Independent Prediction Markets Converged on Nearly Identical World Cup Probabilities as Trading Hit Record Highs

Despite operating separate order books, liquidity pools and user bases, Polymarket and Kalshi priced Spain’s chances of winning the World Cup at almost exactly the same probability ahead of Sunday’s final.

Polymarket priced Spain at roughly a 59% chance of lifting the trophy before kickoff, while Argentina traded near 40%. Kalshi’s market independently arrived at virtually the same assessment, pricing Spain at 59,6% and Argentina at 40.4%.

Different Markets, Identical Probabilities

The close alignment offered a rare illustration of how independent prediction markets with separate liquidity pools and user bases can arrive at similar probability estimates through trading alone.

That alignment emerged during the largest sporting event in prediction market history, with Polymarket’s World Cup Winner contract processing $4.28 billion in volume and Kalshi’s equivalent market another $1.29 billion.

The scale of trading makes the similarity in pricing particularly notable, even though the result of a single football match cannot determine whether those probabilities were perfectly calibrated.

• Inside the prediction markets: Malta Drafts Rules as Blockchain.com and Jump Trading Expand Their Reach
• Jump Trading Expands Prediction Markets Team as “Cultural Alpha” Becomes Part of the Quant Stack
• Malta Tried This with Crypto. Now It’s Trying Again with Prediction Markets

Although the two markets reached nearly identical probabilities, trader positioning looked rather different. While traders often chased value on the underdog rather than backing the favourite, resulting in more capital flowing toward Argentina despite Spain’s higher implied probability, both platforms ultimately reflected nearly identical market expectations before the match.

No Widespread Profits

Blockchain analyst defioasis.eth examined more than 194,000 Polymarket wallets and found that roughly two-thirds ended the tournament with losses. Only five wallets generated profits exceeding $1 million, while the overwhelming majority of both gains and losses remained under $100.

世界杯已告一段落，再次恭喜西班牙，不知道哪位小伙伴成功押中

在统计的 Polymarket 预测世界杯冠军归属市场的超过 19.4 万个独立交易地址中

亏损方面：
- 接近 13 万个地址预测错误实现亏损，亏损占比约 66.7%
- 大多数参与者的亏损幅度并不大，11.4 万个地址亏损在 100 美元以内，平均亏损不到 10… pic.twitter.com/z3kKImxnlZ

— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026

One notable casualty was an Argentina supporter who lost a $1.23 million position in the final after previously sitting on more than $5 million in unrealized profit.

The record trading volumes were significant, but they were also largely expected. The tournament offered one of the clearest large-scale demonstrations yet of how prediction markets aggregate information through independent trading.