liquidity distribution, and risk management solutions at the core of operations for brokers, banks, and liquidity providers worldwide.

Fed’s new test, SpaceX’s biggest bet

Financial markets reacted cautiously earlier this year when Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. Warsh, a former Fed governor, had long been on Trump’s radar and was widely expected to align more closely with the administration’s views on interest rates—unlike Powell, who had faced public criticism from Trump for not cutting rates quickly enough.

Warsh has been a vocal critic of the central banking system, calling for what he described as a “regime change” and arguing that inflation risks had not been taken seriously enough. However, his reputation as a policy hawk—typically associated with higher interest rates—appears to contrast with Trump’s preference for lower rates, creating some uncertainty over the direction of future monetary policy.

Executive moves of the week: Pepperstone, IG, and Crypto.com

Pepperstone appointed Reed Sayer as its new Head of UK, where he will be responsible for leading growth strategy, managing client relationships, and supporting the company’s expansion in the region.

At IG Group, Chief Operating Officer Jody Dunn will step down later this year after nearly 24 years with the company. Her departure marks the end of a long tenure that saw her rise from the sales desk to one of the firm’s most senior operational roles.

Meanwhile, Crypto.com executive Karl Mohan left the exchange after almost five years. He most recently served as Executive Vice President of Financial Services and General Manager International.