Over the past twenty four hours Namecoin has been struggling to move beyond a certain resistance zone, and I can’t see it succeeding any time soon.
Let’s take a closer look at the latest NMC/USD H4 chart below:
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I’ve performed the Fibonacci study from the high of the month on the 1st, until the low of the month at 2.005. It’s clear that the psychological whole number of 2.000 provided significant enough support to disarm the bears, preventing price from heading down for a third consecutive day, initiating a small retrace to the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 2.066, circled in red. But that’s all it’s probably going to be – a small retrace, as far as today is concerned anyway.
Observing the two candles circled in white, we can see how their price actions are almost a mirror image of each other. The first candle has a short upper body, possessing a long lower wick and no upper wick, whilst the second candle has a short lower body, possessing virtually no lower wick (negligible), and a long upper wick. This price pattern on the higher timeframes is quite rare (it happens more often on lower timeframes such as the one-minute, often due to noise), so when we see this, it usually means the market isn’t really going anywhere for the next few candles.
This, despite the fact that a lot of the technicals are telling us to buy. E.g. we have the Stochastic Oscillator in an oversold position, now heading upwards, plus the Accelerator Oscillator and the Awesome Oscillator have turned green earlier today. However, there are other indicators providing some opposition to any bull retrace thoughts, such as the Parabolic SAR dots still above the candlesticks, and all three Bollinger bands are still heading south.
All in all, I simply can’t see price transgressing the boundaries set by the psychological support of 2.000 and the 23.6% Fib at 2.066 for the rest the day.