Nvidia (NVDA) stock hit a record high yesterday (Monday) and closed up 2.1% at $238.90. Buyers stepped in after a weak US jobs report cut bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
The close took Nvidia out of the box it had traded in since its May peak, and the stock traded near $241 before the opening bell. My daily chart reads that as a breakout, with Fibonacci projections pointing to about $262 first and $307 if the move extends.
London's trading industry is coming home!
Why Is Nvidia Stock Going Up?
US payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September and unemployment edged up to 4.2%. The previous two months were revised down by a combined 60,000.
Traders took that as a reason for the Fed to hold off on another hike this month, and LMAX Group said in its Monday note that equities entered the week supported by softer Fed hike expectations.
- Nvidia’s Q3 Bombshell: Vast Revenue, Stock Up, AI Safe
- Nvidia’s Earnings: Can It Blow the AI Bubble Back Up?
- NVIDIA and Nokia Stocks Surge After AI Giant Makes $1B Investment
Nvidia led the megacap gains. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9% to a record close of 31,076 points, and Nvidia's intraday market value reached about $5.78 trillion, according to Yahoo Finance.
The company gave the stock its own reason to rise on September 28, when it lifted its buyback authorization by $150 billion, leaving $235 billion available, as BNN Bloomberg reported. The shares closed at $228.86 that day, a week before Monday's record.
How High Can Nvidia Stock Go?
Nvidia peaked at $236.51 in May and then failed to close above that level for almost five months. The deepest pullback, in late July, stopped at $189.66, right on the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Since August, the 50-day EMA has held every dip toward $210.
Monday's session was the first daily close above the $233.37 to $236.51 resistance band. I measured the Fibonacci extension of the April to May rally, which started near $164, and projected it from the July low.
The 100% extension, where the second leg matches the first, sits at $262.24, about 10% above Monday's close. The 161.8% extension points to $307.08, roughly 29% higher.
When I looked at Nvidia's targets in May 2025, the stock had closed at $134 and Jefferies and Bernstein had $185 targets on it. Monday's close is 78% above that $134 level and 29% above those targets.
| Scenario | Confirmation | Target | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout holds | Daily closes above $236.51, then a weekly close above it on Friday | $262.24, then $307.08 | Daily close below $233.37 |
| Failed breakout | Daily close back below $233.37 | Return to the range, 50-day EMA near $220 | Recovery above $236.51 |
| Deeper pullback | Daily close below $208.07 | July low at $189.66, 200-day EMA near $203 | Recovery above $210.12 |
Is the Nasdaq Also at a Record High?
Yes. The Nasdaq 100 cash index broke above its June peak, a resistance band between 30,681.7 and 30,764.8 points, and traded at 31,206.8 on IG this morning.
That former ceiling, about 1.7% below the current price, is now the first support on my chart. The 50-day EMA sits lower, at 29,896.1.
What Could Stop the Nvidia Rally?
Bonds. The US 10-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25%, and Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, pointed to the gap between the two markets in a note on Monday, writing about the selloff in European debt.
"It is remarkable how calm stocks have been in the face of the recent bond market distress," Brooks wrote.
The next test comes on Wednesday. Madhur Kakkar, founder and CEO of Elevate Financial Services, flagged the minutes of the September Fed meeting and the 10-year Treasury auction that day as signals for the Fed's policy outlook and for demand for US government debt.
For my breakout call, the line is $233.37. A daily close back below it would put Nvidia back inside the range it spent five months in, with the 50-day EMA near $220 as the next test.
