Bitcoin (BTC) is hanging in there but one gets the feeling that the recovery has lost steam and that it is sitting in a vulnerable position.
It is currently trading at $471 on BTC-e. It dipped to $465 twice within the past 24h, during which it has not gotten its head above $480. A slight staggered downtrend has formed over the past 60h; we are seeing successively lower peaks and troughs.
The $470-480 support range, earlier noted for its importance in maintaining stability, has mostly eroded. As such, BTC may be signalling a break from its 15% offset from the 200-day moving average. This offset had also offered support from a momentum perspective. If broken, there isn’t much historical support above $450.
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If a genuine turnaround is to take place, a prolonged bottoming in the $470-490 range must first materialize and continue for 1-2 weeks.
The spread between BTC-e and Bitstamp has widened, perhaps a return to “back to normal” trading conditions. The difference between the two is about $4, or 0.85%. Volume is low, about 100 BTC per hour, which has become the new norm during flat trade.