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Why the Global Oil Glut Might Not Fill Swimming Pools After All
Why the Global Oil Glut Might Not Fill Swimming Pools After All
by
Bloomberg News
One of the warning lights that there’s too much oil around is no longer flashing, adding to signs that...
One of the warning lights that there’s too much oil around is no longer flashing, adding to signs that global crude markets are finally on the mend.
Just a month ago, oil traders were weighing up whether to park unwanted crude aboard tankers while BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley joked that swimming pools might be needed to hold the excess. Yet instead of offering bumper profits, as in previous market gluts, stockpiling barrels on ships would result in a financial loss, just as it has done for the past six months, in a sign the current surplus may not be as big as feared.
Declining U.S. oil production coupled with disruptions in OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria have helped revive crude to $40 a barrel, leading the International Energy Agency to conclude that the worst of the rout is over. Contrary to expectations that tankers would be needed, onshore storage hasn’t been exhausted, according to Torbjoern Kjus, an analyst at DNA ASA in Oslo.
“There’s less going into floating storage rather than more in the past few months,” Kjus said. “Fundamentals are gradually improving. The worst of the price rout was just sentiment.”
A crude trader would lose about $7.6 million if they wanted to park 2 million barrels at sea for six months, more than double the loss they would have swallowed in February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. and oil futures exchanges.
Yet the economics also give an insight into the oil market itself. Storing crude at sea becomes profitable when the spread between the current price and longer-term ones, known as contango, is wide enough to cover the cost of hiring a tanker.
The gap between first and seven-month futures narrowed to $2.30 a barrel on Friday, the lowest level since July, down from $5.07 a barrel on Jan. 29. It’s simply “nowhere near” enough to cover the cost, Ted Petrone, vice chairman of tanker operator Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. said on March 3.
It’s a distinct shift from the market conditions prevalent a month ago, when Chris Bake, a senior executive at Vitol Group, said that with primary storage sites “pretty much full,” it was “probably a good time to be a vessel owner.”
The biggest change between now and a month ago is oil supply that’s been unexpectedly curbed. One pipeline linking the the northern part of Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea halted in mid-February, while another from Nigeria was hit by sabotage. U.S. oil production is threatening to drop below 9 million barrels a day for the first time since November 2014.
From those three locations alone, combined output was restricted by about 1 million barrels a day compared with a month earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s about half the global surplus. Since then, flow from Iraq’s
Trading houses including Vitol, Koch Supply & Trading LP and Glencore Plc, plus the in-house trading arms of BP and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, collectively made billions of dollars from 2008 to 2009 stockpiling crude at sea. At the peak of the floating storage spree, sheltered anchorages in the North Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Singapore Strait and off South Africa each hosted dozens of supertankers.
The receding risk that storage tanks will overflow encouraged Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in its view that the worst for oil prices is over.
“Your probability of having a containment issue, of blowing out storage, is starting to decline,” Jeff Currie, New York-based head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net, Bill Lehane in London at blehane@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net, James Herron
One of the warning lights that there’s too much oil around is no longer flashing, adding to signs that global crude markets are finally on the mend.
Just a month ago, oil traders were weighing up whether to park unwanted crude aboard tankers while BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley joked that swimming pools might be needed to hold the excess. Yet instead of offering bumper profits, as in previous market gluts, stockpiling barrels on ships would result in a financial loss, just as it has done for the past six months, in a sign the current surplus may not be as big as feared.
Declining U.S. oil production coupled with disruptions in OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria have helped revive crude to $40 a barrel, leading the International Energy Agency to conclude that the worst of the rout is over. Contrary to expectations that tankers would be needed, onshore storage hasn’t been exhausted, according to Torbjoern Kjus, an analyst at DNA ASA in Oslo.
“There’s less going into floating storage rather than more in the past few months,” Kjus said. “Fundamentals are gradually improving. The worst of the price rout was just sentiment.”
A crude trader would lose about $7.6 million if they wanted to park 2 million barrels at sea for six months, more than double the loss they would have swallowed in February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. and oil futures exchanges.
Yet the economics also give an insight into the oil market itself. Storing crude at sea becomes profitable when the spread between the current price and longer-term ones, known as contango, is wide enough to cover the cost of hiring a tanker.
The gap between first and seven-month futures narrowed to $2.30 a barrel on Friday, the lowest level since July, down from $5.07 a barrel on Jan. 29. It’s simply “nowhere near” enough to cover the cost, Ted Petrone, vice chairman of tanker operator Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. said on March 3.
It’s a distinct shift from the market conditions prevalent a month ago, when Chris Bake, a senior executive at Vitol Group, said that with primary storage sites “pretty much full,” it was “probably a good time to be a vessel owner.”
The biggest change between now and a month ago is oil supply that’s been unexpectedly curbed. One pipeline linking the the northern part of Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea halted in mid-February, while another from Nigeria was hit by sabotage. U.S. oil production is threatening to drop below 9 million barrels a day for the first time since November 2014.
From those three locations alone, combined output was restricted by about 1 million barrels a day compared with a month earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s about half the global surplus. Since then, flow from Iraq’s
Trading houses including Vitol, Koch Supply & Trading LP and Glencore Plc, plus the in-house trading arms of BP and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, collectively made billions of dollars from 2008 to 2009 stockpiling crude at sea. At the peak of the floating storage spree, sheltered anchorages in the North Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Singapore Strait and off South Africa each hosted dozens of supertankers.
The receding risk that storage tanks will overflow encouraged Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in its view that the worst for oil prices is over.
“Your probability of having a containment issue, of blowing out storage, is starting to decline,” Jeff Currie, New York-based head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net, Bill Lehane in London at blehane@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net, James Herron
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔