Weekly Wrap: Kalshi Pulls Prediction Markets Toward Derivatives; Why Staying Invested Wins

Friday, 03/04/2026 | 21:22 GMT by Jared Kirui
  • Japan’s DMM Securities led global FX trading in 2025 with an average monthly volume of $1.463 trillion.
  • CySEC warns that smartphone trading apps are fueling speculative risk-taking among young investors.
Poland’s forex and CFD trader base jumps 50%
Poland’s forex and CFD trader base jumps 50%

DMM Securities led global FX in 2025

Global retail FX remained highly concentrated in 2025, with Japan’s DMM Securities once again emerging as the clear volume leader. DMM Securities was the top retail FX broker globally, based on Finance Magnates Intelligence data focused solely on FX trading volumes.

Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!).

The Japanese firm recorded an average monthly volume of $1.463 trillion for the year, with activity peaking in the first half of 2025, when monthly volumes were close to $1.69 trillion. This marks yet another year in which DMM Securities has held the number one spot in the global FX rankings.

While the gap between leading Japanese firms is narrowing, the second-ranked broker averaged $1.367 trillion in monthly FX volume in 2025.

Poland’s FX/CFD traders surge 50%

Elsewhere, Poland’s retail FX and CFD market grew rapidly last year, with the number of active traders rising by about 50% to roughly 370,000, according to data from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF). Over the same period, clients collectively lost a record 2.68 billion zlotys, underscoring the high risk attached to leveraged OTC derivatives.

fx cfd poland

The KNF report, which covers the full spectrum of OTC products offered by Polish-licensed brokers, found that total losses were nearly four times larger than total profits generated by winning clients. Around 102,919 active clients ended the year in profit, while 266,818 recorded a net loss, meaning more than 72% of traders lost money overall.

XTB is estimated to have up to 12,000 CFD accounts in France, where the national regulator is considered one of the most active in the European Union.

The broker recently signed a high-profile sponsorship deal with Paris La Défense Arena, Europe’s largest indoor venue, signalling that France is a key strategic market for XTB in 2026. France remains the EU’s second-largest economy, with GDP per capita projected to exceed 51,000 dollars this year.

Why patience wins in volatile markets

Market volatility is inevitable, but trying to predict its ups and downs rarely works. Paul Golden argues that investors who remain calmand stay invested tend to achieve stronger long-term results than those who react impulsively.

He highlights 2025’s strong dividend payouts and increased trading in oil and crypto markets as proof that patience can pay off even when conditions shift rapidly.

Golden also cites data from Schroders’ Duncan Lamont showing that global equities have seen double-digit declines in most years since 1972, yet, historically, annual gains have more than offset those drops. The lesson is straightforward: market corrections are normal, but recoveries are often swift, and disciplined investors who stay the course capture the biggest rewards.

CySEC warns EU on smartphone-fueled risk-taking

In the regulatory front, CySEC Vice Chairman Panikkos Vakkou warned that the explosion of smartphone investing apps, combined with aggressive marketing, is encouraging young and inexperienced investors to take on risks they may not fully understand.

He argues that the EU’s planned Savings and Investment Union should go further by explicitly banning the gamification of investing, such as game-like features and reward mechanisms that can nudge users toward speculative products.

His latest warning builds on CySEC’s earlier stance: in 2022, the regulator launched an investor protection campaign targeting gamification and the role of social media “finfluencers” in promoting complex, high-risk products to younger audiences.

Gibraltar licenses first prediction market operator

Gibraltar granted its first license to a prediction market operator at a time when rising UK gambling taxes are putting pressure on the territory’s traditional remote gaming sector. The license, issued on March 26 to Predict Street Ltd, was announced by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham, who highlighted prediction markets as a potential new growth area for Gibraltar.

Predict Street describes itself as the “official prediction market partner” of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and runs its platform on infrastructure provided by a blockchain company based in Abu Dhabi. The move signals Gibraltar’s effort to diversify its gambling and fintech ecosystem by attracting innovative operators in emerging niches such as prediction markets.

CFTC sues states over prediction market overreach

In the US, the CFTC has turned a simmering jurisdictional dispute over prediction markets into a full-scale legal battle with state regulators. The regulator filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, alleging that the states unlawfully interfered with markets that fall under federal oversight.

The CFTC says the states tried to restrict or regulate designated contract markets that already operate with its approval. The regulator argues that the Commodity Exchange Act gives it exclusive authority to supervise event contracts, including those tied to outcomes such as elections or company performance.

At the same time, more than 40 lawmakers led by Senator Elizabeth Warren are pressing federal regulators to crack down on insider trading in prediction markets. It urged the CFTC and the Office of Government Ethics in a formal letter to issue clear guidance reminding federal employees that using non-public government information to trade on these platforms is illegal.

Australia passes AFSL bill to regulate crypto platforms

And in the crypto regulations space, Australia’s Parliament passed legislation bringing digital asset platforms and tokenized custody providers under the country’s existing financial services licensing regime. The move formally places a wide range of crypto-related services within the same regulatory perimeter as traditional financial products.

In 2025, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission clarified that stablecoins, wrapped tokens and tokenized securities are treated as financial products under current law, meaning many providers must now hold a license.

Topstep buys The Futures Desk

At the same time, Topstep acquired The Futures Desk in a bid to strengthen its futures trading education and technology capabilities. The proprietary trading firm said the deal supports its goal of developing more disciplined traders through enhanced tools, coaching and evaluation programs.

The company plans to integrate The Futures Desk’s trading technology into its TopstepX platform. This will provide traders with additional tools for development and performance tracking.

Prop firms curb gold trading

Meanwhile, Philip H. van den Berg, Co-Founder and CEO of Rhodium FX, says more proprietary trading firms are starting to prohibit gold trading for their funded accounts. Speaking on a Thentick podcast, he described this as a growing structural issue for the retail prop trading industry.

He argued that gold’s record-breaking rally has made it unusually easy for retail traders to become consistently profitable, exposing weaknesses in many firms’ payout models. As gold hit successive all-time highs, more traders passed evaluations and reached payout stages, challenging business models that rely on most traders failing or dropping out before significant withdrawals.

Retail investors eye SpaceX

Finally, Wall Street’s largest investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and UBS, are competing for underwriting roles on SpaceX’s planned initial public offering.

Elon Musk’s space company is preparing to raise about $75 billion from public markets. The IPO is expected to value SpaceX between $1.25 trillion and $1.75 trillion. That would make it the largest share offering in capital markets history, with a fundraising target reportedly around three times bigger than Saudi Aramco’s record IPO.

DMM Securities led global FX in 2025

Global retail FX remained highly concentrated in 2025, with Japan’s DMM Securities once again emerging as the clear volume leader. DMM Securities was the top retail FX broker globally, based on Finance Magnates Intelligence data focused solely on FX trading volumes.

Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!).

The Japanese firm recorded an average monthly volume of $1.463 trillion for the year, with activity peaking in the first half of 2025, when monthly volumes were close to $1.69 trillion. This marks yet another year in which DMM Securities has held the number one spot in the global FX rankings.

While the gap between leading Japanese firms is narrowing, the second-ranked broker averaged $1.367 trillion in monthly FX volume in 2025.

Poland’s FX/CFD traders surge 50%

Elsewhere, Poland’s retail FX and CFD market grew rapidly last year, with the number of active traders rising by about 50% to roughly 370,000, according to data from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF). Over the same period, clients collectively lost a record 2.68 billion zlotys, underscoring the high risk attached to leveraged OTC derivatives.

fx cfd poland

The KNF report, which covers the full spectrum of OTC products offered by Polish-licensed brokers, found that total losses were nearly four times larger than total profits generated by winning clients. Around 102,919 active clients ended the year in profit, while 266,818 recorded a net loss, meaning more than 72% of traders lost money overall.

XTB is estimated to have up to 12,000 CFD accounts in France, where the national regulator is considered one of the most active in the European Union.

The broker recently signed a high-profile sponsorship deal with Paris La Défense Arena, Europe’s largest indoor venue, signalling that France is a key strategic market for XTB in 2026. France remains the EU’s second-largest economy, with GDP per capita projected to exceed 51,000 dollars this year.

Why patience wins in volatile markets

Market volatility is inevitable, but trying to predict its ups and downs rarely works. Paul Golden argues that investors who remain calmand stay invested tend to achieve stronger long-term results than those who react impulsively.

He highlights 2025’s strong dividend payouts and increased trading in oil and crypto markets as proof that patience can pay off even when conditions shift rapidly.

Golden also cites data from Schroders’ Duncan Lamont showing that global equities have seen double-digit declines in most years since 1972, yet, historically, annual gains have more than offset those drops. The lesson is straightforward: market corrections are normal, but recoveries are often swift, and disciplined investors who stay the course capture the biggest rewards.

CySEC warns EU on smartphone-fueled risk-taking

In the regulatory front, CySEC Vice Chairman Panikkos Vakkou warned that the explosion of smartphone investing apps, combined with aggressive marketing, is encouraging young and inexperienced investors to take on risks they may not fully understand.

He argues that the EU’s planned Savings and Investment Union should go further by explicitly banning the gamification of investing, such as game-like features and reward mechanisms that can nudge users toward speculative products.

His latest warning builds on CySEC’s earlier stance: in 2022, the regulator launched an investor protection campaign targeting gamification and the role of social media “finfluencers” in promoting complex, high-risk products to younger audiences.

Gibraltar licenses first prediction market operator

Gibraltar granted its first license to a prediction market operator at a time when rising UK gambling taxes are putting pressure on the territory’s traditional remote gaming sector. The license, issued on March 26 to Predict Street Ltd, was announced by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham, who highlighted prediction markets as a potential new growth area for Gibraltar.

Predict Street describes itself as the “official prediction market partner” of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and runs its platform on infrastructure provided by a blockchain company based in Abu Dhabi. The move signals Gibraltar’s effort to diversify its gambling and fintech ecosystem by attracting innovative operators in emerging niches such as prediction markets.

CFTC sues states over prediction market overreach

In the US, the CFTC has turned a simmering jurisdictional dispute over prediction markets into a full-scale legal battle with state regulators. The regulator filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, alleging that the states unlawfully interfered with markets that fall under federal oversight.

The CFTC says the states tried to restrict or regulate designated contract markets that already operate with its approval. The regulator argues that the Commodity Exchange Act gives it exclusive authority to supervise event contracts, including those tied to outcomes such as elections or company performance.

At the same time, more than 40 lawmakers led by Senator Elizabeth Warren are pressing federal regulators to crack down on insider trading in prediction markets. It urged the CFTC and the Office of Government Ethics in a formal letter to issue clear guidance reminding federal employees that using non-public government information to trade on these platforms is illegal.

Australia passes AFSL bill to regulate crypto platforms

And in the crypto regulations space, Australia’s Parliament passed legislation bringing digital asset platforms and tokenized custody providers under the country’s existing financial services licensing regime. The move formally places a wide range of crypto-related services within the same regulatory perimeter as traditional financial products.

In 2025, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission clarified that stablecoins, wrapped tokens and tokenized securities are treated as financial products under current law, meaning many providers must now hold a license.

Topstep buys The Futures Desk

At the same time, Topstep acquired The Futures Desk in a bid to strengthen its futures trading education and technology capabilities. The proprietary trading firm said the deal supports its goal of developing more disciplined traders through enhanced tools, coaching and evaluation programs.

The company plans to integrate The Futures Desk’s trading technology into its TopstepX platform. This will provide traders with additional tools for development and performance tracking.

Prop firms curb gold trading

Meanwhile, Philip H. van den Berg, Co-Founder and CEO of Rhodium FX, says more proprietary trading firms are starting to prohibit gold trading for their funded accounts. Speaking on a Thentick podcast, he described this as a growing structural issue for the retail prop trading industry.

He argued that gold’s record-breaking rally has made it unusually easy for retail traders to become consistently profitable, exposing weaknesses in many firms’ payout models. As gold hit successive all-time highs, more traders passed evaluations and reached payout stages, challenging business models that rely on most traders failing or dropping out before significant withdrawals.

Retail investors eye SpaceX

Finally, Wall Street’s largest investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and UBS, are competing for underwriting roles on SpaceX’s planned initial public offering.

Elon Musk’s space company is preparing to raise about $75 billion from public markets. The IPO is expected to value SpaceX between $1.25 trillion and $1.75 trillion. That would make it the largest share offering in capital markets history, with a fundraising target reportedly around three times bigger than Saudi Aramco’s record IPO.

About the Author: Jared Kirui
Jared Kirui
  • 2727 Articles
  • 53 Followers
About the Author: Jared Kirui
Jared Kirui is an Editor at Finance Magnates with more than five years of experience in financial journalism. He covers online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto industries with a focus on companies, regulation and compliance, executive moves, trading technology, and market analysis. His work has been featured in other media outlets, including Benzinga, ZyCrypto, The Distributed, and The Daily Hodl. Education: Bachelor of Commerce degree (Finance option), University of Nairobi
  • 2727 Articles
  • 53 Followers

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