Prediction Markets Are Attracting Users Who Never Become Traders

Kalshi surpassed $10 billion in weekly notional volume for the first time, the platform confirmed this week. The record came during the FIFA World Cup, and the user data behind it tells a more interesting story than the headline number.

A 90-day study of 857,000 active Polymarket users by Bitget Wallet found that 60% had no prior onchain trading history. Once on the platform, most users stayed there, averaging around 1,194 prediction market interactions over the period compared with just 12 DEX trades.

JUST IN: @Kalshi surpasses $10B in Weekly Notional Volume for the first time ever pic.twitter.com/TvBV6lPGJ1

— KalshiData (@kalshidata) June 28, 2026

Rather than acting as a gateway into crypto trading, prediction markets are becoming a destination in their own right. The World Cup demonstrated how quickly that audience can scale around major live events.

Kalshi processed $2.9 billion in World Cup trades within the tournament's first eleven days - more than its entire March Madness volume. Polymarket's football markets surpassed $5 billion, compared with just $138,000 in World Cup trading during the 2022 tournament.

From User Growth to Revenue

For exchanges, trading volume is only part of the story. Kalshi has topped $2 billion in annualised revenue, putting it within range of far older financial platforms.

Kalshi has topped $2 billion in annualized revenue, putting it within striking distance of far older finance companies.

But its $22 billion valuation depends on whether investors see it as a brokerage, exchange or betting app.

Read more in our Finance newsletter:…

— The Information (@theinformation) June 28, 2026

Polymarket says its annualised revenue has surpassed $1 billion just six weeks after opening access to its US exchange, according to CNBC. Citizens Bank projects the sector will reach $10 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

Coinbase says it is seeing the same behavioural pattern. According to Toni Gemayel, Head of Prediction Markets, only about 1% of users engage with prediction markets the way they would with any other asset class. The remaining 99%, he said, use them "almost as an alternative to traditional media or entertainment."

• Inside Prediction Markets: Lawsuits Mount as New Products and Partnerships Keep Coming
• Google Trends Shows How FIFA World Cup 2026 Sponsorship Turbocharges Prediction Markets
• Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Hits $100B as Questions Keep Piling Up

Those revenues are being generated by a user base that often has little interest in broader crypto trading, and that creates a business tied to real-world events rather than crypto market cycles. Elections, policy decisions, and global sporting tournaments continue to generate user activity even when digital asset markets are subdued.

Whether that holds depends partly on whether event-driven engagement survives the absence of a major catalyst. The tournament ends. The question is what the 60% of users with no trading history do next.