With the 2016 US Presidential primaries in full swing, IG Group has tapped into the election fever with the launch of its US Presidential Election Barometer, an indicator that aggregates what financial traders are slated to expect pending the upcoming electoral result in November.
Financial markets have always been subject to change following political turnover in the United States, the world’s largest financial bloc, and the upcoming 2016 election could also prove to be significant given the potential for party turnover to a Republican-led regime, highlighted by a diverse panel of candidates led presently by US billionaire and mogul Donald Trump.
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IG Group’s data suite is based on the political market IG has created for clients to trade on which covers who will win the US presidential election. In particular, the broker will be publishing data leading up to the general election, coupled with updates throughout the primaries cycle, which began last week in Iowa. In addition to periodic updates, the new barometer will feature the likelihood of the candidates for both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations becoming the next US President.
To date, the consensus top candidates vying for the general election in November have been Donald Trump (R) and Hillary Clinton (D). In years past however, IG Group has successfully predicted a string of political events, including Barack Obama’s 2012 presidential victory as well as the outcome of Scotland’s referendum back in 2014.
According to IG clients’ predictions, Donald Trump’s (R) odds of winning the presidential election have fallen to 13% from 20%, with Texas Senator, Ted Cruz’s (R) chances of securing the presidency having risen to 5%. By extension, Hilary Clinton remains the front-runner to secure the nomination, presently standing at 54%.
Predictive analytics and polls are in high demand ahead of most major developments, the most common being relegated to sporting events. However, gambling sites routinely tap into the insights of statistics sites when determining odds, which often rely on a compilation of venues for quotes.