Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Expands Perpetuals as World Cup Trading Hits New Highs

Prediction markets continue to expand into new products, new distribution channels, and new regulatory frameworks. This week brought developments across all three.

Kalshi Looks Beyond Crypto Perpetuals

Kalshi is preparing to expand its perpetual futures business beyond crypto, discussing contracts tied to foreign exchange, metals, and energy with regulators.

According to Reuters, the exchange has processed $16.1 billion in perpetual futures volume since launching the products in May. The CFTC is also seeking public comment on extending perpetual futures to energy commodities.

The move comes as CME continues challenging the CFTC’s decision to allow Kalshi and Coinbase to offer perpetual futures. This week, Jenner & Block withdrew from representing CME because of a conflict of interest, with former CFTC enforcement chief Aitan Goelman taking over the case.

CME's counsel Jenner & Block recently due to "positional conflicts with other firm clients". Fmr CFTC Enforcement Dir. Aitan Goelman is now representing CME in the litigation. I know nothing about this, but swapping counsel at this stage due to conflicts is v unusual. /1

— Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos (@kkirkbos) July 8, 2026

New York Hands Kalshi a Court Setback

On July 7, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction blocking New York from enforcing its gambling laws against the platform’s sports-event contracts.

Kalshi immediately appealed to the Second Circuit, arguing that its contracts fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. New York maintains that sports-event contracts remain subject to state gambling law despite the platform’s federal registration.

The ruling leaves the underlying dispute unresolved, but allows New York to continue enforcing its gambling laws while the appeal proceeds.

• Inside the Prediction Markets: Europe Closes Ranks as Wall Street Builds New Products
• Prediction Markets Top $50B Monthly Volume. Will It Last Beyond the World Cup?
• Owning the Exchange Is Becoming the New Competitive Advantage in Prediction Markets

One World Cup Match Generates $460 Million

Prediction markets processed roughly $460 million in trading volume on the Mexico–England World Cup match, according to data reported by Covers.

Kalshi accounted for approximately $401–402 million of that activity, while Polymarket handled about $57.7 million. Around $177 million traded before kickoff and roughly $225 million during live play on Kalshi.

The figures underline the scale of trading that major sporting events can generate across prediction market platforms.

Bottom Line

The World Cup has pushed prediction market activity to new highs. Whether trading volumes remain at similar levels after the tournament ends will be one of the sector’s first meaningful tests.

Another question is regulatory. New York’s case against Kalshi is moving into the appeals process while the company continues expanding into products traditionally associated with derivatives exchanges. How those two developments evolve will help determine the next stage of the industry’s growth.