BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 11th May 2014

The price action on Bitcoin over the weekend behaved in a manner precisely as I had envisioned, with price rising

The price action on Bitcoin over the weekend behaved in a manner precisely as I had envisioned, with price rising after certain conditions had been met, whilst the resistance zone, which has been holding for almost a fortnight, continues to stay firm.

During my previous technical analysis on BTC/USD on Friday last week, I posted the following chart:

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btcusddaily_09_05_2014

For which I performed the Fibonacci study from the high of last month on the 16th of April at 545, until the low of this month at 410, where I mentioned, “despite the slight drop yesterday, both the Accelerator Oscillator and the Awesome Oscillator closed the day as green, giving me the green light (pardon the pun), to state with confidence that I strongly expect the price of Bitcoin to reach at least the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level very soon, probably over the weekend.”

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Indeed, this testing of 23.6% at 442 came to pass over the weekend, as we take a closer look at the latest BTC/USD Daily chart below (click to expand):

btcusddaily_11_05_2014

However, price has not been able to surpass 23.6%, and for good reason, which I expanded upon on Friday, “The reason why I’m still sceptical about price hiking even higher than 23.6% at 442 just yet is due to a number of other technicals such as the Parabolic SAR dots above the candlesticks, the Bollinger bands heading down, and perhaps most pertinently, previous price action, in so far as the sine wave that’s been occurring over the past fortnight between the current low and 23.6%.”

Whether or not this sine wave carries on over this coming week remains to be seen. We have some factors which may prevent another drop to the current low, at least for the first half of this week, since the Stochastics are still heading up, far from an overbought territory, the Accelerator and Awesome Oscillators are both a bullish green. I suspect there could be another test of 23.6% this week.

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