President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind the prediction market industry, framing the CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority over the sector as a matter of national economic interest.
Trump posted his comments on Truth Social, entering a live jurisdictional dispute between federal and state regulators at the most visible level possible.
By describing prediction markets as a "major industry" the U.S. must lead to retain its position as the "Crypto Capital of the World," the president has handed the sector, and the financial firms watching it, a degree of political support it hasn't had before.
"It is critically important that the CFTC's exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive," Trump posted. "Under my leadership, we are setting 'rules of the road' that are the Gold Standard for the States."
A Challenge to State Authority
The statement is a direct response at a coalition of Democratic state officials pushing to shut down or tax the sector. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed legislation that would make operating a prediction market a criminal felony. New York AG Letitia James and counterparts in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Connecticut have filed lawsuits against Coinbase, Gemini, Kalshi, and Robinhood.
Trump's framing treats those moves as interference with federal prerogative. He has signaled that the administration will continue to support the CFTC’s position in ongoing disputes with states.
"We cannot have [state officials] setting the rules," he wrote, arguing that fragmented state regulation would hand a competitive edge to foreign markets.
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What it Means for Brokers and Exchanges
The comments also matter for brokers and exchanges evaluating prediction markets under the current federal framework.
Trump’s comments strengthen the argument that a CFTC license can protect prediction market platforms from state-level gambling claims, potentially reducing some of the legal uncertainty for traditional brokers.
The relationship between prediction markets and Trump’s broader political and business orbit has also become closer. Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser in 2025, while Polymarket later secured investment from Trump Jr.-backed venture firm 1789 Capital.
Trump Media has separately explored prediction market products tied to Truth Social through partnerships with Crypto.com.
Trump’s earlier comments on prediction markets have been more mixed. In April, he compared insider trading on prediction platforms to the Pete Rose betting scandal and described the broader economy as “somewhat of a casino” — language that reinforced the gambling framing the industry has spent years trying to avoid.
