BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 28th April 2014

As feared, Bitcoin’s support at 444 just wasn’t able to hold, and consequently price today has fallen down to 420.

As feared, Bitcoin’s support at 444 just wasn’t able to hold, and consequently price today has fallen down to 420.

This was yesterday’s BTC/USD H4 chart, note the support marked in white at 50% (444).

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btcusdh4_27_04_2014

Where I expressed my doubts,

“Right now, price is hovering just above 50%, marked in white… a word of caution, this could be a temporary pause in market movement, since usually we’d have the Bollinger Bands squeezing and converging, but this is not happening right now, in fact they’re still heading south. We may see this change over the next 24 hours, but for now, I’m still not comfortable with that support.”

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Very soon after, price actually broke 50%, as we can see by way if the current BTC/USD H4 chart below (click to expand):

btcusdh4_28_04_2014_1

Managing to reach just below 61.8%, marked in blue. However, we’ll need to zoom in and apply a shorter term Fibonacci study to understand the current dynamics, in this case, from the high of yesterday at 455, until today’s low at 412.

btcusdh4_28_04_2014_2

It becomes apparent that the new 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level could become an important resistance here at 430 (marked in red), I don’t see enough bullish strength to push above here, and we also have the Stochastics heading down, and the Awesome Oscillator as red. In fact, we may see re-test of today’s low later on.

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