XTB could report net profit of around PLN 190 million (USD 49.4 million) for the third quarter, according to Mateusz Chrzanowski, an analyst at Noble Securities, who also expects the Polish-listed broker (WSE: XTB) to have attracted roughly 200,000 new clients during the period.

XTB Client Additions Expected to Hit 200,000 in Third Quarter

The forecast comes ahead of XTB's preliminary Q3 results, expected this week, and falls between widely divergent analyst predictions. Some brokerages see net profit as low as PLN 80 million, while others put it at PLN 156 million.

Chrzanowski, who spoke with Parkiet.com, projects quarterly revenue of about PLN 545 million, representing a 10 percent sequential decline. He expects the period to show the weakest revenue per lot since Q3 2023, though he notes this metric wasn't particularly strong in the second quarter either.

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“While I was skeptical about the previous quarter's results, I now see fewer risks than colleagues at other brokerages,” Chrzanowski said during an interview last week. “There won't be a negative impact from currency differences, unlike last quarter.”

Nasdaq Gains and Gold Rally Offset Volatility

The analyst pointed to steady upward movement in the Nasdaq index during the quarter and sharp gains in gold prices during September as potential contributors to XTB's performance. He estimates costs will come in around PLN 150 million.

On client acquisition, Chrzanowski bases his 200,000 forecast on XTB's disclosure that it added 121,000 clients through August 25. July was weak, but August improved, and data from Poland's Central Securities Depository showed September account openings matching August levels.

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The analyst expects client acquisition Acquisition Acquisition means acquiring or taking possession or the securing of property, services, or abilities. To put it simply, it is the act or process of acquiring or gaining. You can acquire a work of art, you can acquire an ability such as speaking another language, you can acquire a business or shares in a company and you can acquire an accountant's service. For example, you can acquire a new car. In a broad sense, Acquisition can mean the act of taking ownership or possession of something. There Acquisition means acquiring or taking possession or the securing of property, services, or abilities. To put it simply, it is the act or process of acquiring or gaining. You can acquire a work of art, you can acquire an ability such as speaking another language, you can acquire a business or shares in a company and you can acquire an accountant's service. For example, you can acquire a new car. In a broad sense, Acquisition can mean the act of taking ownership or possession of something. There Read this Term costs to remain close to the company's typical average per new customer. He noted that a large marketing campaign announced by XTB with Zlatan Ibrahimović will likely impact fourth-quarter costs rather than third-quarter figures.

Cybersecurity Issues Haven't Dented Growth

Recent cyberattacks on customer accounts and platform outages haven't significantly changed the investment case, according to Chrzanowski. He acknowledged that repeated incidents could erode trust, but said XTB's technology investments should reduce the frequency of such problems.

“The entire sector faces cyber risk. In XTB's case, it resonated loudly because the company is highly recognizable,” he said. “But we also can't forget that in this case, there were also oversights on the part of clients.”

Platform issues affect the industry broadly, not just XTB, Chrzanowski added.

At the current share price of around PLN 68, the stock appears somewhat depressed, he said. If his Q3 forecast proves accurate, it would essentially fulfill the full-year projection, likely requiring an upward revision. Full-year net profit could reach PLN 700 million, compared to Noble Securities' previous target based on PLN 600 million, which implied a share price of PLN 76.

Geographic Expansion Beats New Products

Looking ahead, Chrzanowski sees international expansion as a bigger driver than new product launches. XTB plans to introduce options and physical cryptocurrency trading, but the analyst doesn't view these as transformative.

“Most revenue is generated from the CFD market, and that's where the client base needs to grow,” he said. “To do that, you need to enter new markets, especially since the most important markets for XTB appear to be saturated.”

The company is pushing deeper into Western Europe and awaiting updates on Indonesia. Recent improvements in Latin American margins also signal progress. Management has indicated optimism about opportunities in non-European markets.

XTB has already launched equities and exchange-traded funds in Indonesia and plans to add CFD instruments there in late 2025 or 2026. The company is also pursuing a license in Brazil, expected to be completed this year.

The broker ended the second quarter with over 1.7 million total clients and more than 812,000 active clients. It reported net deposits of PLN 3.1 billion in Q2, down from PLN 4.1 billion in the first quarter.

For its cryptocurrency plans, XTB is seeking a MiCA license and developing the necessary legal documents and technological changes to its platform. The company is awaiting approval from Poland's Financial Supervision Authority for its options pricing model.