Bitcoin (BTC) price is falling for the fourth straight session, and the chart is sending increasingly bearish signals. BTC tumbled below $63,000 on Tuesday, February 24, extending a decline that has now lasted four sessions without relief. The intraday low reached $62,964, the weakest print in nearly three weeks.
According to my technical analysis and over a decade of experience as an analyst and trader, Bitcoin is consolidating at its lowest levels since Q4 2024, and the structure of that consolidation looks fragile. In this article, I examine why Bitcoin is going down, analyze the BTC chart in detail, and present the newest Bitcoin price predictions and key technical levels to watch.
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Bitcoin Price Today: Back Below $63,000
Monday's 4%+ drop - the steepest single-day decline since February 5 - set the tone, and Tuesday's follow-through has done nothing to reassure bulls.
The broader damage is stark. From its all-time high of over $125,000 per token set in October 2025, Bitcoin has now shed approximately 50% of its value. VanEck's research desk noted that Bitcoin is currently trading -2.88 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average - a level that has never been observed in the past ten years of data, including during COVID and the FTX collapse.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: What the BTC Chart Shows
According to my technical analysis, Bitcoin is increasingly and visibly consolidating at the lowest levels since Q4 2024. As shown on my chart, this consolidation has a well-defined structure:
- Consolidation floor: $60,000-$62,000 - where psychological support and recent lows converge
- Consolidation ceiling: $72,000-$74,000 - the upper cap that has capped every recovery attempt
- Critical breakdown target: $53,000, and potentially as low as $49,000 - the H2 2024 lows
A weekly close below the $60,000-$62,000 band would, in my view, confirm a breakdown from this consolidation. From there, the next meaningful demand zone does not appear until the $49,000-$53,000 range, where the second half of 2024 set its structural lows. That represents a further 15-22% decline from current levels.
Looking higher, the bulls need to reclaim $72,000-$74,000 on a sustained basis to even begin talking about recovery. Until that happens, every bounce is a selling opportunity in a bear-trending structure.
One important context point: despite the depth of this drawdown, VanEck's analysis shows that 90-day realized volatility currently sits near 38 - roughly half the levels seen during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell 78% peak to trough. This is not yet a panic-driven capitulation. It is, so far, an orderly - if painful - deleveraging.
Why Is Bitcoin Going Down? The Macro Trigger Stack
There is no single cause here. Bitcoin is being hit from multiple directions simultaneously.
The immediate trigger is the ongoing Trump tariff chaos. Following the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling last week, Trump imposed new 15% global tariffs via executive order, reintroducing trade policy uncertainty just as markets had begun to stabilize. Risk-off sentiment spilled directly from equities into crypto.
"Crypto markets remain under pressure into Tuesday, with Bitcoin extending its pullback toward the February low," said Joel Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX. As he added: "The negative tone reflects a combination of macro-driven risk aversion, ongoing deleveraging, and defensive positioning - including elevated sovereign yields, a firm US dollar, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty."
The second major pressure point is geopolitical. The US-Iran military buildup - described by multiple sources as the largest since the 2003 Iraq War - is driving a classic flight from risk assets toward traditional safe havens. Gold and oil are rising. Bitcoin is not.
"Bitcoin has officially exited its consolidation phase and entered a new bearish cycle," said Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com. "This toxic cocktail of economic, political, and geopolitical shocks is aggressively flushing capital out of the crypto market - leaving significant room for bears to dominate."
The mechanics of the selloff have amplified the fundamental picture:
- $240 million in forced liquidations of leveraged long positions on Monday alone
- Continued ETF outflows, with institutional demand insufficient to absorb selling
- Whale selling - on-chain data shows large holders moving significant BTC to exchanges
- AI stock correlation - as AI and HPC stocks corrected, Bitcoin miners with data center exposure sold BTC to cover balance sheet stress
"The decline in Bitcoin appears less like a specific shock to the cryptocurrency and more akin to a typical reset in risk sentiment," said Christopher Hamilton, Head of Client Investment Solutions APAC at Invesco. He described the move as "tactical de-risking rather than a long-term withdrawal."
How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Key Levels and Predictions
This is the question every trader is asking right now - and the honest answer is that the range of outcomes remains wide.
Level | Significance |
$63,000 | Current price zone, 3-week low |
$60,000 | Psychological floor, consolidation bottom |
$53,000 | First breakdown target (H2 2024 structure) |
$49,000 | Deeper H2 2024 lows - full breakdown scenario |
$38,000-$42,000 | 200 EMA zone - major long-term trend support |
Institutional forecasters remain divided. On the bearish side, the breakdown of the $60,000-$62,000 zone would technically open the $49,000-$53,000 window. On the cautiously optimistic side, VanEck notes that the combination of a deep drawdown and materially lower-than-historical volatility "suggests that a significant portion of downside risk has already been absorbed."
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The key variable is macro resolution. If US-Iran tensions de-escalate or tariff uncertainty clears, the relief trade could be sharp. But as Hasn of XS.com noted, "buyers are currently surfacing only for short-lived corrective bounces" - not the sustained demand needed to flip the structure.
Bitcoin Price, FAQ
Why is Bitcoin falling today?
Bitcoin is going down due to a combination of Trump's 15% global tariff announcement, escalating US-Iran military tensions, $240M+ in forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, and continued ETF outflows. Risk-off sentiment is driving capital into traditional safe havens like gold rather than crypto.
How low can Bitcoin go in 2026?
Based on my technical analysis, the critical level is the $60,000-$62,000 consolidation floor. A weekly close below that zone opens a technical target of $53,000 and potentially $49,000 - the H2 2024 structural lows. The 200 EMA sits near $38,000-$42,000 and represents the deepest bear case support.
Is Bitcoin in a bear market?
Bitcoin is now down approximately 50% from its October 2025 all-time high above $125,000, which meets the traditional definition of a bear market. VanEck data shows realized volatility at roughly half 2022 bear market levels, suggesting an orderly deleveraging rather than full capitulation.
When will Bitcoin stop falling?
The chart requires a sustained reclaim of $72,000-$74,000 - the top of the current consolidation range - to signal any meaningful trend reversal. Until that happens, the path of least resistance remains lower. Macro clarity on US-Iran tensions and tariff policy would be the most likely catalysts for a stabilization.
