Prediction markets are increasingly being integrated into larger trading ecosystems, but according to Coinbase, most users are not approaching them as a traditional asset class at all.
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In this interview, Toni Gemayel, Head of Prediction Markets at Coinbase, discusses why the company entered the segment, how prediction markets fit into Coinbase’s broader “Everything Exchange” strategy, why the platform partnered with Kalshi, and why many users engage with these products more like media or entertainment than trading.
Why Coinbase Entered Prediction Markets
Coinbase has been expanding beyond crypto into a broader multi-asset platform built around an “Everything Exchange” approach, and prediction markets appear to fit naturally into that strategy.
“People want to invest their capital across all asset types, and lately that includes information,” Gemayel explained. “Prediction markets drove tens of billions of dollars in volume in 2025 alone, and they’ve become powerful truth signals, often more reliable than polls or expert opinion.”
Coinbase launched its prediction markets product in partnership with CFTC-regulated platform Kalshi. According to Gemayel, starting with a federally regulated partner provided a strong foundation in terms of trust and compliance, while also allowing users to access a broad range of event contracts from day one.
At the same time, Coinbase is investing in building internal expertise around prediction markets. “We plan to expand beyond Kalshi to support contracts from additional platforms in the coming months,” he said.
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Prediction Markets Inside the “Everything Exchange”
Once prediction markets are integrated into a broader ecosystem, they stop functioning as purely standalone products and begin overlapping with other trading instruments.
According to Gemayel, this crossover is intentional. Users can manage prediction market positions alongside crypto, equities, and cash balances within a single interface.
That changes the experience compared to using a standalone prediction markets platform and encourages what Gemayel describes as “portfolio-level thinking,” where users hedge, diversify, and express views across multiple asset classes in one place.
At the same time, Coinbase is seeing a very different pattern of user engagement around prediction markets compared to traditional trading products.
“As our CEO Brian Armstrong has noted, about 1% of users are trading prediction markets the same way they’d trade any other asset class,” Gemayel said. “But for the other 99%, they’re engaging with it almost as an alternative to traditional media or entertainment.”
As Gemayel explains, many users are less interested in trading itself and more interested in understanding what markets collectively think about elections, policy decisions, or major events. That dynamic, he argues, is bringing entirely new audiences onto the platform, including users who may not think of themselves as traders at all.
What Still Prevents Mainstream Adoption
According to Gemayel, prediction markets are well positioned to become a mainstream part of trading platforms, but regulatory fragmentation and user experience remain two of the biggest obstacles.
“Inconsistent enforcement across states and regional jurisdictions has created undue friction, but prediction markets are national exchanges registered with the CFTC, and we continue to fight for our customers’ rights to access them regardless of where they live in America,” he said.
Gemayel also pointed to user experience as a major obstacle, arguing that prediction markets still require simpler and more intuitive onboarding for mainstream users.
