NMC/USD Technical Analysis – 24th April 2014

Namecoin fell from a high of 2.500 till 2.33 this morning, although we've seen a significant retrace in recent hours.

I’ve performed the Fibonacci study from the year low at 1.34 until the month high at 3.35.

Remember in my previous couple of Namecoin analyses, I mentioned "the bears will very likely push price down again – my guess is to at least the 50% at 2.345, possibly this week", before hoping that 50% may hold, which it did - as can be seen by way of today's NMC/USD Daily chart below (click to expand):

Now, price has tested 50% (at 2.34) on three separate occasions over the past week (circled in blue), thus proving we have a decent support being established here. I did talk about a possible break, asking, "The key question now is, will 50% hold? Possibly, but even if it doesn’t, I can still see 61.8% providing enough support for this week." Well, given the number of times price has now tested 50%, and has been ultimately rejected every time, it seems unlikely that we're going to see bears garner enough strength to push further down below 50% this week.

Right now, we're seeing price hovering around 2.435, and that's due to another Fibonacci retracement level, this time on the hourly timeframe. Take a look at the H1 chart below (click to expand):

I've marked in red the key Fib resistance line here, 61.8% at 2.435, it's giving the recent bulls a real tough time, reflected by the couple of extreme spinning tops, possessing long upper and lower wicks - this tells me the bulls could be exhausted, and we'll probably see price fall within the next few hours, perhaps back down to the swing low here at 2.33, which is of course, the 50% level in our first chart on the Daily timeframe.