Kalshi
The US Prediction-Markets Fight Just Split Into Two Opposite Lawsuits. Plus500 Sits In The Middle
- U.S. regulators are split on prediction markets, treating the same product as either derivatives or gambling, and pushing the issue into courts.
- Plus500 has positioned itself as a broker and infrastructure provider across both models, gaining exposure to the sector’s growth.
Thursday, 30/04/2026 | 15:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Are We All Pigeons? The Hidden Psychology Behind Prediction Markets
- Gambling and prediction markets rely on simple, repetitive interactions that trigger dopamine responses.
- When the probability of an outcome is uncertain, the brain releases significantly more dopamine.
Wednesday, 29/04/2026 | 08:44 GMT by
Sylwester Majewski
Inside the Prediction Markets: Candidates Bet on Themselves as Platforms Push Into Perpetual Futures
- A senator presses the CFTC on how disputed bets are defined and resolved, highlighting gaps in current oversight.
- Platforms tighten rules while moving into crypto derivatives, expanding beyond event contracts.
Friday, 24/04/2026 | 17:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Fines Political Candidates to Demonstrate Enforcement Standards
- Kalshi fined and suspended candidates who bet on their own races, enforcing its insider trading rules in public.
- The move supports its positioning with regulators and institutions as a platform with active compliance controls.
Thursday, 23/04/2026 | 09:52 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi and Polymarket Move Into Perpetual Futures, Taking On Offshore Exchanges
- Both platforms are launching perpetual futures, extending beyond event contracts into the core crypto derivatives market.
- The move positions them against offshore exchanges, but raises questions about liquidity, pricing, and execution.
Wednesday, 22/04/2026 | 13:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Expands Data Distribution With ProCap Research Deal
- ProCap will use a direct Kalshi data feed and AI tools to generate investment insights from prediction markets.
- The deal is part of a broader push to distribute market data beyond trading and build a research layer around it.
Tuesday, 21/04/2026 | 21:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Market Lobbying Spend Rises Over 60% as Regulatory Pressure Builds in Washington
- Industry lobbying spend hit a record in Q1, driven by both prediction platforms and sports betting incumbents.
- The surge reflects how much depends on regulatory outcomes, including whether these markets remain accessible under derivatives rules.
Tuesday, 21/04/2026 | 11:27 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Courts Weigh State Crackdown as Trading Hits $6.5B
- Courts weigh whether states can block prediction markets as the CFTC asserts federal authority.
- Trading hits $6.5B while platforms narrow offerings and expand infrastructure.
Friday, 17/04/2026 | 09:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Build Washington Presence as Legislative Pressure Mounts
- Kalshi and Polymarket are scaling up lobbying operations, adding staff, offices and industry groups in Washington.
- The build-out comes as Congress advances multiple bills that could reshape core products such as sports contracts.
Thursday, 16/04/2026 | 17:07 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Says its Edge Comes from Retail Traders but the Picture is More Complex
- Research suggests prediction markets can match traditional forecasts, but the source of that accuracy is debated.
- As automation and professional traders enter the market, the retail-driven edge may narrow.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 16:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
A Tech Layoff 'Fear Gauge': Niche Prediction Market Becomes a Leading Economic Indicator
- The contract assigns an 83% probability to higher tech layoffs, drawing over $30M in trading volume.
- Traders are using the market as a real-time signal on AI-driven workforce changes and corporate cost cuts.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 14:24 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Sells Prediction Market Data to Fox, Expanding Beyond Trading
- The partnership distributes real-time probability data across Fox’s broadcast and streaming platforms.
- For Kalshi, licensing data creates a revenue stream that does not depend on trading activity.
Wednesday, 08/04/2026 | 12:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: $1.6B Institutional Inflow Meets a Federal Crackdown
- The CFTC names insider trading a priority as ICE closes its Polymarket investment and Kalshi wins margin approval.
- Enforcement tightens while capital and activity continue to grow across prediction markets.
Friday, 03/04/2026 | 12:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Launches Ad Campaign in Washington D.C. but Not Everyone Is Buying It
- The campaign targets policymakers and regulators, aiming to separate Kalshi from offshore platforms.
- While the message stresses compliance, doubts remain over how insider trading rules can be enforced in practice.
Tuesday, 31/03/2026 | 12:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Pushes Prediction Markets Into Derivatives Territory With Margin Plans
- Margin would let institutions trade event contracts with less upfront capital, improving capital efficiency.
- The feature is not yet live and will initially be limited, with approval and liquidity remaining key constraints.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 13:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Analysts Say $200 Oil Is Possible - Prediction Markets Show It’s Not Probable
- Analysts model how prices could react under disruption, while markets assign probabilities to those scenarios.
- Event contracts imply that even severe supply shocks are not currently seen as the central outcome.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 10:57 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
ARK and Kalshi Test Prediction Markets as a Research Tool
- ARK will create custom event contracts to track macro trends, company metrics and scientific milestones.
- Early data suggests predictive value, but signal quality depends on liquidity and market structure.
Friday, 27/03/2026 | 11:04 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
FIS Adds Clearing for Prediction Market Contracts, Building on OTC Trading
- Institutions can now execute, custody and clear prediction contracts without relying on retail platforms.
- The setup links OTC trading with clearing infrastructure, but liquidity and regulation remain uneven.
Tuesday, 24/03/2026 | 17:33 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Rival CEOs Back New Fund Focused on Prediction Market Infrastructure
- The fund will back market makers, data providers and trading tools needed for institutional participation.
- Rising funding, bank interest and regulatory alignment point to a growing ecosystem around prediction markets.
Tuesday, 24/03/2026 | 11:28 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Defies U.S. Legal Tussle and Nevada Temporary Ban as Valuation Doubles to $22B
- The prediction markets is facing charges from Arizona’s attorney general accusing it of illegal gambling.
- Courts in Ohio have also sided with state regulators who argue Kalshi’s markets is unlicensed gambling.
Friday, 20/03/2026 | 18:51 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Inside the Prediction Markets: Starting to Play by the Rules
- Zero-fee trading, new rules, and state actions show prediction markets are starting to operate like real markets.
- As regulators tighten oversight and liquidity concentrates, institutions are still watching — but not trading.
Friday, 20/03/2026 | 14:32 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Funds Are Watching Prediction Markets But Not Using Them Yet, Report Finds
- Funds are testing prediction market data in arbitrage and macro signals, not as a core trading input.
- Fragmented data and integration challenges are slowing institutional use despite growing attention.
Thursday, 19/03/2026 | 09:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Platform Kalshi Charged in Arizona Over Unlicensed Gambling Activities
- Kalshi recently sued Iowa, Utah, and Arizona to block state enforcement of gambling laws.
- CFTC has criticized states for suing prediction markets, saying it solely has jurisdiction over these markets
Tuesday, 17/03/2026 | 18:52 GMT by
Jared Kirui
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