Owning exchange infrastructure is becoming a common strategy across prediction markets. Platforms that initially relied on third-party venues are increasingly bringing matching, clearing, and regulatory licences in-house, according to a new note from Bernstein.
Infrastructure Is Moving In-House
DraftKings became the latest company to make that shift with the launch of DKeX, its proprietary prediction markets exchange, integrated into the DraftKings Sports & Casino app.
DKeX is built on the CFTC licence and technology DraftKings acquired through Railbird. It gives the company direct control over the exchange infrastructure behind its prediction markets offering, rather than relying on third-party venues.
Boston based DraftKings just launched its own prediction markets exchange, DKeX.
— Only In Boston (@OnlyInBOS) June 29, 2026
The new platform is built directly into the DraftKings app and comes as its Predictions product has grown to an estimated $3.4 billion in annualized consumer volume.
Robinhood and Susquehanna rebranded MIAXdx as Rothera and began routing high-volume contracts, including World Cup markets, through their own venue rather than Kalshi, which had previously handled that flow. Robinhood has traded more than 16 billion event contracts year-to-date in 2026, against 12 billion for all of 2025.
Coinbase took a similar route, launching event contracts before acquiring The Clearing Company to bring clearing in-house, and reached roughly $100 million in annualised prediction-market revenue within two months of launch.
The common thread across all three: each previously paid someone else for exchange access and is now capturing that margin internally. Distribution without owned matching and clearing infrastructure increasingly looks like a rented position rather than a defensible one.
A Market Is about to Get a Lot Bigger
The race to own infrastructure makes more sense against the scale Bernstein expects the underlying market to reach. Analyst Gautam Chhugani projects total prediction-market volumes will hit $240 billion in 2026, a 370% jump from last year, and sees the market compounding at roughly 80% annually through 2030, reaching $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade.
He attributes the growth to expected federal regulatory clarity and to blockchain tokenisation improving liquidity.
The composition of that volume is also expected to shift. Sports contracts account for more than 60% of trading today, but Chhugani sees that share roughly halving by 2030 as institutional flow builds around economic, business, and political contracts.
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Distribution Versus Infrastructure
Bernstein frames the market around a clear split. On one side are scale players such as Robinhood, Coinbase and DraftKings. They have massive consumer distribution, brand recognition and acquisition channels, but they did not historically own the exchange pipes needed to support prediction-market activity at scale.
On the other side are pure-play venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket. They have regulated infrastructure, early liquidity and stronger product focus, but they cannot match the consumer reach of the larger platforms. That imbalance is likely to shape the next wave of deals.
Pure-play exchanges may become acquirers in some cases, but they are also obvious targets for companies that want regulated infrastructure without building it from scratch.
Part of a Wider Pattern
The same logic is visible beyond prediction markets. Kraken has been moving more clearing and payments infrastructure in-house, while Plus500 has positioned itself across both futures and event-contract routes in the US.
Prediction markets are now following the same pattern: as volumes grow, control over exchange, clearing and distribution infrastructure is becoming part of the product strategy rather than a back-office detail.
