Saxo Bank has released its ten 'Outrageous Predictions' again, this time for 2023. As the name suggests, the predictions are pretty 'outrageous': it predicted the resignation of the French President, the skyrocketing of Gold prices to $3,000, an 'UnBrexit' referendum in the UK, and fixing USDJPY at 200, among others.
Saxo Bank 2023 Predictions
"The provocative publication has never been about being right – it has always been about being outrageous. Still, sometimes the world catches up and becomes just the right amount of outrageous for the predictions to become true," Saxo's Senior Investment Editor, Søren Otto Simonsen, stated.
The timing and accuracy might not be on point, but some of Saxo's past predictions came to be true. From the skyrocketing Bitcoin price to the Brexit referendum, Saxo had put the ball in the proper court. Its prediction last year on the shift from fossil fuel "came into fruition, but it was regrettably fueled even further by the unforeseen invasion of Ukraine by Russia."
All ten predictions for 2023 are macroeconomic. But, some of them might directly and significantly impact the retail trading industry. In addition, the others will influence the trading markets as they can create volatility in the world economy.
Check out the recent London Summit interview with the UK CEO of Saxo Bank, Charlie White Thomson.
Saxo Bank Predicts USDJPY Floor at 200 in 2023
One of Saxo's direct FX-related predictions is that the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance would "declare a floor on the JPY at 200 in USDJPY." The policy might come as a "temporary action of unknown duration" to allow a reset of the Japanese financial system.
"That reset includes the BoJ moving to explicitly monetize all its debt holdings, erasing them from existence. QE with monetization is extended to further lower the burden of Japan's public debt, but with a pre-set taper plan over the next 18 months," wrote John Hardy, the Head of FX Strategy.
"The move puts the public debt on course to fall to 100 percent of GDP at the end of the BoJ operations, less than half its starting point. The BoJ policy rate is then hiked to 1.00 percent, and all yield-curve control is lifted, which allows the 10-year rate to jump to 2.00 percent."
Is UnBrexit Possible? Saxo Bank Weighs In
Another outrageous prediction is the possibility of the UK holding an UnBrexit referendum. Saxo got its earlier prediction on Brexit right eventually, so now it is to be seen how accurate it will be on this one.
The prediction is fueled by the political leadership tensions in the United Kingdom and the "depressing fiscal austerity via tax hikes and spending cuts" by the Rishi Sunak-Jeremy Hunt duo. This might lead to public outrage in the country and put the Labour party in power.
"A Labour government takes power in Q3, promising an UnBrexit referendum for November 1, 2023. The ReJoin vote wins," predicts Saxo's Market Analyst, Jessica Amir.
If such things happen, it will redefine the EU (including the UK) financial markets. An FCA license holder could again passport their license to operate in the rest of the European Economic Area (EEA) and vice versa, which is a rule that will directly affect the FX/CFDs retail brokerage industry.
Saxo Bank Predicts Gold at $3000
The world is battling inflation, and this crisis provided the base for Saxo's next outrageous prediction: "Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate."
Gold prices corrected after surpassing the $2,000 mark earlier this year. However, the demand for precious metals is still high with the inflation-battered economy. A rising gold price is imminent if the global central banks fail to control inflation with effective policies, but will it touch $3,000?
"2023 is the year that the market finally discovers that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future," predicted Ole Hansen, the Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo, adding that "the hardest of currencies receives a further blast of support from three directions:" geopolitical backdrop of an increasing war economy mentality, the massive investment in new national security priorities, and rising global liquidity.
"Gold slices through the double top near USD 2,075 as if it wasn't there and hurtles to at least USD 3,000 next year," Hansen added.
Outrageous, but Sometimes Realistic? Simply Saxo Bank
Saxo might be too outrageous sometimes with its predictions, but it also has a record of getting some of them right. And, with the ongoing economic and political tensions, nothing can be ruled out completely.
