Plus500 (LSE: PLUS) used its annual general meeting in London today (Tuesday) to reaffirm the upgraded full-year guidance it issued two weeks ago, telling shareholders that performance in the first quarter ran ahead of market expectations and that the board remains confident in the outlook for the rest of 2026.
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The statement repeats the substance of the Q1 trading update Plus500 released on April 20, when the company first told investors to expect revenue and EBITDA above consensus.
The Israeli broker said it entered FY 2026 with momentum across both its OTC and non-OTC businesses, citing growth in B2B futures and its newer prediction markets ecosystem.
The Q1 Numbers Behind the Message
The figures Plus500 was alluding to in Tuesday's commentary were already on the table. Revenue rose 18% year-on-year to $242.1 million in Q1, a 24% jump from the fourth quarter of 2025, while EBITDA reached $95.7 million on a 40% margin.
Customer income, which the company describes as a leading indicator of platform activity, hit $270.6 million, the highest quarterly reading since the pandemic-era boom of 2021.
Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | YoY change |
Revenue | $242.1m | $205.8m | +18% |
EBITDA | $95.7m | $93.8m | +2% |
Customer Income | $270.6m | $176.3m | +53% |
New Customers | 39,867 | 26,897 | +48% |
Active Customers | 157,703 | 30,000 | +21% |
The board's stance carries weight because Plus500 has a history of overshooting its own forecasts. The company delivered $792.4 million in revenue and $348.1 million in EBITDA for FY 2025, comfortably above the Bloomberg consensus of $757.7 million and $345.8 million it had been working against last summer.
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Current consensus for FY 2026 sits at $779.3 million and $360.4 million, which the board now expects to surpass.
UK Peers Ride the Same Volatility Wave
What makes Plus500's commentary less of a standout is that every UK-listed retail broker is telling investors more or less the same story. Heightened volatility from gold's January correction, the Middle East conflict that pushed Brent crude past $115, and macro repricing on rate paths have lifted activity across the cohort.
IG Group reported Q1 calendar 2026 revenue of around £300 million, up roughly 7% year-on-year, alongside CY 2025 results showing total revenue of £1.12 billion and net trading revenue at £1.0 billion.
Chief Executive Breon Corcoran told investors IG now expects organic revenue growth at the top end of its mid-to-high single-digit guidance range for 2026, and the company has launched a strategic review that may include a New York relisting.
CMC Markets, which operates on a March fiscal year, pulled forward its FY 2026 guidance in November to roughly 10% above the £353.9 million consensus.
The London-listed broker reported H1 2026 net operating income of £186.2 million and pointed to a white-label deal with Westpac that it expects will add 40% to its Australian customer base over a 12-month integration.
The Polish broker XTB, which also operate in the UK retail market, delivered the most dramatic Q1 in the European listed cohort. Operating revenue jumped 88.5% year-on-year to PLN 1.09 billion, roughly $301 million, and net profit climbed 176% to PLN 535 million as the broker added 370,000 new clients in three months.
XTB CEO Omar Arnaout told investors the result validated the company's bet on aggressive marketing spend through 2025, when net profit had fallen 25% even as client numbers expanded.
Prediction Markets Become the Differentiator
Where Plus500's outlook commentary actually differs from peers is in non-OTC. The broker's US arm, built around its 2021 purchase of Cunningham Commodities, generated about $35 million in Q1 revenue, up 45% year-on-year, and now accounts for roughly 15% of group turnover.
Plus500 launched a B2C prediction markets product in February through the Plus500 Futures brand, distributing event contracts issued by Kalshi.
The broker also acts as clearing partner for the CME Group and FanDuel event-contracts venture that went live late in 2025, putting it on both sides of the regulatory split currently dividing the US prediction markets industry. A next-generation version with broader product range is expected in Q2.
"Customer Income reached a five-year record high in Q1 2026, driven by the continued execution of our strategic shift toward higher-value customers," CEO David Zruia said in last month's update. The board did not quantify Tuesday how far above consensus FY 2026 would land.
Plus500 shares closed Friday at 4,530 pence in London, valuing the broker at roughly £3.16 billion. The stock is up about 72% over the past year but remains below the February peak it touched before three top executives, including Zruia and CFO Elad Even-Chen, sold a combined £67.1 million in stock days after the launch of a $100 million buyback.
