This week, Interactive Brokers integrated contracts from Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx into a single trading platform for retail and institutional clients. At the same time, the SEC slowed down a wave of prediction market ETFs, while the CFTC eased reporting requirements for operators.
Here’s what mattered this week.
Interactive Brokers Brings Prediction Markets Into Its Trading Stack
On May 14, Interactive Brokers launched a prediction markets platform combining contracts from Kalshi, CME Group, and its own ForecastEx exchange.
The system allows retail and institutional clients to trade contracts tied to economics, climate, and political events from a single interface, with pricing displayed across venues side by side.
Kalshi x Interactive Brokers
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) May 14, 2026
One of the largest brokers in the world.
Casual, sophisticated, and institutional investors can now trade the future.
All in one place. pic.twitter.com/yM2S4mksU9
The move pushes prediction markets deeper into traditional brokerage infrastructure. Rather than operating as standalone platforms, event contracts are increasingly being integrated alongside existing trading products and execution systems.
Interactive Brokers said sports and entertainment contracts are not part of the initial rollout.
Kalshi Extends Its Lead as Polymarket Volume Slips
Polymarket’s trading activity declined in April for the first time in eight months, while Kalshi continued to gain ground in the U.S. market.
According to Dune Analytics data compiled by @datadashboards, Polymarket’s monthly notional volume fell about 9% to $10.3 billion. Over the same period, Kalshi’s volume rose 13% to $14.8 billion.
Polymarket attributed the slowdown to a major infrastructure overhaul rolled out at the end of April after months of trading delays, failed transactions, and postponed product releases. The platform also introduced trading fees across most markets in late March, a change that may have contributed to lower activity.
A company spokesperson told Bloomberg that the upgrade is intended to improve execution speed and reliability. “Over the coming weeks, we are shipping a series of updates that will make trading faster and smoother than ever — reducing delays and delivering the biggest speed improvement in Polymarket’s history,” the spokesperson said.
Meanwhile, Kalshi’s institutional expansion has continued to accelerate following its $1 billion funding round earlier this month.
CFTC Eases Reporting Requirements for Prediction Markets
On May 13, the CFTC issued a no-action letter relieving prediction market operators from certain swap data reporting requirements tied to fully collateralized event contracts. Previously, companies had to seek this relief individually. The new letter creates a single framework that other operators can join.
The change lowers compliance costs for prediction market platforms and gives the industry a more standardized regulatory setup while broader rulemaking is still being developed.
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SEC Slows Down Prediction Market ETFs
The SEC delayed the launch of 24 prediction market ETFs this week, pausing products filed by Roundhill Investments, Bitwise, and GraniteShares. The funds would have given retail investors exposure to event contracts tied to elections, economic data, and other real-world outcomes through a standard ETF structure.
Under SEC rules, the filings were approaching automatic approval deadlines before the agency intervened. ETF analysts said the delay was likely procedural rather than a rejection, comparing it to the early regulatory path of spot bitcoin ETFs.
But the SEC’s hesitation reflects broader concerns around market manipulation, insider trading, and whether prediction market infrastructure is mature enough for mainstream investment products. The delay matters because prediction markets are already moving toward institutional finance.
Quote of the Week
On May 12, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig gave a rare interview to Axios in which he drew a direct line between prediction markets and financial derivatives — and away from sports betting. Selig is the sole current member of the typically five-member commission, appointed by Trump, and his classification of these products as financial instruments carries direct regulatory weight.
"They represent different frameworks. Standard sportsbooks and casinos provide entertainment and possess considerable power to exclude winners. In derivative markets, that is not permissible. If you keep winning? Fantastic. You retain your profits. What we are witnessing is a distinction between markets and entertainment."
Bottom Line
This week showed prediction markets moving closer to the structure of traditional financial markets. Interactive Brokers integrated event contracts into its brokerage infrastructure.
The CFTC reduced reporting friction for operators. ETF issuers moved closer to bringing prediction markets into retail investment accounts, even as the SEC slowed the process down for additional review. At the same time, the debate over what these products actually are remains unresolved.
Industry participants continue to frame prediction markets as financial derivatives tied to hedging and price discovery. Critics still view them as gambling products operating under a financial label. The infrastructure is moving faster than the classification debate around it.
