Ethereum price tumbled 3% on Monday, February 9, 2026, trading at $2,028 and edging dangerously close to the psychologically critical $2,000 level. This selloff comes despite bullish institutional ETH price forecasts from major banks like Standard Chartered and Citi, creating a stark disconnect between long-term predictions and current market realities.
In this article I am answering a question of why Ethereum price is going down today and how low it can go according to my technical analysis of ETH/USDT chart. Moreover, I am examining the newest ETH price forecasts from the biggest investment banks. You can follow me on X for more crypto and metals technical analysis.
Ethereum Price Predictions 2026
Standard Chartered's Aggressive $7,500 Target
Standard Chartered has emerged as the most bullish major financial institution on Ethereum, with Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research, declaring 2026 as "the year of Ethereum". The bank's revised forecast sets a $7,500 target for end-2026, with extended projections reaching $15,000 in 2027, $22,000 in 2028, $30,000 in 2029, and $40,000 by 2030.
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The London-based bank cites several catalysts supporting this aggressive outlook: Ethereum's dominance in stablecoins and DeFi, institutional accumulation (firms like Bitmine Immersion now hold 3.4% of circulating ether), and the anticipated Fusaka network upgrade. Standard Chartered analysts also linked technical improvements to an even more aggressive $12,000 price target, contingent on successful implementation of Vitalik Buterin's roadmap for a 10x increase in Ethereum's Layer 1 throughput by 2026.
The bank's confidence partially stems from pending U.S. regulatory clarity, particularly the Clarity Act, which underwent Senate review in mid-January with potential passage expected in Q1 2026. However, recent market volatility has tested these optimistic scenarios.
Citi and Traditional Finance Join the Bull Camp
Citi has issued a forecast predicting Ethereum would reach $5,440 within 12 months, citing rising investor demand and sustained ETF inflows. The bank's analysts wrote that they anticipate "modest upside into year-end, with further gains expected next year due to investor demand."
Traditional finance institutions have coalesced around conservative but bullish targets in the $6,500-$7,500 range, highlighting aggressive accumulation by corporate treasuries and spot ETFs. These institutional vehicles have acquired approximately 3.8% of all Ether in circulation since June 2025. Treasury firms alone purchased around 2.3 million ETH in just over two months, nearly double the pace seen in comparable Bitcoin accumulation phases.
Earlier institutional forecasts from September 2025 targeted $5,200 for Ethereum by Q1 2026, driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts and liquidity expansion. Those projections now appear overly optimistic given current price action.
ETH Technical Analysis: Bears Control the Chart
My technical analysis paints a starkly different picture from institutional bullishness. Bears currently dominate the Ethereum chart, and I've identified three distinct downside targets for the coming weeks and months.
Short-Term Target: $1,760
The first near-term target sits at $1,760, matching 2026's year-to-date lows and coinciding with May 2025 minimums. Sunday's bearish pin bar below the local resistance at $2,100 signals we should head toward this level soon. This represents approximately 33% downside from current levels.
Medium-Term Target: $1,400
The second target lies around $1,400, corresponding to April 2025 lows. Bitcoin has already tested these depths, but Ethereum hasn't yet revisited these levels—making it only a matter of time. While I would anticipate a bounce from this zone, Bitcoin's chart accelerated much more aggressively before deciding to reverse. This level represents 47% downside from Monday's price.
Long-Term Bearish Scenario: $1,000
In a more bearish long-term scenario, I wouldn't rule out a decline to the psychologically round $1,000 level—the lowest prices since November 2022. Significantly, this area also aligns with the 100% Fibonacci extension measured on the downtrend from near-$5,000 peaks in August 2025. This catastrophic scenario would erase virtually all gains achieved since late 2022.
Similar bearish technical patterns emerged in November 2025, when death cross formations signaled potential declines to $1,370-$1,500 range.
Vitalik's Austerity Sparks Concerns
Paul Howard, Director at Wincent, contextualizes Ethereum's price weakness within broader risk market dynamics: "ETH's price move is indicative of what we see in global risk markets and compounded by rumours Buterin's Ethereum Foundation is 'entering a period of mild austerity' over the next five years to achieve its goals."
Howard references Vitalik Buterin's January 30 announcement: "For this reason, I have just withdrawn 16,384 ETH, which will be deployed toward these goals over the next few years." On-chain analysis shows only about 3,000 ETH has been sold, but this move has "no doubt spooked ETH buyers into a 'wait and see' mode and given the options market a free lunch on Tom Lee."
The market's reaction to Buterin's withdrawal highlights investor sensitivity to any perceived weakness in Ethereum's financial position—even when the withdrawal represents a tiny fraction of circulating supply.
Market Stabilization After Extreme Fear
Joel Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX, offers a more balanced perspective: "The crypto market has stabilized following last week's sharp selloff, which had pushed the crypto fear and greed index to extreme fear levels."
Kruger notes that after Bitcoin retraced more than 50% from its October record high, "price action has moderated, with signs of consolidation emerging as forced liquidation pressures ease. The market appears to be transitioning from a disorderly de-risking phase toward a more selective, two-way environment."
From a positioning perspective, Kruger observes that "the depth of the correction is beginning to attract interest from medium- and longer-term investors looking to add exposure on weakness." This suggests accumulation may be occurring beneath the surface panic, potentially supporting institutional price targets on longer timeframes.
This stabilization follows extreme volatility in early February 2026, when crypto markets plunged to 2026 lows across major assets.
Historical Context: February's Make-or-Break Month
Ethereum entered February 2026 at a critical juncture after losing nearly 7% in January—contrasting sharply with its historical median January return of +32%. February historically delivers median gains around +15% since 2016, making this month crucial for confirming trend direction.
Key technical levels to watch include support near $2,690 and upside resistance at $3,000 and $3,340. The failure to hold $2,690 on Monday's session validates the bearish case outlined in my technical analysis.
Previous Ethereum price predictions from mid-2025 targeted $16,700 by 2026 based on ascending triangle patterns and institutional demand—forecasts that now appear wildly optimistic given current market conditions.
Analysis from January 2026 questioned whether this would be the year Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, noting that by 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum moved together about 70-90% of the time.
Ethereum Price Prediction Table
Source | Target Price | Timeframe | Upside/Downside from $2,628 | Key Catalyst |
Standard Chartered | $7,500 | End-2026 | +185% | Fusaka upgrade, institutional adoption |
Standard Chartered (extended) | $12,000 | 2026-2027 | +357% | 10x Layer 1 throughput increase |
Citi | $5,440 | October 2026 | +107% | ETF inflows, investor demand |
Traditional Finance Consensus | $6,500-$7,500 | 2026 | +147% to +185% | Corporate treasury accumulation |
Technical Analysis (short-term) | $1,760 | Weeks | -33% | Bearish pin bar, year-to-date lows |
Technical Analysis (medium-term) | $1,400 | Months | -47% | April 2025 lows retest |
Technical Analysis (long-term bear) | $1,000 | Extended | -62% | 100% Fibonacci extension |
However, technical momentum remains firmly bearish, and until Ethereum reclaims the $3,000 psychological level, bears maintain control. Previous analysis from August 2025 showed similar technical setups leading to $10,000-$15,000 targets driven by AI adoption and Wall Street blockchain integration, targets that now appear disconnected from market reality.
