Prediction Markets Top $50B Monthly Volume. Will It Last Beyond the World Cup?

Prediction markets surpassed $50 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time in June, with activity jumping 75% from May, according to Artemis data.

The milestone coincided with the FIFA World Cup, making June as much a test of event-driven demand as a new market record. Kalshi remained the largest venue, recording roughly $33 billion in monthly volume.

Polymarket processed $14 billion combined across its international platform and its recently launched US-regulated exchange. Rothera, the Robinhood-backed venue, added roughly $2 billion.

A World Cup or a New Baseline?

The World Cup, which began on June 11, has been the industry's largest liquidity event to date. Kalshi alone processed $7.4 billion in World Cup trades during the tournament, more than its entire March Madness volume.

Polymarket's World Cup trades accounted for about $6.4 billion, compared with just $138,000 during the 2022 World Cup.

The June volumes also showed that prediction market infrastructure can support sustained trading activity around a single global event.

Whether that reflects a permanent shift in market structure is less clear, as the World Cup is an exceptional catalyst that naturally concentrates liquidity into a short period.

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At the same time, user data suggests the World Cup may not be the whole story. A Bitget Wallet study of 857,000 active Polymarket users found that 60% had no prior onchain trading history, suggesting the prediction markets are attracting audiences beyond traditional crypto traders.

This activity would not necessarily unwind once the tournament ends.

What Brokers Should Watch

The June figures function as a stress test: the industry has demonstrated it can attract institutional-scale liquidity when a global event captures public attention.

If trading activity remains elevated after the World Cup ends, June may prove to be the beginning of a new baseline rather than a spike driven by a single sporting event.