Bitcoin starts September 2025 at $108,253 after 6.5% August decline, testing historically weakest month with average -3.77% losses since 2013.
Technical breakdown shows key support breached at $109K-$111K levels, with analysts targeting potential $100K test during Red September cycle.
Whale accumulation hits record high at 19,130 addresses despite seasonal headwinds, while ETF outflows of $751M signal institutional caution.
Let's check the newest Bitcoin price prediction for September 2025. Will BTC fall this month?
The
question "How low can Bitcoin go in September 2025?" has
taken on urgent relevance as the cryptocurrency enters its historically weakest
month trading today, Monday, 1 September 2025, at $108,253, down 0.49% from
yesterday and marking a concerning 6.5% August decline.
Why is
Bitcoin going down as September begins reflects both seasonal patterns and
technical breakdowns that suggest further weakness ahead. However, my technical
analysis suggests that the declines will be limited, and expert Bitcoin price
predictions for the short and medium term indicate a relatively quick rebound
toward all-time highs (ATH).
Bitcoin September 2025:
Current Price Action
Bitcoin (BTC) begins September at a critical juncture, having broken its four-month
winning streak with August's 6.5% decline while US-listed spot ETFs
hemorrhaged $751 million in outflows. The cryptocurrency now trades near
$108,000, approximately 13% below its August all-time high of $124,533.
Key
Bitcoin metrics for September 1, 2025:
Current
price: $108,253
Monthly start: Down 0.49% from August
31
August performance: -6.5% (first red month
since April)
ETF
outflows: $751 million in August
Whale addresses (100+ BTC): Record high 19,130
The price
action reflects growing concern about Bitcoin's ability to maintain support
levels as the month progresses.
Bitcoin price today. Source: CoinMarketCap.
Red September: Historical
Patterns Spell Trouble
September's Brutal Track
Record
Bitcoin
price predictions September 2025 must account for the month's devastating
historical performance. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted average returns of
-3.77% in September, closing red in 8 of the past 12 years. This
"Red September" phenomenon mirrors broader market patterns, with the
S&P 500 averaging -1.20% returns in September since 1928.
Yuri Berg
from FinchTrade explains the mechanics: "Many investment funds close
their fiscal year in September, divesting losing positions for tax reasons, and
rebalancing their portfolios". The structural selling pressure creates
a self-reinforcing downward spiral as traders anticipate weakness.
September is the one of the worst months for Bitcoin price action. Source: CoinGlass
2025 Mirrors 2017 Pattern
However,
analyst Rekt Fencer argues "a September dump is not coming" this
year, citing similarities to 2017 when Bitcoin found support after August
weakness before "rocketing to $20,000". The chart overlay
reveals Bitcoin hovering near the crucial $105,000-$110,000 base that
previously acted as resistance before flipping to support.
Technical Analysis: How
Low Can Bitcoin Drop?
Key Support Levels Under
Siege
Based on my
comprehensive technical analysis, Friday's nearly 4% decline broke Bitcoin out
of its two-month consolidation that had kept prices near historical maximums.
The cryptocurrency has now broken through legal support around $107,500, which
coincides with the lowest levels in nearly two months.
The
critical support zone begins at $104,000, precisely at the 200-day moving
average (200 MA). This support extends down to the psychological $100,000
level, where significant buy orders have accumulated. This zone is further
reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement measured from the April uptrend to
August's historical maximum near $125,000.
If asked
how low Bitcoin can fall in September 2025, from current levels it would be
maximum 8% decline to exactly $100,000, in my opnions. The analysis doesn't
anticipate a stronger correction, and all downward movements will be treated as
reaccumulation opportunities and buying chances at more attractive prices.
Despite the
bearish setup, "hidden bullish divergence" appears on
Bitcoin's RSI, suggesting "the market is not as weak as the price
chart suggests". Analyst ZYN projects Bitcoin could reach "a
fresh all-time high above $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks" based
on these technical patterns.
How low can Bitcoin go? Technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Institutional Dynamics:
Mixed Signals
Record Whale Accumulation Despite Weakness - A remarkable development shows whale
addresses holding 100+ BTC reached a record high of 19,130, surpassing even the
2017 peak. This accumulation pattern suggests sophisticated investors are
buying the dip despite retail capitulation.
ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Caution - Conversely, $751 million in ETF outflows during
August indicates institutional uncertainty. The divergence between whale
accumulation and ETF selling suggests different time horizons and risk
appetites among large holders.
Fed Policy Creates Macro Tailwind - Currency traders are turning bearish on the
dollar with expectations for Fed rate cuts creating potential upside
catalysts. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index has
weakened to -0.25, its lowest level in two years, suggesting Bitcoin could
benefit from dollar weakness.
September 2025 Bitcoin Price
Predictions: Expert Consensus
Bearish Scenarios Dominate
Changelly's
Bitcoin price predictions September 2025 show potential volatility with a
minimum target of $108,802 and maximum of $124,283. However,
most technical analysts lean bearish given the seasonal headwinds and broken
support levels.
Binance's
forecast projects September ending around $108,332, suggesting
limited upside potential.
The September
Effect stems from multiple converging factors:
Portfolio
rebalancing by institutional investors
Tax loss harvesting before
fiscal year-end
Reduced
summer liquidity creating volatility
Psychological selling based
on historical patterns
Technical Momentum
Breakdown
Key
momentum indicators have turned decisively bearish:
MACD
histogram dropped below zero
RSI shows oversold
conditions below 30
Moving
average structure confirms downtrend
FAQ: Bitcoin September
2025 Outlook
How low can Bitcoin
realistically go in September 2025?
My technical
analysis suggests $100K-$101K as primary support, though some projections see
potential for deeper correction to mid-$90Ks.
Will Bitcoin break the Red
September pattern in 2025?
Mixed
signals, whale accumulation and Fed policy support bulls, while technical
breakdowns and ETF outflows favor bears.
What would trigger a
September rally instead of decline?
Federal
Reserve dovishness, dollar weakness, and institutional re-entry above $113.5K
resistance could flip sentiment.
Is September selling just
a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Partly, but
structural factors like portfolio rebalancing and reduced liquidity create
genuine seasonal headwinds.
The
question "How low can Bitcoin go in September 2025?" has
taken on urgent relevance as the cryptocurrency enters its historically weakest
month trading today, Monday, 1 September 2025, at $108,253, down 0.49% from
yesterday and marking a concerning 6.5% August decline.
Why is
Bitcoin going down as September begins reflects both seasonal patterns and
technical breakdowns that suggest further weakness ahead. However, my technical
analysis suggests that the declines will be limited, and expert Bitcoin price
predictions for the short and medium term indicate a relatively quick rebound
toward all-time highs (ATH).
Bitcoin September 2025:
Current Price Action
Bitcoin (BTC) begins September at a critical juncture, having broken its four-month
winning streak with August's 6.5% decline while US-listed spot ETFs
hemorrhaged $751 million in outflows. The cryptocurrency now trades near
$108,000, approximately 13% below its August all-time high of $124,533.
Key
Bitcoin metrics for September 1, 2025:
Current
price: $108,253
Monthly start: Down 0.49% from August
31
August performance: -6.5% (first red month
since April)
ETF
outflows: $751 million in August
Whale addresses (100+ BTC): Record high 19,130
The price
action reflects growing concern about Bitcoin's ability to maintain support
levels as the month progresses.
Bitcoin price today. Source: CoinMarketCap.
Red September: Historical
Patterns Spell Trouble
September's Brutal Track
Record
Bitcoin
price predictions September 2025 must account for the month's devastating
historical performance. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted average returns of
-3.77% in September, closing red in 8 of the past 12 years. This
"Red September" phenomenon mirrors broader market patterns, with the
S&P 500 averaging -1.20% returns in September since 1928.
Yuri Berg
from FinchTrade explains the mechanics: "Many investment funds close
their fiscal year in September, divesting losing positions for tax reasons, and
rebalancing their portfolios". The structural selling pressure creates
a self-reinforcing downward spiral as traders anticipate weakness.
September is the one of the worst months for Bitcoin price action. Source: CoinGlass
2025 Mirrors 2017 Pattern
However,
analyst Rekt Fencer argues "a September dump is not coming" this
year, citing similarities to 2017 when Bitcoin found support after August
weakness before "rocketing to $20,000". The chart overlay
reveals Bitcoin hovering near the crucial $105,000-$110,000 base that
previously acted as resistance before flipping to support.
Technical Analysis: How
Low Can Bitcoin Drop?
Key Support Levels Under
Siege
Based on my
comprehensive technical analysis, Friday's nearly 4% decline broke Bitcoin out
of its two-month consolidation that had kept prices near historical maximums.
The cryptocurrency has now broken through legal support around $107,500, which
coincides with the lowest levels in nearly two months.
The
critical support zone begins at $104,000, precisely at the 200-day moving
average (200 MA). This support extends down to the psychological $100,000
level, where significant buy orders have accumulated. This zone is further
reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement measured from the April uptrend to
August's historical maximum near $125,000.
If asked
how low Bitcoin can fall in September 2025, from current levels it would be
maximum 8% decline to exactly $100,000, in my opnions. The analysis doesn't
anticipate a stronger correction, and all downward movements will be treated as
reaccumulation opportunities and buying chances at more attractive prices.
Despite the
bearish setup, "hidden bullish divergence" appears on
Bitcoin's RSI, suggesting "the market is not as weak as the price
chart suggests". Analyst ZYN projects Bitcoin could reach "a
fresh all-time high above $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks" based
on these technical patterns.
How low can Bitcoin go? Technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Institutional Dynamics:
Mixed Signals
Record Whale Accumulation Despite Weakness - A remarkable development shows whale
addresses holding 100+ BTC reached a record high of 19,130, surpassing even the
2017 peak. This accumulation pattern suggests sophisticated investors are
buying the dip despite retail capitulation.
ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Caution - Conversely, $751 million in ETF outflows during
August indicates institutional uncertainty. The divergence between whale
accumulation and ETF selling suggests different time horizons and risk
appetites among large holders.
Fed Policy Creates Macro Tailwind - Currency traders are turning bearish on the
dollar with expectations for Fed rate cuts creating potential upside
catalysts. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index has
weakened to -0.25, its lowest level in two years, suggesting Bitcoin could
benefit from dollar weakness.
September 2025 Bitcoin Price
Predictions: Expert Consensus
Bearish Scenarios Dominate
Changelly's
Bitcoin price predictions September 2025 show potential volatility with a
minimum target of $108,802 and maximum of $124,283. However,
most technical analysts lean bearish given the seasonal headwinds and broken
support levels.
Binance's
forecast projects September ending around $108,332, suggesting
limited upside potential.
Damian's adventure with financial markets began at the Cracow University of Economics, where he obtained his MA in finance and accounting. Starting from the retail trader perspective, he collaborated with brokerage houses and financial portals in Poland as an independent editor and content manager. His adventure with Finance Magnates began in 2016, where he is working as a business intelligence analyst.
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In this interview, we sat down with Charlotte Bullock, Head of Product at The Bank of London, previously at SAP and now shaping product at one of the sector’s most ambitious new banking players.
Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
In this interview, we sat down with Charlotte Bullock, Head of Product at The Bank of London, previously at SAP and now shaping product at one of the sector’s most ambitious new banking players.
Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
In this conversation, we sit down with Drew Niv, CSO at ATFX Connect and one of the most influential figures in modern FX.
We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
In this conversation, we sit down with Drew Niv, CSO at ATFX Connect and one of the most influential figures in modern FX.
We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
Executive Interview | Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller| CEO & Founder Muinmos | FMLS:25
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In this interview, Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller, founder of Muinmos, breaks down the state of AI in regtech and what responsible adoption really looks like for brokers. We talk about rising fragmentation, the pressures around compliance accuracy, and why most firms are still in the early stages of AI maturity.
Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
In this interview, Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller, founder of Muinmos, breaks down the state of AI in regtech and what responsible adoption really looks like for brokers. We talk about rising fragmentation, the pressures around compliance accuracy, and why most firms are still in the early stages of AI maturity.
Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
In this conversation, we speak with Aydin Bonabi, CEO and co-founder of Surveill, a firm focused on fraud detection and AI-driven compliance tools for financial institutions.
We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
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We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
