Political contracts generated $901 million in September across four prediction-market platforms, a small share of a record trading month even as the US midterm elections approached.
Sports, crypto, and multi-event contracts drove much more activity, offering trading opportunities beyond election cycles. Those three categories accounted for 94% of September’s $75.5 billion in nominal volume, according to Prediction Frontier’s third-quarter report.
The research covers Kalshi, Polymarket’s international and US venues, and Novig. The monthly record coincided with the start of the NFL and college football seasons.
Short Contracts Create Repeat Trading Opportunities
Sports provide a continuing calendar of matches, while short-duration crypto contracts let traders take positions on repeated price movements.
Kalshi, for example, offers contracts on whether cryptocurrency prices rise or fall over 15-minute windows. Prediction markets traders can redeploy proceeds after each position settles rather than wait for a distant election result.
Combos work differently. They combine several outcomes into one position, similar to a sportsbook parlay, and some trade for only a few cents. Kalshi offers them across sports and other event categories, so combos should not automatically be counted as sports trading.
Their low prices also affect reported scale. A contract with a maximum $1 payout contributes $1 to nominal volume even if the buyer pays only a few cents. Cheap combos can therefore produce substantial headline turnover from relatively small purchases.
- Plaee Plugs Into Underdog, and Operators Skip the CFTC Queue
- The $120 Billion Mirage: Penny Combos Inflated Prediction Market Volumes in Q3
- DraftKings Raises Predictions Investment to $650M–$700M as DKeX Gross Take Rate Reaches 11.1%
Kalshi’s Lead Looks Different in Dollars Paid
Kalshi combos alone generated $34.2 billion in September nominal volume. Kalshi’s share rose from 69% in July to 73% in August and September, although Novig enters the dataset only from August 4.
Over the same period, Kalshi’s average purchase price per $1 contract fell from 32 cents to 24 cents. The report attributes that decline to combos; Polymarket’s average remained around 50 cents.
The falling purchase price means each dollar spent generated more nominal volume. Politics still mattered to individual venues: Polymarket US handled more than half of September’s political trading.
Across the four platforms, however, sports, crypto and combos supplied 94% of the nominal volume behind the monthly record. The industry reached that high before the final weeks of the midterm campaign, without an election-driven surge.
