Morgan Stanley raises its oil price forecasts, citing heightened geopolitical risk.
This morning, Israel killed two successors to Hezbollah's slain leader.
Geopolitical
tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to experience their
strongest gains since March 2023. This week, prices tested two-month highs. Analysts believe that if the conflict escalates, the upward trend may continue.
Notably,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that airstrikes killed two
successors to Hezbollah's slain leader. The country is expanding its offensive
against the Iran-backed group, with ground operations extending into southern
Lebanon.
Will Oil Prices Return to $100 per Barrel?
Although
projections of oil prices jumping back to the psychological barrier of $100 per
barrel, last seen in 2022, currently seem distant, analysts are beginning to
raise their forecasts for the end of this year.
Morgan
Stanley recently raised its Brent price forecast for Q4 2024 to $80 per barrel
from $75, citing heightened geopolitical risks. Brent crude prices have already
tested such high levels this week, while US WTI crude has so far stopped at around
$78.
Morgan Stanley raised its Brent value forecast to $80 a barrel (from $75) for This autumn 2024https://t.co/0hejq852Z3
Morgan Stanley has bumped its forecast for Brent crude oil in the final quarter of 2024 to $80 / Barrel up from its previous forecast of $75 MS cite heighten... pic.twitter.com/gBiI328fzf
However, Tuesday's session brought a temporary easing of sentiment in the oil market, as
concerns about the Middle East conflict outweighed stronger worries about
global demand.
Oil Prices
Fell over 4% on Tuesday
Brent crude
futures fell 4.2% to $78.25 a barrel, while US WTI crude dropped 4.1% to $74.80
per barrel. The decline comes after both benchmarks surged nearly 9% last week.
The retreat
in oil prices reflects a complex interplay of factors influencing the market.
While heightened tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about
potential supply disruptions, these fears have been tempered by the absence of
actual production interruptions thus far.
Crude oil prices. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
“Oil
can keep ascending only for so long purely based on perceptions and not actual
supply disruption,” noted analysts at oil brokerage PMV. “The
geopolitical risk premium has an obscure and unforeseeable expiry date.”
Adding to
the downward pressure, China's return from its Golden Week holiday brought
disappointment as authorities refrained from announcing new economic stimulus
measures. This has reignited worries about oil demand in the world's
second-largest economy.
“Without
policy support, an economic slowdown could keep China's oil demand subdued in
the short to medium term,” Warren Patterson from ING added.
The fact
that the war premium in the oil market disappeared one day doesn't mean it
won't reappear the next, especially since it doesn't look like we're
approaching any resolution to the conflict.
Israel
Claims Elimination of Hezbollah Leader's Successors
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced today (Wednesday) that airstrikes
had killed two successors to Hezbollah's recently slain leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, as Israel intensified its ground offensive in southern Lebanon.
“We've
degraded Hezbollah's capabilities. We took out thousands of terrorists,
including Nasrallah himself and Nasrallah's replacement, and the replacement of
the replacement,” Netanyahu declared in a video statement. However, the
prime minister did not identify the alleged successors by name.
Israeli
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested that Hashem Safieddine, widely
considered Nasrallah's likely successor, had “probably been
eliminated.” Military spokesman Daniel Hagari later stated that
Safieddine's status was being verified after an airstrike on Hezbollah's
intelligence headquarters last week.
BREAKING: It's just been confirmed that Hashem Sadieddine, Nasrallah’s successor and soon-to-be leader of Hezbollah, was killed in last week’s strike in Beirut.
While the world is busy vilifying Israel, Israel is busy protecting the world against the real terror and people who… pic.twitter.com/OGG5QRiNBE
The claims
come as Israel deployed a fourth army division into southern Lebanon, expanding
its ground operations against Hezbollah. The Israeli military reported that
airstrikes over the past 24 hours had killed at least 50 Hezbollah fighters,
including six sector commanders and regional officials.
The
conflict has escalated dramatically in recent weeks. Israel bombed
Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah launched
rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities, including Haifa.
As the
violence intensifies, concerns are growing about a wider regional conflict.
Iran, a key backer of both Hezbollah and Hamas, has warned Israel against
retaliatory strikes on Iranian territory following recent missile exchanges.
The ongoing
hostilities have resulted in over 1,000 deaths in Lebanon and displaced more
than a million people in the past two weeks. Israel maintains that its
objective is to secure its northern border and allow the return of thousands of
displaced residents.
Geopolitical
tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to experience their
strongest gains since March 2023. This week, prices tested two-month highs. Analysts believe that if the conflict escalates, the upward trend may continue.
Notably,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that airstrikes killed two
successors to Hezbollah's slain leader. The country is expanding its offensive
against the Iran-backed group, with ground operations extending into southern
Lebanon.
Will Oil Prices Return to $100 per Barrel?
Although
projections of oil prices jumping back to the psychological barrier of $100 per
barrel, last seen in 2022, currently seem distant, analysts are beginning to
raise their forecasts for the end of this year.
Morgan
Stanley recently raised its Brent price forecast for Q4 2024 to $80 per barrel
from $75, citing heightened geopolitical risks. Brent crude prices have already
tested such high levels this week, while US WTI crude has so far stopped at around
$78.
Morgan Stanley raised its Brent value forecast to $80 a barrel (from $75) for This autumn 2024https://t.co/0hejq852Z3
Morgan Stanley has bumped its forecast for Brent crude oil in the final quarter of 2024 to $80 / Barrel up from its previous forecast of $75 MS cite heighten... pic.twitter.com/gBiI328fzf
However, Tuesday's session brought a temporary easing of sentiment in the oil market, as
concerns about the Middle East conflict outweighed stronger worries about
global demand.
Oil Prices
Fell over 4% on Tuesday
Brent crude
futures fell 4.2% to $78.25 a barrel, while US WTI crude dropped 4.1% to $74.80
per barrel. The decline comes after both benchmarks surged nearly 9% last week.
The retreat
in oil prices reflects a complex interplay of factors influencing the market.
While heightened tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about
potential supply disruptions, these fears have been tempered by the absence of
actual production interruptions thus far.
Crude oil prices. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
“Oil
can keep ascending only for so long purely based on perceptions and not actual
supply disruption,” noted analysts at oil brokerage PMV. “The
geopolitical risk premium has an obscure and unforeseeable expiry date.”
Adding to
the downward pressure, China's return from its Golden Week holiday brought
disappointment as authorities refrained from announcing new economic stimulus
measures. This has reignited worries about oil demand in the world's
second-largest economy.
“Without
policy support, an economic slowdown could keep China's oil demand subdued in
the short to medium term,” Warren Patterson from ING added.
The fact
that the war premium in the oil market disappeared one day doesn't mean it
won't reappear the next, especially since it doesn't look like we're
approaching any resolution to the conflict.
Israel
Claims Elimination of Hezbollah Leader's Successors
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced today (Wednesday) that airstrikes
had killed two successors to Hezbollah's recently slain leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, as Israel intensified its ground offensive in southern Lebanon.
“We've
degraded Hezbollah's capabilities. We took out thousands of terrorists,
including Nasrallah himself and Nasrallah's replacement, and the replacement of
the replacement,” Netanyahu declared in a video statement. However, the
prime minister did not identify the alleged successors by name.
Israeli
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested that Hashem Safieddine, widely
considered Nasrallah's likely successor, had “probably been
eliminated.” Military spokesman Daniel Hagari later stated that
Safieddine's status was being verified after an airstrike on Hezbollah's
intelligence headquarters last week.
BREAKING: It's just been confirmed that Hashem Sadieddine, Nasrallah’s successor and soon-to-be leader of Hezbollah, was killed in last week’s strike in Beirut.
While the world is busy vilifying Israel, Israel is busy protecting the world against the real terror and people who… pic.twitter.com/OGG5QRiNBE
The claims
come as Israel deployed a fourth army division into southern Lebanon, expanding
its ground operations against Hezbollah. The Israeli military reported that
airstrikes over the past 24 hours had killed at least 50 Hezbollah fighters,
including six sector commanders and regional officials.
The
conflict has escalated dramatically in recent weeks. Israel bombed
Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah launched
rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities, including Haifa.
As the
violence intensifies, concerns are growing about a wider regional conflict.
Iran, a key backer of both Hezbollah and Hamas, has warned Israel against
retaliatory strikes on Iranian territory following recent missile exchanges.
The ongoing
hostilities have resulted in over 1,000 deaths in Lebanon and displaced more
than a million people in the past two weeks. Israel maintains that its
objective is to secure its northern border and allow the return of thousands of
displaced residents.
Damian's adventure with financial markets began at the Cracow University of Economics, where he obtained his MA in finance and accounting. Starting from the retail trader perspective, he collaborated with brokerage houses and financial portals in Poland as an independent editor and content manager. His adventure with Finance Magnates began in 2016, where he is working as a business intelligence analyst.
Will XRP Go Up? This New Price Forecasts Show If XRP Can Reach $10
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Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
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Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
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Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
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We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
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We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
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We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
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We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
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We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
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We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
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Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
