prediction markets
Prediction Markets Build Washington Presence as Legislative Pressure Mounts
- Kalshi and Polymarket are scaling up lobbying operations, adding staff, offices and industry groups in Washington.
- The build-out comes as Congress advances multiple bills that could reshape core products such as sports contracts.
Thursday, 16/04/2026 | 17:07 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Market Open Interest Hits $1B as Capital Stays Locked in Long-Dated Bets
- Simultaneous sports, geopolitical and election markets are keeping positions open for weeks or months rather than days.
- Growth is accelerating, but whether that capital proves durable will depend on contract mix and regulatory pressure.
Wednesday, 15/04/2026 | 18:40 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Robinhood Takes a Curated Approach to Prediction Markets, Avoiding High-Risk Contracts
- Robinhood is selectively listing contracts, avoiding markets where insider information or manipulation risks are harder to control.
- The strategy relies on regulated venues and a narrower product set — raising questions about how it will compete as the market expands.
Monday, 13/04/2026 | 12:16 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
ETF Issuers Move to Package Prediction Markets but Approval Is Far from Certain
- Issuers are using the ETF wrapper to give investors access to event-based contracts through brokerage accounts.
- The filings hinge on liquidity, swaps and regulatory approval none of which are guaranteed.
Friday, 10/04/2026 | 19:05 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Says its Edge Comes from Retail Traders but the Picture is More Complex
- Research suggests prediction markets can match traditional forecasts, but the source of that accuracy is debated.
- As automation and professional traders enter the market, the retail-driven edge may narrow.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 16:30 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
A Tech Layoff 'Fear Gauge': Niche Prediction Market Becomes a Leading Economic Indicator
- The contract assigns an 83% probability to higher tech layoffs, drawing over $30M in trading volume.
- Traders are using the market as a real-time signal on AI-driven workforce changes and corporate cost cuts.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 14:24 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Retail Traders Can Now Access Prediction Markets Through Binance Wallet
- Predict.fun enables Binance Wallet’s new feature, which eliminates gas fees and wallet setup requirements.
- Prediction market volumes are surging, including $701.7 million traded in a single day this year.
Thursday, 09/04/2026 | 12:41 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Kalshi Sells Prediction Market Data to Fox, Expanding Beyond Trading
- The partnership distributes real-time probability data across Fox’s broadcast and streaming platforms.
- For Kalshi, licensing data creates a revenue stream that does not depend on trading activity.
Wednesday, 08/04/2026 | 12:23 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket Replaces Bridged USDC Aiming for a U.S. Relaunch
- The platform is replacing bridged USDC with a native token backed 1:1 by reserve-held USDC.
- The overhaul reduces bridge risk and adds features institutional traders typically require, including multisig support.
Tuesday, 07/04/2026 | 13:42 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: $1.6B Institutional Inflow Meets a Federal Crackdown
- The CFTC names insider trading a priority as ICE closes its Polymarket investment and Kalshi wins margin approval.
- Enforcement tightens while capital and activity continue to grow across prediction markets.
Friday, 03/04/2026 | 12:36 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
LALIGA Signs Polymarket in First European League Deal with a Prediction Market Platform
- Polymarket is using sports partnerships to distribute event contracts to a wider audience.
- Growth through distribution is accelerating, but regulatory treatment remains unresolved.
Friday, 03/04/2026 | 11:53 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Marex Launches Structured Note Linked to Prediction Market Outcome
- The note turns a yes-or-no market outcome into a fixed coupon, repackaging event risk into a familiar format.
- The structure works only as long as prediction markets remain liquid enough to hedge the exposure.
Friday, 03/04/2026 | 08:21 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Gibraltar Licenses First Prediction Market Operator in Bid to Attract Sector Growth
- The license reflects growing pressure on Gibraltar’s gambling sector as UK tax changes raise costs for operators.
- Prediction markets are being tested as an alternative, but their scale and regulatory status remain uncertain.
Thursday, 02/04/2026 | 11:46 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Oil Traders Turn to Prediction Markets for Signals, Raising Integrity Concerns
- Prediction market data is entering trading models as an additional signal alongside traditional inputs.
- Its use raises concerns about insider information, liquidity and how such signals are formed.
Thursday, 02/04/2026 | 10:40 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Match-Trader Enters Prediction Markets With White-Label Offering for Brokers
- Match-Trade Technologies says the product runs on the same engine that has powered its FX and CFD infrastructure for more than 13 years.
- Global prediction market trading volume crossed $44 billion in 2025, drawing a growing number of infrastructure vendors and retail brokers.
Thursday, 02/04/2026 | 10:31 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
CFTC Says Prediction Markets Are Derivatives, Not Gambling - and Insider Trading Laws Apply
- The regulator is pushing back on the idea that prediction markets operate outside existing trading rules.
- For firms, the focus shifts to monitoring how non-public information is used in event-based trading.
Wednesday, 01/04/2026 | 10:55 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Launches Ad Campaign in Washington D.C. but Not Everyone Is Buying It
- The campaign targets policymakers and regulators, aiming to separate Kalshi from offshore platforms.
- While the message stresses compliance, doubts remain over how insider trading rules can be enforced in practice.
Tuesday, 31/03/2026 | 12:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Senator Warren Leads Push to Tighten Insider Trading Enforcement in Prediction Markets
- Lawmakers are asking regulators to clarify how insider trading rules apply to event-based contracts.
- For brokers and platforms, the focus is shifting toward monitoring, detection and internal controls.
Tuesday, 31/03/2026 | 09:32 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Kalshi Pushes Prediction Markets Into Derivatives Territory With Margin Plans
- Margin would let institutions trade event contracts with less upfront capital, improving capital efficiency.
- The feature is not yet live and will initially be limited, with approval and liquidity remaining key constraints.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 13:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Analysts Say $200 Oil Is Possible - Prediction Markets Show It’s Not Probable
- Analysts model how prices could react under disruption, while markets assign probabilities to those scenarios.
- Event contracts imply that even severe supply shocks are not currently seen as the central outcome.
Monday, 30/03/2026 | 10:57 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
ICE Expands $1.6B Stake in Polymarket Despite Ongoing Regulatory Scrutiny
- ICE is expanding its Polymarket stake while also packaging prediction market data into signals for institutional use.
- The move highlights growing interest from infrastructure providers, even as regulatory uncertainty remains unresolved.
Friday, 27/03/2026 | 17:42 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
ARK and Kalshi Test Prediction Markets as a Research Tool
- ARK will create custom event contracts to track macro trends, company metrics and scientific milestones.
- Early data suggests predictive value, but signal quality depends on liquidity and market structure.
Friday, 27/03/2026 | 11:04 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Prediction Markets Go Nuclear, but Trust Push Continues
- Prediction market punters reportedly placed significant bets on a nuclear strike, while Polymarket partners with Palantir for analytics and monitoring of sports markets. Paul Golden explores the impact of the controversial AI giant.
- He also delved into Boris Johnson's mind following his recent comments on crypto and the institutional adoption of stablecoins.
Wednesday, 25/03/2026 | 15:49 GMT by
Paul Golden
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