Kalshi
Kalish vs. Kalshi: The Fight Over Who Really Wins in Prediction Markets
- DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish accused Kalshi of routing retail order flow toward professional market makers through an exchange structure that favors institutional liquidity providers.
- The dispute has intensified broader questions around slippage, market-maker concentration, and whether prediction markets function more like financial exchanges or sportsbooks.
Tuesday, 19/05/2026 | 17:01 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Market Giants Defy India Ban in High-Stakes Global Expansion Play
- Kalshi and Polymarket continue operating in India despite a federal ban and explicit warnings from the country’s technology ministry.
- The situation highlights a growing gap between U.S. regulatory legitimacy and legal acceptance in overseas markets such as India and Brazil.
Monday, 18/05/2026 | 14:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Interactive Brokers Starts “Trading the Future” as SEC Stalls ETF Plans
- Polymarket’s trading activity declined for the first time in eight months as the platform rolled out a major infrastructure overhaul.
- Regulators are still divided on whether prediction markets should be treated as financial derivatives or gambling products, even as institutional adoption accelerates.
Friday, 15/05/2026 | 14:12 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Raises $1B as Regulatory Tensions Escalate
- Flutter confirmed it is already generating revenue from prediction markets through market-making and liquidity provision rather than retail exchange operations.
- The CFTC’s latest review process exposed a growing divide between firms treating event contracts as financial derivatives and critics who see them as gambling products.
Friday, 08/05/2026 | 11:41 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Surges to $22 Billion as Wall Street Scoops Up Crypto Talent
- Crypto-native firms reportedly face a weaker job market, with postings down about 25% and ongoing layoffs.
- Kalshi reportedly represents over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity and holds a majority share globally.
Thursday, 07/05/2026 | 18:43 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Kalshi’s Legal Argument Tested as Courts Probe ‘Swap’ Classification
- Massachusetts justices questioned whether federal derivatives law can override state gambling rules in Kalshi’s case.
- The outcome could determine whether prediction markets operate under federal oversight or face state-by-state regulation.
Tuesday, 05/05/2026 | 10:06 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Reviews Reporting Rules as Prediction Markets Enter Commodities
- Kalshi limits trading hours on agricultural contracts as the CFTC reviews reporting requirements.
- Prediction platforms entering commodities face the same transparency rules as traditional exchanges.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 22:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Insider Case Triggers Push to Ban Core Trading
- Lawmakers are targeting sports contracts as this segment drives most of the market’s volume.
- As Congress tightens its stance, platforms face pressure on both core products and enforcement credibility.
Friday, 01/05/2026 | 12:14 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The US Prediction-Markets Fight Just Split Into Two Opposite Lawsuits. Plus500 Sits In The Middle
- U.S. regulators are split on prediction markets, treating the same product as either derivatives or gambling, and pushing the issue into courts.
- Plus500 has positioned itself as a broker and infrastructure provider across both models, gaining exposure to the sector’s growth.
Thursday, 30/04/2026 | 15:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Are We All Pigeons? The Hidden Psychology Behind Prediction Markets
- Gambling and prediction markets rely on simple, repetitive interactions that trigger dopamine responses.
- When the probability of an outcome is uncertain, the brain releases significantly more dopamine.
Wednesday, 29/04/2026 | 08:44 GMT by
Sylwester Majewski
Inside the Prediction Markets: Candidates Bet on Themselves as Platforms Push Into Perpetual Futures
- A senator presses the CFTC on how disputed bets are defined and resolved, highlighting gaps in current oversight.
- Platforms tighten rules while moving into crypto derivatives, expanding beyond event contracts.
Friday, 24/04/2026 | 17:15 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Fines Political Candidates to Demonstrate Enforcement Standards
- Kalshi fined and suspended candidates who bet on their own races, enforcing its insider trading rules in public.
- The move supports its positioning with regulators and institutions as a platform with active compliance controls.
Thursday, 23/04/2026 | 09:52 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi and Polymarket Move Into Perpetual Futures, Taking On Offshore Exchanges
- Both platforms are launching perpetual futures, extending beyond event contracts into the core crypto derivatives market.
- The move positions them against offshore exchanges, but raises questions about liquidity, pricing, and execution.
Wednesday, 22/04/2026 | 13:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Expands Data Distribution With ProCap Research Deal
- ProCap will use a direct Kalshi data feed and AI tools to generate investment insights from prediction markets.
- The deal is part of a broader push to distribute market data beyond trading and build a research layer around it.
Tuesday, 21/04/2026 | 21:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Market Lobbying Spend Rises Over 60% as Regulatory Pressure Builds in Washington
- Industry lobbying spend hit a record in Q1, driven by both prediction platforms and sports betting incumbents.
- The surge reflects how much depends on regulatory outcomes, including whether these markets remain accessible under derivatives rules.
Tuesday, 21/04/2026 | 11:27 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: Courts Weigh State Crackdown as Trading Hits $6.5B
- Courts weigh whether states can block prediction markets as the CFTC asserts federal authority.
- Trading hits $6.5B while platforms narrow offerings and expand infrastructure.
Friday, 17/04/2026 | 09:43 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Build Washington Presence as Legislative Pressure Mounts
- Kalshi and Polymarket are scaling up lobbying operations, adding staff, offices and industry groups in Washington.
- The build-out comes as Congress advances multiple bills that could reshape core products such as sports contracts.
Thursday, 16/04/2026 | 17:07 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Says its Edge Comes from Retail Traders but the Picture is More Complex
- Research suggests prediction markets can match traditional forecasts, but the source of that accuracy is debated.
- As automation and professional traders enter the market, the retail-driven edge may narrow.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 16:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
A Tech Layoff 'Fear Gauge': Niche Prediction Market Becomes a Leading Economic Indicator
- The contract assigns an 83% probability to higher tech layoffs, drawing over $30M in trading volume.
- Traders are using the market as a real-time signal on AI-driven workforce changes and corporate cost cuts.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 14:24 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Sells Prediction Market Data to Fox, Expanding Beyond Trading
- The partnership distributes real-time probability data across Fox’s broadcast and streaming platforms.
- For Kalshi, licensing data creates a revenue stream that does not depend on trading activity.
Wednesday, 08/04/2026 | 12:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: $1.6B Institutional Inflow Meets a Federal Crackdown
- The CFTC names insider trading a priority as ICE closes its Polymarket investment and Kalshi wins margin approval.
- Enforcement tightens while capital and activity continue to grow across prediction markets.
Friday, 03/04/2026 | 12:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Launches Ad Campaign in Washington D.C. but Not Everyone Is Buying It
- The campaign targets policymakers and regulators, aiming to separate Kalshi from offshore platforms.
- While the message stresses compliance, doubts remain over how insider trading rules can be enforced in practice.
Tuesday, 31/03/2026 | 12:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Pushes Prediction Markets Into Derivatives Territory With Margin Plans
- Margin would let institutions trade event contracts with less upfront capital, improving capital efficiency.
- The feature is not yet live and will initially be limited, with approval and liquidity remaining key constraints.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 13:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Analysts Say $200 Oil Is Possible - Prediction Markets Show It’s Not Probable
- Analysts model how prices could react under disruption, while markets assign probabilities to those scenarios.
- Event contracts imply that even severe supply shocks are not currently seen as the central outcome.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 10:57 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
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