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Indian Paradox: As Economy Soars Modi Reforms Face Big Headwinds
Indian Paradox: As Economy Soars Modi Reforms Face Big Headwinds
by
Bloomberg News
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept into power in 2014, he did so with an ambitious mandate to reboot...
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept into power in 2014, he did so with an ambitious mandate to reboot the economy, stamp out corruption and lure foreign investment by streamlining the country’s convoluted regulatory regime.
The leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party won the election by the biggest margin in three decades, and it all seemed to herald a new era for Asia’s third-biggest economy.
Now, approaching his second anniversary as premier, Modi’s reform ambitions are far from realized. On the plus side, India has eclipsed China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy with gross domestic product projected to expand 7.6 percent in the fiscal year through March. Slumping oil prices have helped bring down inflation, improve corporate margins and shore up the current and fiscal accounts.
"The most important international step Modi has taken for the Indian economy has been his strong signal that India is open for international business," said Alyssa Ayres, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Red tape is being cut. India’s ranking has improved in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index, and an Ernst & Young survey found that more than twice as many senior global executives picked India over China as their top investment destination over the next three years.
At the same time, other key aspects of Modinomics have come up short. He has shied away from a promise to make it easier to acquire land and the opposition Congress party has repeatedly blocked a goods-and-services tax aimed at creating a single market among India’s 1.3 billion people. His government also kept in place powers to retroactively tax companies -- a headache for foreign investors -- and shelved efforts to make labor laws more flexible.
Exports remain weak and bad loans rose to a 14-year high by the end of September, presenting a potential drag on growth as company profits have lagged the pace of economic expansion.
State Elections
While a poll published last month put his approval rating at an enviable 58 percent, Modi suffered a big setback in November when he lost key elections in the third-most populous, politically-strategic and low-income state of Bihar, prompting him to focus more on boosting farmer incomes in his latest budget. State elections are crucial to his bigger goal of controlling the upper house of parliament, where opposition forces have united to block proposed reforms.
"Mr. Modi’s government has failed to use favorable domestic and external circumstances as a springboard for much-needed fundamental reforms to boost productivity and long-term growth," said Eswar Prasad, a former chief of the IMF’s China Division and now a professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.
The IMF recently warned that any slowdown in the reform process would hurt growth, fuel inflation and weigh on consumer and investor sentiment. And like China, economists question the veracity of the nation’s economic data.
"How quarterly GDP growth can be over 7 percent year on year, with manufacturing apparently rising by 12 percent when high frequency data show low single-digit industrial production growth, a large double-digit decline in exports, a very-low capacity utilization rate, and ever-declining earnings growth, we frankly don’t know," said Taimur Baig, Asia chief economist at Deutsche Bank AG based in Singapore.
Religious Tensions
Then there are tensions over religion, caste and free speech that some analysts blame on Modi’s strongman approach to governing. "The opposition has consistently found ways to derail its most controversial efforts, but the government too deserves its fair share of blame," said Milan Vaishnav, Senior Associate, South Asia Program, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "In many ways, the economic world view of the present government is not fully defined."
Still, Modi’s agenda remains ambitious. By May of 2018, he’s aiming for 100 percent electrification of Indian villages, home to 70 percent of the population. Another goal: Lift India into the ranks of the world’s top solar-power-producing nations by 2022 with 100 gigawatts of solar power generation capacity.
"India’s economic growth has picked up, a large number of promising initiatives have been launched and India is once again one of the top venues for international investors," said Gareth Price of the Chatham House research institute in London. "At the same time, there remains much to be done if short-term gains are to result in sustained growth."
To contact the reporters on this story: Enda Curran in Hong Kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net, Unni Krishnan in New Delhi at ukrishnan2@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Brian Bremner, Daniel Ten Kate
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept into power in 2014, he did so with an ambitious mandate to reboot the economy, stamp out corruption and lure foreign investment by streamlining the country’s convoluted regulatory regime.
The leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party won the election by the biggest margin in three decades, and it all seemed to herald a new era for Asia’s third-biggest economy.
Now, approaching his second anniversary as premier, Modi’s reform ambitions are far from realized. On the plus side, India has eclipsed China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy with gross domestic product projected to expand 7.6 percent in the fiscal year through March. Slumping oil prices have helped bring down inflation, improve corporate margins and shore up the current and fiscal accounts.
"The most important international step Modi has taken for the Indian economy has been his strong signal that India is open for international business," said Alyssa Ayres, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Red tape is being cut. India’s ranking has improved in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index, and an Ernst & Young survey found that more than twice as many senior global executives picked India over China as their top investment destination over the next three years.
At the same time, other key aspects of Modinomics have come up short. He has shied away from a promise to make it easier to acquire land and the opposition Congress party has repeatedly blocked a goods-and-services tax aimed at creating a single market among India’s 1.3 billion people. His government also kept in place powers to retroactively tax companies -- a headache for foreign investors -- and shelved efforts to make labor laws more flexible.
Exports remain weak and bad loans rose to a 14-year high by the end of September, presenting a potential drag on growth as company profits have lagged the pace of economic expansion.
State Elections
While a poll published last month put his approval rating at an enviable 58 percent, Modi suffered a big setback in November when he lost key elections in the third-most populous, politically-strategic and low-income state of Bihar, prompting him to focus more on boosting farmer incomes in his latest budget. State elections are crucial to his bigger goal of controlling the upper house of parliament, where opposition forces have united to block proposed reforms.
"Mr. Modi’s government has failed to use favorable domestic and external circumstances as a springboard for much-needed fundamental reforms to boost productivity and long-term growth," said Eswar Prasad, a former chief of the IMF’s China Division and now a professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.
The IMF recently warned that any slowdown in the reform process would hurt growth, fuel inflation and weigh on consumer and investor sentiment. And like China, economists question the veracity of the nation’s economic data.
"How quarterly GDP growth can be over 7 percent year on year, with manufacturing apparently rising by 12 percent when high frequency data show low single-digit industrial production growth, a large double-digit decline in exports, a very-low capacity utilization rate, and ever-declining earnings growth, we frankly don’t know," said Taimur Baig, Asia chief economist at Deutsche Bank AG based in Singapore.
Religious Tensions
Then there are tensions over religion, caste and free speech that some analysts blame on Modi’s strongman approach to governing. "The opposition has consistently found ways to derail its most controversial efforts, but the government too deserves its fair share of blame," said Milan Vaishnav, Senior Associate, South Asia Program, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "In many ways, the economic world view of the present government is not fully defined."
Still, Modi’s agenda remains ambitious. By May of 2018, he’s aiming for 100 percent electrification of Indian villages, home to 70 percent of the population. Another goal: Lift India into the ranks of the world’s top solar-power-producing nations by 2022 with 100 gigawatts of solar power generation capacity.
"India’s economic growth has picked up, a large number of promising initiatives have been launched and India is once again one of the top venues for international investors," said Gareth Price of the Chatham House research institute in London. "At the same time, there remains much to be done if short-term gains are to result in sustained growth."
To contact the reporters on this story: Enda Curran in Hong Kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net, Unni Krishnan in New Delhi at ukrishnan2@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Brian Bremner, Daniel Ten Kate
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
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#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔