XRP price is falling for a third consecutive session today (Tuesday), 23 December 2025, dropping back below the $1.90 level and hovering near its lowest prices since April, marking eight-month lows.

From this year's July peak, when one XRP traded at $3.67, the price has already halved, and on a year-to-date basis, XRP is down roughly 13%, effectively erasing the dynamic mid-year rally that captivated traders.

According to my technical analysis, the chart suggests the cryptocurrency can fall even lower, with two clear downside targets now in focus.​ In this article, I examine how low XRP price can go and analyze the XRP/USDT daily chart.

Retail investor behaviour and market sentiment have been significantly reshaped by heightened volatility this year, a trend that brokers said at Finance Magnates London Summit 2025 is driving cautious trading and could be contributing to sell‑offs in risk assets like XRP.

Why Is XRP Going Down Again?

The broader cryptocurrency market is under pressure as total market capitalization fell 2.4% over the past 24 hours to $3.06 trillion, with Bitcoin declining 2.4% to around $87,780 and most large-cap tokens posting losses. XRP is mirroring this risk-off move but with sharper percentage declines typical of its high-beta profile. The token closed Monday at $1.90, down from $1.93 the prior session and marking a steady deterioration from the $2.20+ zone that held through much of late November.

"The current correction demonstrates the fragility of this market and its continued susceptibility to panic selling," says Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto exchange VALR. He outlines two scenarios: either a very large player such as a fund, bank or state is preparing a significant purchase, making the decline potentially artificial and setting up a sharp rebound, or the market is oversaturated and the weakening dollar plus Fed policy have reduced demand for high-risk assets, implying recovery could take more than a year.

From a macro perspective, Joel Kruger, LMAX Group, notes that "traditional markets provide a supportive but measured backdrop. A softer US dollar and a modest pullback in Treasury yields help cap downside volatility , while ongoing debate around the Fed's policy outlook sustains interest in bitcoin as a non-sovereign, scarce asset".

Read more: Brokers at Finance Magnates London Summit 2025 said retail traders are shaping flows in volatile assets like XRP.

XRP Price Analysis: Bearish Regression Channel And Death Cross

From my technical view, XRP has been making fresh lows session after session, prompting me to refresh the chart with updated levels and a bearish regression channel that has been in place uninterrupted since July. The lower boundary of this channel was last tested in late February, and price is now gravitating back toward that zone. Currently, XRP is using a local support area around $1.80, tested just last week, with prior contacts on 21 November and several sessions in April.

According to my technical analysis, the far more important level lies at $1.62, where the lower edge of the regression channel coincides with the lows from eight months ago, representing one of the lowest prices of the year. This is my first bearish target. The ultimate downside objective sits at $1.25, the low from the October 10 flash crash, when XRP briefly tested and bounced within the November 2024 supply–demand accumulation zone. Analysts note that the October crash marked a significant bearish shift, erasing roughly $1.3 trillion in total crypto market value.

From the current price near $1.90, XRP could fall approximately 14% to reach the first target at $1.62 and as much as 34% to hit the second target at $1.25. Supporting this bearish outlook is the moving average grid: price trades well below both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, and the pair formed a death cross at the beginning of November, a classic technical signal of deteriorating momentum.

If you like my work and analyses, please follow me on X!

Key Resistance Levels For XRP Price Recovery

While my base case remains tilted to the downside, it's important to map the resistance ladder that would need to be reclaimed for any meaningful recovery.

According to my technical analysis, the first substantial resistance zone spans $2.07 to $2.25, combining the upper edge of the regression channel, the 50-day moving average, and a cluster of local highs and lows from 2025. This band has repeatedly capped rallies in recent weeks.

Above that, the next resistance level sits around $2.64, the May 2025 high, followed by the psychological $3.00 threshold, which also marks the March 2025 peak. The final resistance band lies at $3.40–$3.55, representing this year's July highs from which the current downtrend originated.

Only a sustained breakout above these zones, especially a decisive move through $2.25 and then $2.64, would invalidate the current bearish XRP price prediction and signal a potential trend reversal.

XRP Price Prediction 2025, 2026

My short- to medium-term XRP price prediction centers on the two downside targets outlined above:

• $1.62 as the primary objective (aligned with the regression channel floor and April lows),
• $1.25 as the ultimate bearish scenario (October flash-crash low and November 2024 accumulation zone).
• The path and timing to these levels will depend on how quickly the current local support at $1.80 gives way and whether broader crypto sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Several factors could invalidate this bearish setup. A strong reversal above the $2.07–$2.25 resistance band, coupled with reclaiming the 50-day moving average and breaking back above the upper edge of the regression channel, would suggest that buyers have regained control.

Potential catalysts for such a reversal include clearer regulatory frameworks (despite the recent Senate delay pushing crypto legislation to 2026), a macro shift toward easier Fed policy, a broad-based crypto rally led by Bitcoin, or large on-chain accumulation becoming visible in whale wallet data.

Kruger's assessment that "crypto markets remain in consolidation mode" underscores that until a clearer catalyst emerges, whether from Fed policy, institutional flows, or breakthrough adoption news, XRP and the broader market are likely to continue drifting within defined ranges, vulnerable to downside breakouts.

XRP Price Analysis, FAQ

Why is XRP going down today?

XRP is going down because it's part of a broader 2.4% crypto market selloff, with risk-off sentiment and year-end profit-taking weighing on all major tokens. Additionally, XRP's 50% drawdown from July and inability to sustain gains despite SEC victory and ETF inflows reflect fragile sentiment and ongoing distribution by early holders.

Is XRP in a bear market now?

Yes. XRP is down 13% year-to-date and 50% from its July peak, trading within a bearish regression channel with a confirmed death cross. While these are classic bear-market signals, the token has outperformed Bitcoin (-18%) and Ethereum (-27%) in 2025, suggesting a correction within a longer-term consolidation rather than a full structural bear phase.

How low can XRP price go in this cycle?

According to my technical analysis, XRP can fall approximately 14% from current levels to the first target at $1.62, and as much as 34% to the ultimate bearish objective at $1.25. These levels correspond to the lower edge of the regression channel, April 2025 lows, and the October flash-crash zone respectively.

Can XRP recover after this crash?

XRP can recover if broader crypto sentiment stabilizes, macro conditions improve, or a major catalyst such as renewed institutional buying or regulatory clarity emerges. A sustained break above $2.25 resistance and reclaiming the 50-day moving average would signal that buyers have regained control and invalidate the current bearish setup.

Before you go, please also check my other XRP price prediction articles:

• How Low Can XRP Go? Death Cross XRP Price Prediction Signals 50% Drop Risk
• This XRP Price Prediction From Ex-Goldman Analyst Eyes $1,000 by 2030
• This New XRP Price Prediction Shows XRP Can Hit $5.50 in 2025