Prediction markets just got their first product from a major regulated exchange. Cboe Global Markets has launched Cboe Predicts, bringing binary options on the Mini-S&P 500 into the regulated securities framework.
The contracts listed under symbols XSPBW and XSPBX are now live on Interactive Brokers, with Charles Schwab expected to follow in the coming months. Additional retail brokerage platforms are anticipated over time.
NEWS: Cboe Introduces Cboe Predicts, Launching First Products in New Prediction Markets Suite
— Cboe (@Cboe) June 23, 2026
Read the full press release: https://t.co/soyXfZbcin pic.twitter.com/cUksUHdWZ2
How the Product Works
Traders take a "yes" or "no" position on whether XSP will close at or above a specified level. A correct "yes" position pays $100; an incorrect one pays $0.
The structure shares the same binary payoff mechanics as existing event contracts on platforms like Kalshi, but these are listed securities, regulated under the same framework as US-listed options and centrally cleared by OCC.
XSP is scaled to one-tenth the size of the S&P 500 Index, making it a smaller-ticket entry point for retail participants.
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What Sets This Product Apart
Prediction markets in the US have operated under competing regulatory claims, with the CFTC and state gaming authorities in active dispute, and platforms like Kalshi fighting state-level enforcement in court.
Cboe's product is structured as a security option rather than an event contract under the Commodity Exchange Act, routing it through the established US securities framework, which is a different regulatory path from existing prediction market venues.
Interactive Brokers has already unified access to Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx under a single interface. Cboe's binary options now extend that ecosystem.
Charles Schwab's entry carries some context: CEO Rick Wurster previously called prediction markets closer to gambling than investing. The firm plans to offer Cboe Predicts to clients in the coming months.
What Comes Next
Cboe plans to layer in XSP vertical spreads through its proprietary Quoted Spread Book framework, packaging options strategies into a defined-risk format for traders already familiar with yes/no outcomes.
The exchange has also launched a prediction markets education hub through The Options Institute.
Which brokerage platforms get access next, and how retail flow distributes across competing venues, will likely become clearer as Schwab rolls out access in the coming months.
