BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 21st March 2014

Analysis provided by Ashton Fraser, learn more about his trading strategies with the forex reversal indicator. Bitcoin has been up

Analysis provided by Ashton Fraser, learn more about his trading strategies with the forex reversal indicator.

Bitcoin has been up and down this morning, applying some technical analysis to this seemingly crazy move sheds some light.

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Let’s take a closer look at the BTC/USD M30 chart below:

btcusdm30_21_03_2014

I’ve performed the Fibonacci study from the last major swing high on M30 on the 19th at 625, to the low at 575, just before this yo-yo move began.

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Now, we can see how from the 19th of this month, there’s been a clear downtrend, very smooth. Remember, this is the M30 timeframe, so for there to be barely any retraces during the downtrend, shows how firm the move was. We can see this by way of the middle Bollinger band, with its southern trajectory.

However, by 3am GMT today, there was signs that a retrace was on the way.

Take a look at the candle marked in a blue ellipse. We can see how it surpassed the lower Bollinger band, with it’s lower wick taking up around half of the actual candlestick. Then, within the next three candles, that low was tested again, giving further credence to some support. On the very next candle, we had an amalgamation of technicals which helped confirmed the retrace. The Accelerator Oscillator and Awesome Oscillators had turned green, plus the Stochastics had by now crossed upwards whilst being in an underbought/oversold position.

Price then rose quickly to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to the very pip at 606, marked in red. And, if we look at this candle which tested 61.8%, we’ll also realise the Accelerator Oscillator closed as red. A huge sign that this Fibonacci level could hold firmly. And hold it did – with price subsequently rocketing down, indeed – going below the previous low, to make a new low at 561. Right now, it’s doubtful whether this will hold for much longer.

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