The prediction-market sector is manoeuvring between an escalating legal war of attrition and commercial euphoria.
While state courts pushed their enforcement perimeter beyond retail apps and straight into clearing, platforms continued to print record volume with the CFTC playing the surreal dual role of industry protector and internal prosecutor.
Louisiana Extends Restrictions to Brokers and Clearers
On November 12, a Louisiana court ordered ten prediction-market operators to block users in the state, including Kalshi, Polymarket US and Robinhood. The court order goes beyond the apps: the operators may not broker, clear or settle event contracts for anyone in Louisiana.
Meanwhile, new platforms continue entering the market via partnerships. A Canadian sports prediction-market company, Prospect Markets, launched in the US as an introducing broker on Crypto.com’s infrastructure.
A day earlier, Underdog, which runs its own CFTC-registered exchange, agreed to make its contracts available through Plaee, whose clients will be able to offer those contracts under their own brands without registering as an exchange.
Crypto.com and Underdog are both among the operators named in Louisiana’s order.
The CFTC Is Fighting a Two-Front War
The CFTC continue fighting the states in court. On November 12, the agency and the United States sued Arkansas to stop its case against Kalshi. They argue that the contracts fall under federal derivatives law.
The same agency is also scrutinising Kalshi. Politico and Reuters reported that the CFTC had privately warned Kalshi it could face charges over how it notified the agency of new contracts.
Kalshi told CNBC the issue was a procedural error involving a handful of contracts, many of which were not live.
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Kalshi Eyes $65B Valuation Leap
DeFi Rate recorded about $30.4 billion in notional volume across nine venues for November 7–12, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 78% of that volume.
At the same time, the platform is discussing new funding at a $65 billion valuation, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on November 12. That would be $25 billion more than the $40 billion post-money valuation of its Series G two weeks earlier.
Polymarket reported revenue growth and job cuts in the same week. On November 10, it told CNBC that its annualised revenue had passed $1.8 billion, up from more than $1 billion in June. That figure is the company’s own run rate, not full-year revenue.
The next day, it confirmed that it had cut jobs and ended contractor agreements. It said the reorganisation followed leadership changes and also included new hires.
