BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 11th April 2014

Bitcoin drops to 340, as the fallout of the continued bad news, which we discussed over the past few days

Bitcoin drops to 340, as the fallout of the continued bad news, which we discussed over the past few days primarily emanating from China regarding the uncertainty of the crypto-currency’s future, rears its head, albeit there’s been some recovery this morning.

Let’s take a look at the latest BTC/USD chart on the hourly timeframe (click below to expand):

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btcusdh1_11_04_2014

I’ve performed the Fibonacci study from the swing high at 455, until the current low at 342.

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I want to focus on this morning’s recovery, because despite the strength of the bears, there were some reversal signs which a savvy trader would have been able to spot.

Take a look at the candle marked in blue, we can see how this candle’s lower wick was relatively long, whilst being below the lower Bollinger band, eventually closing as a bull candle. At the same time, the Accelerator Oscillator had just turned green. But it’s what happened on the next candle where there was a confirmation of a retrace, since we also had the Awesome Oscillator turn green, in addition to the Stochastics crossing upwards from an oversold position, marked in white.

Price then retraced all the way to the 61.8% Fib level at 411, to the exact pip, unable to break it, before heading back down to the 38.2% Fib.

Right now Bitcoin is hovering around the 50% Fib, and I expect it to test the 61.8% Fib level again very soon, although with the Stochastics now in oversold territory, I’m note sure it’d break 61.8% quite yet.

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